U.S. Gulf: The UAN barge market was generally quoted in the $260-$265/st ($8.13-$8.28/unit) FOB range, unchanged from the previous report.
Sources reported that East Coast import vessels had softened to $285/mt CFR.
Eastern Cornbelt: The UAN-28 market remained at $270-$280/st ($9.64-$10.00/unit) FOB in Ohio and Indiana, with the low in Cincinnati. UAN-32 was quoted at $308/st ($9.63/unit) FOB Cincinnati and $310-$320/st ($9.69-$10.00/unit) FOB in the Illinois market, with rail-delivered tons pegged at $325-$330/st ($10.16-$10.31/unit) in the region.
Western Cornbelt: The UAN-32 market was unchanged at $305-$320/st ($9.53-$10.00/unit) FOB regional terminals in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported in southern Missouri. An Iowa source quoted the common dealer price at the $315/st ($9.84/unit) FOB level last week.
Southern Plains: UAN-32 was quoted at $295-$300/st ($9.22-$9.38/unit) FOB regional production points in the Southern Plains, with the low end of the regional market reported at the $285/st ($8.91/unit) FOB level out of Gulf Coast terminals.
One source speculated that UAN has lost some demand to urea for wheat topdressing. “We’ll know more about what impact that has as spring opens,” he said.
South Central: The UAN-32 market was unchanged at $290-$305/st ($9.06-$9.53/unit) FOB in the region, with the low again reported at Memphis.
Southeast: The UAN-32 market was generally quoted at $285/st ($8.91/unit) FOB Wilmington, N.C., and Norfolk, Va., with UAN-30 pricing pegged in the $265-$267/st ($8.83-$8.90/unit) range out of port terminals.
U.S. Gulf/River: Ice on the Upper Ohio River severely limited operations, shippers said, with significant delays expected over the next 5-8 days. The Belleville Lock auxiliary chamber was scheduled to reopen Feb. 27.
Repairs to T.J. O’Brien Lock on the Illinois River, underway since Jan. 21, could stretch longer than the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ projected March 8 completion date due to cold weather. Operations on the river, already said to face “major delays” due to the repairs, were further hampered by ice flows.
On the Upper Mississippi River, scheduled maintenance at Lock 27, previously set to run Feb. 18 through March 7, was pushed back to March 2-20 due to extreme weather conditions. Wait times of 2-4 hours were reported at Lock 27 for the week. Upper Mississippi locks are due to begin reopening for the 2015 navigation season starting March 4 with Locks 12 and 13. Locks 17 and 20 are scheduled to come online March 6, and Lock and Dam 5A near Fountain City, Wisc., will reopen March 9, according to the Corps.
Icy conditions persisted on the Allegheny and Monongahela Rivers. The Monongahela’s Braddock Lock and Dam main chamber remained offline last week due to equipment failure, though the site’s land chamber was operational.
Main chamber repairs at the Kanawha River’s Winfield Lock, previously slated to begin Feb. 20, were pushed back to March 31, shippers said. Major delays are expected throughout the operation’s 4-6 week run time.
The Cumberland River’s Cheatham Lock shut down Feb. 21 due to unsafe river conditions. The Corps announced a closure at Old Hickory Lock from July 14 through Aug. 4, with significant transit delays expected.
Tennessee River shipping operators reported navigation slowdowns to Knoxville last week due to heavy barge congestion, and the Wilson Lock main chamber was offline Feb. 23-27 for maintenance. The work was scheduled to continue on March 16-20, and again May 5 through June 11. Wheeler Lock was closed for four hours on the morning of Feb. 23 for lock inspection.
Weir dike construction at Mile 634 on the Lower Mississippi wrapped up on Feb. 23. Gulf-area delays were reported at Industrial Lock (8-10 hours), Bayou Sorrel Lock (1-2 hours), Port Allen Lock (one hour), and Algiers Lock (one hour).
Repairs to the BNSF Railroad vertical lift bridge at Morgan City, La., is expected to slow daytime transit from Feb. 23 through March 7, and normal daylight navigation was slated to resume Feb. 28 at Calcasieu Lock.
Grain Futures: As of 4 p.m. on Feb. 26, soybean futures were higher compared to the week before, but corn and wheat were down.
March 2015 corn was posted at $3.80/bushel, down from the previous week’s $3.8975/bushel. Corn for May 2015 slipped to $3.885/bushel from the prior week’s $3.9775/bushel, while contracts for December 2015 corn were quoted at $4.1375/bushel, down from $4.1975/bushel the week before.
Soybean prices for March 2015 were $10.24/bushel, up from $10.0725/bushel the week before, while May 2015 soybeans rose to $10.265/bushel from the prior week’s $10.1125/bushel. November 2015 soybeans firmed to $9.975/bushel from the previous week’s $9.8625/bushel.
March 2015 wheat punched in at $5.0325/bushel, down from $5.2775/bushel the week before, while May 2015 wheat contracts fell to $5.005/bushel from the previous week’s $5.195/bushel. Wheat for July 2015 was $5.0475/bushel, down from $5.2175/bushel one week earlier.
Eastern Cornbelt: The Eastern Cornbelt remained locked in winter during the final days of February. The week began with 4-6 inches of fresh snowfall in central and northern Illinois, along with freezing rain and accumulating ice in southern areas of the state.
The winter precipitation was accompanied by bitterly cold temperatures in Ohio, with wind chills falling to minus 24 in northeastern areas of the state on Feb. 23-24. The frigid cold was just the continuation of an arctic blast that started in the region on Feb. 19, with actual temperatures dropping on that date to minus 8 degrees in Chicago and minus 6 in Cincinnati.
Western Cornbelt: More snow and bitterly cold temperatures blanketed Iowa in late February. One source said his location received 6 inches at midweek, with temperatures falling to minus 10-15 degrees. Wind chills in central Iowa were reported at minus 30 on Feb. 26-27.
Another storm was expected by the weekend, with snowfall totals ranging from 2-6 inches predicted across Iowa on Feb. 28. Snow was also expected in northern Missouri, further delaying field activities in the region.
Southern Plains: Much of the Southern Plains remained in a winter weather pattern in late February. Local forecasts called for a mix of rain and snow in much of Kansas and Oklahoma by late in the week.
A winter weather advisory was issued at midweek for most of northern Texas as a mix of snow, ice, and freezing rain fell in many areas. Temperatures across the state were some 20-30 degrees below average in late February.
New Mexico was also in the grip of below-freezing temperatures last week, along with rain and snowfall in northern areas of the state.
While most in the region were lamenting the cold temperatures, many hoped for additional moisture. One Kansas source said winter precipitation has been slow and spoon fed in his area. “This all translates into needed moisture to replenish subsoil and to have some runoff to fill ponds and reservoirs,” he said.
South Central: February was drawing to a close with another round of winter weather for the South Central region. The cold weather extended all the way down to Louisiana, where local reports talked of snow in the northern counties and rain in the south.
Much of central and western Arkansas collected 2-3 inches of snow early in the week, with more reported as the week advanced. Southern Kentucky was also bracing for up to 3 inches of snow by Feb. 26, with highs only reaching the 20s. In Tennessee, some eastern and central areas of the state collected up to 4-5 inches of snow last week, with overnight lows dropping to the high teens in Nashville on Feb. 27.
The region’s coldest weather occurred on Feb. 19, when daily record lows in Kentuck
Tampa: The United Steelworkers Union (USW) announced plans last week to expand the first nationwide refinery strike since 1980 to an additional three refineries, bringing the total number of participating facilities to 15.
USW gave notice to Motiva Enterprises of its intent to strike at the company’s 600,250 barrel/d refinery in Port Arthur, Texas, the largest refinery in the nation. The workers also intend to strike at Motiva’s Convent, La., facility and its refinery in Norco, La. The two facilities represent a combined 473,000 barrel/d refining capacity.
USW is seeking to double annual pay raises and strengthen worker safety in its new contract. No date to resume settlement talks had been set as of Feb. 26.
The strike’s effect on domestic sulfur operations has so far been described as minimal by most market sources, but a number of contacts last week said that is no longer the case. “I think this refinery strike is beginning to have an impact on operations,” one industry veteran said. “Turnarounds are being rescheduled, drivers (are) beginning to be reticent to cross picket lines, and management (is) beginning to backfill union positions.”
Refinery utilization fell for a second week, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Domestic capacity was 87.4 percent for the week ending Feb. 20, down 1.3 percent decline from the prior week’s 88.7 percent. The rate was also lower than last year’s 88.0 percent for the same week, but above the five-year average of 85.0 percent.
Average daily crude inputs also fell, coming in at 15.243 million barrels/d, a decline of 199,000 barrels/d from the previous week’s 15.442 million barrel/d average.
The price of molten sulfur delivered to Tampa is $147/lt for the first quarter.
U.S. Gulf: Prices in the Gulf were unchanged at $160-$165/mt FOB.
Vancouver: The Vancouver spot market was quiet last week. That is expected to change, however, when the Chinese market resumes after effectively shutting down in late February for the Lunar New Year celebration. Spot rates for the week were unchanged at $165-$175/mt FOB.
Alberta mega-refiner Syncrude 21 returned to limited production last week. Netbacks were quoted in a range of $5-$85/mt for the region.
West Coast: California sulfur was quoted at $160-$165/mt FOB.
ADNOC: ADNOC’s February sulfur price was $180/mt FOB. An updated price for March is expected soon.
Aramco: Saudi Aramco sulfur was $175/mt FOB for March.
Tasweeq: Tasweeq lowered its price of sulfur sold in the month of March to $164/mt FOB, a decline of $18/mt from February’s $182/mt FOB.
Pakistan: The state-owned Oil & Gas Development Co. Ltd (OGDC) has issued a tender for the sale of 7,500 mt of sulfur from its Dakhni oil field near Jand in the Punjab Province. Bids are due on March 17.
U.S. Gulf: Potash barges were quoted in the $355-$362/st FOB range for the week.
Eastern Cornbelt: Potash remained at $400-$417/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on grade and location.
Western Cornbelt: Potash remained at $405-$417/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the top of the range reflecting reference levels for white granular tons. Most sources reported the bulk of pricing quotes for red potash in the $405-$410/st FOB range last week.
Southern Plains: Potash was unchanged at $400-$405/st FOB regional warehouses in the Southern Plains. Although sources reported slightly cheaper mine prices after netbacks on delivered potash in the region, the Carlsbad, N.M., potash market remained at reference levels of $405/st FOB for 60 percent standard, $410/st FOB for 60 percent granular and 62 percent standard, and $417/st for 62 percent granular.
Sulfate of potash magnesia was unchanged at $375-$390/st FOB Carlsbad, with the low for standard, the upper end for premium grade, and the granular market quoted at $385/st FOB.
South Central: Potash pricing had reportedly slipped to $395-$400/st FOB warehouses in the South Central region, down $10/st from last report, with the low end quoted in the Memphis market last week.
Southeast: Imported potash tons remained at $395/st FOB in the Wilmington market last week. Canadian tons, where available, were pegged at the $407/st FOB mark, with rail-DEL pricing in the $410-$417/st range in the Southeast, depending on grade.
Central Florida: Freezing weather in the Southeast reportedly put a chill on Central Florida demand, causing truck prices to roll off to $445/st FOB from the week-ago highs of $450/st FOB. Prices for rail-loaded DAP held steady around $440/st FOB, though loading for prompt orders would not be available until mid-March.
MAP’s long-running $20/st premium to DAP in Central Florida fell to $15/st last week. The drop reflected MAP’s lack of strength at NOLA, where values have shrunk precipitously relative to DAP in recent weeks.
Sources quoted Central Florida DAP in a range of $440-$445/st FOB, down from the previous week’s range of $440-$450/st FOB. MAP softened to $455-$460/st FOB Central Florida.
U.S. Gulf: Bitter cold and snowy weather in the Midwest, Northeast, and Southeast shut down field application in most of the country for the second straight week, sources said. The lack of end-user demand trickled down to the NOLA market, causing DAP levels to fall off accordingly.
Perceptions were divided on the strength of the market. Some saw DAP holding firm in the mid-$440s/st FOB, while others confirmed transactions in a range of $435-$437/st FOB for the week, the first time the barge market has dipped below $440/st FOB since the first week of January. Trades were reported up to $444/st FOB on the high side, and producers relayed March sales of $450/st FOB.
MAP was equally contentious, with early week trades quoted around $442-$445/st FOB, followed by sales of $438/st FOB reported later in the week.
While the weather was universally tabbed as a major factor in the market’s contraction, others cited a pair of Moroccan vessels rumored to be en route.
The first vessel, said to contain around 80,000 mt of phosphates, was expected to arrive at NOLA on March 13-14, putting the cargo’s discharge too close for comfort to the projected start of the spring season. Sources said a sudden supply spike occurring just before spring demand ramps up could cause prices to backslide.
If weather conditions haven’t improved by the time of the vessel’s discharge, however, some were optimistic that the market would be minimally affected. “By then we’ll see some buying even if the weather continues to be cold,” one trader said, “just because we’ll be getting so close (to spring).”
A second Moroccan vessel, rumored to contain an additional 80,000 mt of product, was reportedly less of a concern because it has not yet begun loading, according to one market source. Were it to begin loading immediately, he said the vessel would arrive no sooner than the end of March.
NOLA DAP barges were quoted in a range of $435-$444/st FOB for the week, down from $443-$449/st FOB the week before. MAP was called $438-$445/st FOB, a decrease from $445-$448/st FOB at last report.
Eastern Cornbelt: DAP was quoted at $480-$490/st FOB regional warehouses in the Eastern Cornbelt, with MAP $5-$15/st higher, depending on location.
10-34-0 was quoted at $550-$560/st FOB for very limited tons in the region.
Agrium’s phos acid postings were scheduled to firm dramatically on March 1, to $1,150/ton of P2O5 for rail-DEL SPA and MGA in Wisconsin and $1,185/ton of P2O5 for rail-DEL tons in Michigan. Those level were up $75/ton of P2O5 from Agrium’s February postings in those states.
Western Cornbelt: DAP remained at $475-$480/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with MAP quoted in the $490-$495/st FOB range.
10-34-0 pricing had reportedly firmed to $545-$560/st FOB for the last tons sold in the region, but availability was a major concern in late February. “Inventories are out,” said one Iowa source.
Eastern Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate was unchanged at $310-$325/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with rail-delivered tons quoted at $315-$330/st.
Ammonium thiosulfate was steady at $345-$350/st FOB in the region.
Western Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate was unchanged at $285-$325/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported in Missouri and the upper end reflecting list prices in the Iowa market.
Ammonium thiosulfate was unchanged at $310-$345/st FOB in the region, depending on location. A Missouri contact pegged the common dealer market in his location at the $325/st FOB level last week.
Southern Plains: The granular ammonium sulfate market remained at $260-$295/st FOB in Texas, depending on location. Coarse grade postings were $10/st less than granular, with standard priced some $20/st lower than granular, where available.
The ammonium thiosulfate market was steady at $295-$305/st FOB in the Southern Plains region.
South Central: Granular ammonium sulfate pricing was steady at $275-$285/st FOB in the South Central region, with the low reported in the Arkansas market.
Ammonium thiosulfate was unchanged at $310-$325/st FOB in the region, with the low at Memphis.
Southeast: Granular ammonium sulfate was quoted at $265-$275/st FOB in the Southeast, with the low at Augusta, Ga. Delivered granular product remained at $270/st in the Carolinas, $280/st in Georgia, and $295/st in Florida. Standard grade ammonium sulfate was pegged at $210/st rail-DEL in Florida.
U.S. Gulf: A dearth of trades left ammonium nitrate barges unchanged at $300-$302/st FOB. Some argued that an ongoing inventory buildup will push prices lower in the next round of business, however.
Western Cornbelt: Ammonium nitrate was quoted at $355-$360/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, where available.
Southern Plains: The Tulsa ammonium nitrate market remained at $345-$350/st FOB.
South Central: Ammonium nitrate was pegged at $345-$350/st FOB in the South Central region.
Southeast: The Tampa ammonium nitrate market was quoted at $355-$360/st FOB.
USDA on Feb. 20 presented its early-season projections for U.S. crop acreage in 2015/16, with corn acreage estimated at 89 million acres, down 1.6 million from the 2014 final estimate and 2.7 million acres below last year’s Prospective Plantings figure. The national average corn yield is projected at 166.8 bushel/acre, 4.2 bushels lower than the 2014 record, with an “assumed return to more normal growing season weather.”
“Corn plantings are projected to decline for a third straight year with further reductions in the outlook for prices and producer returns,” USDA said. “A return to trend yield from last year’s record high also reduces expected production, but a larger carry-in results in supplies being down only slightly from the 2014/15 record.”
USDA said corn production in 2015 is projected at 13,595 million bushels, down 4 percent from the record 2014 crop, but still the third highest ever. U.S. corn ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected at 1,687 million bushels, down 8 percent from the 9-year high forecast for 2014/15. The season-average farm price is projected at $3.50 per bushel, down $0.15 from the midpoint of the projected range for 2014/15.
Soybean plantings for 2015 are projected at 83.5 million acres, slightly below last year’s final estimate, but 2.0 million above the 2014 Prospective Plantings figure. The national average soybean yield is projected at 46.0 bushels/acre, down 1.8 bushels from last year’s record. Soybean production for 2015 is projected at 3,800 million bushels, 4 percent below last year, mainly due to lower yields.
U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected at 430 million bushels, the highest since 2006/07, and 12 percent above the level forecast for 2014/15. With increased soybean supplies, higher ending stocks, and lower corn prices, USDA estimated the season-average farm price for soybeans at $9.00 per bushel, down from the $10.20 mid-point of the 2014/15 projected range.
Wheat planted area for 2015 is projected at 55.5 million acres, down 1.3 million acres from 2014. The 2015 all-wheat yield is projected at 45.2 bushels/acre, up from 43.7 bushels/acre from 2014. As a result, wheat production is expected to increase to 2,125 million bushels despite the lower planted area.
U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected to increase 10 percent from a year earlier, to 763 million bushels. The 2015/16 season-average farm price is projected at $5.10/bushel, down $0.90 from the midpoint of the range projected for 2014/15. USDA said wheat prices are expected to remain under substantial pressure from large world supplies of wheat and corn.
The early USDA projection for 2015 U.S. cotton planted acreage is 9.7 million acres, a decrease of nearly 12 percent from last year, due mainly to relative prices and net returns that favor other crops over cotton. USDA is forecasting a national average cotton yield of 800 pounds/harvested acre, with total U.S. 2015 cotton production projected at 14.0 million bales – 13 percent below 2014, but 8.5 percent above 2013.
The 2015/16 marketing year average price received by U.S. upland cotton producers is projected to range from 55-65 cents/pound, with the mid-point slightly below the 2014/15 estimate of 61 cents per pound. Cotton ending stocks are projected at 4.3 million bales.
Total 2015 rice planted acreage is projected at 2.90 million acres, nearly unchanged from last year, with average field yields forecast at 7,569 pounds/acre, assuming normal weather and planting dates. Total 2015 U.S. rice production is projected to decrease by 1 percent from 2014, to 218 million cwt. Total all-rice ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected at 48.1 million cwt, up 15 percent from 2014/15. The 2015/16 all rice price is projected at $13.10/cwt, down 90 cents from the midpoint of 2014/
Disclaimer of Warranty
All information has been obtained by Green Markets from sources believed to be reliable. However, because of the possibility of human or mechanical error by our sources, Green Markets or others, Green Markets does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, or completeness of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information.
