Agrium Inc., Calgary, has asked the Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority (AIDEA) to consider financing the restart of part of its Kenai Nitrogen Operations (KNO), located in Nikiski, Alaska. Agrium applied for an air permit last fall (GM Nov. 4, p 10; Oct. 14, p. 1), and due to the recent development of gas reserves in the Kenai area, believes that the plant may once again be economical. It closed the complex in 2007 due to limited gas supplies.
Agrium, using one of its U.S.-based subsidiaries, Agrium U.S. Inc., a Colorado corporation, told AIDEA the restart of part of the facility could cost $200 million. The money would go to refurbish and replace equipment and meet environmental requirements for the restart of one ammonia/urea production train.
Currently Agrium is looking at bringing up a 2,250 st/d ammonia plant and a 2,050 st/d urea plant (plants four and five, respectively). Also at the site are another ammonia plant at 1,950 st/d and a urea plant at 1,550 st/d (plants one and two).
In order to bring up the first two plants, Agrium will need to contract for 80 MMCFD (million cubic feet per day) of natural gas from Cook Inlet producers for a term of at least five years at commercially reasonable prices.
Agrium is willing to enter into a Cost Reimbursement Agreement with AIDEA under which Agrium would reimburse the authority for the cost of activities in analyzing whether and how to proceed with the project. AIDEA would review Agrium’s engineering and business plans as well as do an appraisal review of the KNO facilities. The Cost Reimbursement Agreement would not exceed US$100,000.
U.S. Gulf/Tampa: Mosaic concluded a new spot deal last week at the $415/mt CFR mark for late January/early February. Sources put the quantity at 15,000-20,000 mt, and most tabbed Koch as the likely supplier.
While some sources said they were expecting some sort of price drop in the next round of trading, the $35/mt drop took them by surprise. One source said the U.S. fall season was disappointing and had caused an inventory back-up. In addition, reports have circulated in the past few weeks that NOLA ammonia inventories have been building, and more product and pressure might come from that locale, with some exports from the U.S. Gulf reported in late December and early January.
Recent trades from the U.S. and Caribbean to Morocco have been reported in the $425-$435/mt CFR range, and netted back to the Caribbean as low as $365/mt FOB.
February NYMEX gas settled Jan. 16 at $4.382/mmBtu, down from Jan. 9’s $4.005/mmBtu. Prices held firm earlier in the week as cold temperatures gripped the country, but slackened off as the week progressed.
Eastern Cornbelt: The previous week’s deep freeze gave way to much warmer temperatures in the Eastern Cornbelt last week, with highs reported in the mid-40s in northeastern Ohio early in the week. Cooler weather was in store as the week advanced, however, with light snowfall and gusty winds reported in central Indiana at midweek.
Sources reported minimal change to the regional ammonia price, and little new activity to test the market. The anhydrous ammonia market was quoted at $520-$540/st FOB in the region, with the low in Illinois and the upper end in the Indiana market.
Western Cornbelt: Ammonia pricing was quoted at $480-$520/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low in Iowa and Nebraska and the upper end in Missouri for spring prepay. Most sources continued to talk of average to below average spring prepay business in the region.
Delivered ammonia was pegged in the $490-$500/st range in Missouri for prompt material.
Although the bitterly cold temperatures of the previous week had largely subsided in the Western Cornbelt, winter kept its grip on the region last week.
Blizzard warnings were in effect for northwestern Iowa on Jan. 15-16, with severe winds and snowfall reported, and temperatures expected to fall to minus 10-20 degrees by early Jan. 17. High winds and cold weather also battered Nebraska at midweek, with gusts of more than 50 mph recorded in Omaha.
Southern Plains: The anhydrous ammonia market in the Southern Plains was down from last report, with sources quoting the dealer market at $405-$415/st FOB regional production points last week. The upper end of the regional range was pegged at $430-$435/st FOB Kansas pipeline terminals.
Mild temperatures settled over much of the Southern Plains last week, reflecting a drastic change from the previous week’s arctic blast.
One Kansas source said temperatures in his area dipped to a frigid 12 below zero during the peak of the “polar vortex” in early January. By last week, however, temperatures had moved up to the 40s and 50s across Kansas and Oklahoma, with fire weather warnings posted for portions of Oklahoma at midweek due to gusty winds and dry conditions.
The U.S. Drought Monitor for Jan. 14 continued to show severe to extreme drought conditions across eastern Colorado, western Kansas, western Oklahoma, and northern Texas. The entire state of New Mexico was also locked in some form of drought last week, ranging from abnormally dry in the western counties to patchy areas of exceptional drought in central and northeastern New Mexico.
South Central: The South Central region enjoyed much warmer weather last week after experiencing a brutal freeze during the previ
U.S. Gulf: Granular prompt barge prices continued to climb last week. Most said the market had achieved $400/st FOB by week’s end, having worked its way up from $375-$380/st FOB early in the week. Sources continued to cite good demand from Texas and the Southern Plains and lower inventories inland, where buyers have waited to buy.
One source last week wondered if there is enough urea in the system and on the way to serve an early spring. Others wondered if the current price surge might eventually peter out as buyers build supplies.
Chinese granular may fill a void. Sources in the past two weeks said Chinese product at much lower prices was in the U.S. market. Chinese product last week was trading up, starting out at $365/st FOB and reported at $385/st FOB by week’s end.
In the meantime, prills also began to move up, with recent trades at $370/st FOB. Others, citing short supplies, were predicting that $390/st FOB was just around the corner. Sources said that while the Lifeco plant in Libya is in startup mode, production remains too tenuous to assure near-term supplies to NOLA.
Eastern Cornbelt: Urea and phosphate pricing continued to move up quickly in the Eastern Cornbelt, fueled by rapidly firming NOLA barge markets and industry chatter of potentially tight supplies as the spring planting season approaches.
The granular urea market was pegged at a firm $420-$440/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, up some $15-$30/st from the previous week, with the upper end of the range reported on a spot basis as the week progressed.
Western Cornbelt: The granular urea market had reportedly firmed to $420-$430/st FOB regional terminals in the Western Cornbelt, with the higher numbers reported later in the week. That range was up $20/st from the previous week, and a full $45-$55/st higher than prices reported at the start of the new year.
Southern Plains: Fueled by steady demand in the region, a firming NOLA market, and reports of potentially tight supplies in advance of the spring planting season, the granular urea market had firmed to $415-$420/st FOB the Tulsa market, up some $45/st from late December pricing levels, and a full $80/st higher than late November levels.
The Houston urea market had also firmed to the $415/st FOB level last week, up $55/st from late December.
South Central: The granular urea market last week was quoted at $415-$420/st FOB Little Rock, Ark., Memphis, and other terminals in the South Central region, up a full $50/st from late December pricing levels.
One contact said growers and retailers who decided to put off their spring fertilizer purchases may be in for a shock when prices are adjusted to reflect the higher replacement costs.
Southeast: Urea prices were firming rapidly in the Southeast. Sources quoted the market in the $410-$420/st range FOB port terminals, with the upper end the more prevalent number as the week advanced. Reference prices at some locations were considerably higher; sources said urea postings FOB Savannah, Ga., had firmed to $440/st from the previous week’s $390/st level.
Unsettled weather conditions lingered in the Southeast last week, but the previous week’s bitter cold had passed. Sources said temperatures dropped to as low as 7 degrees in North Carolina during early January’s “polar vortex,” and Florida citrus growers were concerned about frost damage.
As the cold weather moved out, however, gusty winds and torrential rains moved in, causing flooding and power outages throughout Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas. Portions of Florida’s Palm Beach County were hit with an incredible 12-23 inches of rain on Jan. 9-10.
More rain and cold weather was in store for parts of the r
U.S. Gulf: UAN barges were moving last week, according to sources, who put early week trades in the $270-$275/st ($8.44-$8.59/unit) FOB range. Sources said it was following urea upward as the week progressed, and by the end of the week trades as high as $285/st ($8.91/unit) FOB were reported.
On the East Coast, the last done business was put in the low $300s/mt CFR, with new quotes at $310-$315/mt CFR.
Eastern Cornbelt: The UAN market in the Eastern Cornbelt was pegged at $9.64-$10.00/unit FOB terminals for prompt tons on the low end, while spring prepay offers were reported at $10.15-$10.40/unit FOB at the upper end of the regional range.
Western Cornbelt: UAN-32 was pegged in the $310-$330/st ($9.69-$10.31/unit) FOB range in the Western Cornbelt, with the low in southern Missouri. Iowa sources quoted spring prepay tons firmly in the $325-$330/st ($10.16-$10.31/unit) FOB range last week.
Southern Plains: The UAN-32 market was up slightly in the Southern Plains, to $285-$290/st ($8.91-$9.06/unit) FOB regional terminals, with the low FOB Verdigris, Okla., and the upper end out of terminals on the coastal bend of Texas. Sources said no tons were available out of Woodward, Okla., until March.
South Central: The South Central UAN-32 market was moving up. Sources quoted the dealer market at $295-$310/st ($9.22-$9.68/unit) FOB in the region, up some $20-$25/st from last report, with the Memphis market pegged at the $300/st ($9.38/unit) FOB level.
Southeast: The UAN market was moving up quickly in the Southeast. Sources quoted the low end of the UAN-30 range at $260/st ($8.67/unit) FOB in the region. UAN-32 pricing out of port terminals had reportedly firmed to $280-$285/st ($8.75-$8.91/unit) FOB last week, up $25/st from late December pricing levels.
U.S. Gulf: The last done NOLA business was put at $300/st FOB, with sources saying quotes are now $315-$330/st FOB, with very little product available. Imports are reported to be in short supply.
Western Cornbelt: Ammonium nitrate was quoted at a firm $350/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt.
Southern Plains: The ammonium nitrate market was tagged at $355-$360/st FOB Tulsa, up roughly $30/st from last report.
South Central: The ammonium nitrate market was firming in the South Central region. Sources pegged the low end of the range at $325/st FOB Yazoo City, Miss., for spring tons, while the Memphis market had reportedly moved to the $350/st FOB mark for new sales.
Southeast: The Tampa ammonium nitrate market remained at $350-$355/st FOB, though some sources said they expect the market to firm to the $360/st FOB level in the near term. Rail-delivered ammonium nitrate was quoted at the $385/st level in the Carolinas last week.
Eastern Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate remained at $270-$280/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt. Granular postings from Honeywell are slated to move on Jan. 24 to $270/st FOB Illinois terminals at Mapleton, Danville, and Granite City, with mid-grade moving to $250/st FOB Danville and Byron, Ill.
Western Cornbelt: The granular ammonium sulfate market was pegged at $265-$275/st FOB in the region, with the low in southern Missouri and the upper end reported in the Iowa market. Agrium’s Jan. 13 granular ammonium sulfate postings include $285/st rail-DEL in North Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.
Granular ammonium sulfate postings from Honeywell are slated to move on Jan. 24 to $270/st FOB Dubuque, Iowa, Omaha, Neb., Roseport, Minn., and Wisconsin terminals at Amherst Junction and Prairie du Chien. Honeywell’s mid-grade postings will move on that date to $250/st FOB Roseport.
The ammonium thiosulfate market remained at $310-$335/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt.
Southern Plains: American Plant Food Corp. (APF) reposted its ammonium sulfate reference prices on Jan. 17, moving up $10/st across the board from its July 8, 2013, postings.
APF’s granular postings in Texas moved on Jan. 17 to $260/st FOB Freeport, $270/st FOB Galena Park, $285/st FOB Fort Worth, and $295/st FOB Littlefield, while coarse postings moved to $250/st FOB Freeport, $260/st FOB Galena Park, $275/st FOB Fort Worth, and $285/st FOB Littlefield. APF’s standard ammonium sulfate postings included $240/st FOB Freeport and $275/st FOB Littlefield, and N-Pac Compacted postings moved on Jan. 17 to $275/st FOB Galena Park.
South Central: Granular ammonium sulfate in the South Central region was up $10-$20/st from last report. The dealer market was tagged at $265-$285/st FOB in the region, with the low at Memphis and the upper end quoted in the Arkansas market.
Effective Jan. 17, APF’s granular postings at Mermentau, La., moved up $10/st to the $285/st FOB level as well.
Southeast: Granular ammonium sulfate was quoted at $255-$265/st FOB in the Southeast, with delivered tons reported at $270-$275/st in the Carolinas, $280/st in Georgia and Alabama, and $285/st in Florida.
Central Florida: Available DAP and MAP quantities were said to be restricted in Central Florida last week, continuing a recent trend of both limited supply and depressed demand.
“Even if you wanted it, you couldn’t get it,” one source said, though a small number of DAP truck sales were found at $400/st FOB, and sources pointed to $440/st FOB as the next level to be tested. Corn planting in Florida could begin as soon as early February in areas with lighter soils, so market activity in the region was expected to pick up soon.
Active weather patterns in the eastern U.S. brought snow, rain, and ice in early January, with locally heavy rainfall reported in areas of the Southeast. Areas of moderate drought in the Northeast diminished slightly, though patches remained in southeast New York, eastern Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine. Abnormally dry conditions continued to be reported in south-central Florida, though the affected area was shrinking.
Though deals were scarce, the DAP range in Central Florida rose to $400-$410/st FOB based on offers and sales, up from the previous week’s range of $365-$375/st FOB. Central Florida MAP was expected to command a $20/st FOB premium over DAP.
U.S. Gulf: The price of NOLA DAP exploded last week. Trades of $385/st FOB kicked off the action at the week’s outset, but quickly escalated to as high as $435/st FOB by Wednesday. Late-week trading was said to have hit $442/st FOB.
Sources speculated that the rise in prices was led by a high volume of paper trades. While spot deals occurred, actual trading was thinner than expected. Prices moved so fast that each barge sold commanded as much as $5/st FOB over the one before, one source said.
The high volatility had a downside, however, as terminal customers suffered sticker shock from the run-up and mostly refrained from buying. Many traders found pricing terminal stock difficult or impossible, and at least one company closed its terminals for business until the market settled down. Those that stayed open put new terminal DAP prices generally in the range of $440-$460/st, depending on location.
Upper Mississippi River traffic was limited at Thebes, Ill., as rock removal continued, and minor delays on the lower Mississippi were expected due to high water conditions. Towing restrictions on the Illinois River were in place thanks to icy conditions, and ice on the Ohio River was expected to slow transit times.
The 4 p.m. Jan. 16 snapshot of the futures market showed corn and soybean prices on the rise, but wheat prices were down. March 2014 corn contracts were $4.28/bushel, up from the previous week’s $4.12/bushel, and May 2014 corn was $4.355/bushel, up from $4.2025/bushel in the last reporting period. December 2014 corn was also pointed north at $4.5225/bushel, ahead of the previous week’s price of $4.4125/bushel.
March 2014 soybeans were $13.15/bushel, up from the previous week’s $12.7375/bushel. The May 2014 soybean price clocked in at $12.9625/bushel, up from the prior week’s $12.55/bushel, while the November 2014 soybean contract traded at $11.2225/bushel, up from $11.01/bushel the previous week.
Prices were down for both March 2014 and May 2014 wheat contracts, which came in at $5.7275/bushel and $5.7975/bushel respectively. Those prices at the last reporting period were $5.8425/bushel for March 2014, and $5.895/bushel for May 2014.
The swift rise in NOLA DAP barge prices led to a wide range of $385-$442/st FOB for the week based on confirmed sales. The previous range was $385-$390/st FOB. MAP prices were expected to carry a $15-$20/st FOB premium over DAP, though no actual sales were confirmed.
Eastern Cornbelt: The DAP market was quoted in a broad range at $440-$460/st FOB regional warehouses in the Eastern C
U.S. Gulf: Potash barge prices continued to erode last week, with most sources putting new trades in the $310-$315/st FOB range. Most attributed the lower barge numbers to the recent drop in warehouse prices in the Cornbelt.
Eastern Cornbelt: Potash was unchanged at $350-$357/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the upper end for white granular tons.
Western Cornbelt: Sources continued to quote the regional potash market in the Western Cornbelt at a flat $350/st FOB for red and $357/st FOB for white granular.
Southern Plains: Potash pricing continued to slide in the Southern Plains, with sources quoting the warehouse market at $350-$355/st FOB in the region. The Carlsbad, N.M., red granular potash market had reportedly slipped to $350/st FOB for recent tons sold into the Texas market, down $25-$30/st from last report.
South Central: Potash pricing in the South Central region was down some $10/st from last report, with the regional warehouse market pegged in the $350-$360/st FOB range.
Southeast: The regional potash market continued to slip in the Southeast. Sources pegged the market at $355-$365/st FOB or rail-DEL in the region, down another $10-$15/st from December pricing levels.
Brazil: Seller price ideas into the country are firming, with suppliers now seeking $320/mt CFR and above for new trades. Uralkali is seeking $350-$360/mt CFR for cargoes beginning in March.
Russia: Uralkali reported a 61 percent increase in potash production for the fourth quarter ending Dec. 31, 2013, to 2.8 million mt from the year-ago 1.8 million mt. Full-year production was up 10 percent, to 10 million mt from 2012’s 9.1 million mt.
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All information has been obtained by Green Markets from sources believed to be reliable. However, because of the possibility of human or mechanical error by our sources, Green Markets or others, Green Markets does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, or completeness of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information.
