All Posts from June 22, 2015

Ammonia

Ammonia, Black Sea, California, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Middle East, Pacific N.W., Tampa, U.S. Gulf, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf/Tampa: The Tampa market remained quiet last week, with a decision for July still to come.

The July NYMEX natural gas price closed June 18 at $2.777/mmBtu, down from June 11’s close at $2.825/mmBtu.

Eastern Cornbelt: The anhydrous ammonia market remained at $595-$615/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt for the last business, with the low in Illinois and the upper end out of Indiana terminals. Sources reported “no activity to speak of” to test the market, however.

Western Cornbelt: Anhydrous ammonia remained at $565-$600/st FOB regional terminals in the Western Cornbelt, with the low in Nebraska and the upper numbers quoted out of terminals in Iowa and Missouri.

California: The anhydrous ammonia market was unchanged at $665/st DEL in California, with aqua ammonia referenced at the $181/st FOB level.

Pacific Northwest: The anhydrous ammonia market was unchanged at $640-$650/st for truck-DEL tons in the Pacific Northwest, although sources said railed tons were available on a spot basis for as low as $610/st at mid-month.

Aqua ammonia was steady at $164-$169/st FOB in the region.

Western Canada: The anhydrous ammonia market was unchanged at $981-$1,026/mt DEL in Western Canada for prompt tons, although sources reported minimal demand and no new business to test the market.

Black Sea: Sources say the slide has stopped, with reports of sales out of Yuzhnyy now pegged at $390-$400/mt FOB. The bulk of the business is still sub-$400/mt FOB, said one trader, who added that anything under $390/mt FOB is long gone.

Even as more deals seem to show a price centered on $400/mt FOB, sources say reported Moroccan business keeps coming up with netbacks of $350-$360/mt FOB.

Some argue that the $400/mt FOB material is based on spot ton quotes and the Moroccan business is long-term contract deals. However, the gap of nearly $40/mt between the two types of deals is an unusual situation.

Smaller deals within the Black Sea show prices closer to the $400/mt FOB level than anything lower, say sources.

Sources say OCP is using their high reserves to pressure sellers to offer lower prices. The tanks at OCP are said to be full, with at least one vessel waiting to be unloaded and another set to arrive later this week.

For now, say sources, the producers in Russia and Ukraine are not agreeing to the dramatically low prices the Moroccans are bidding. At the same time, however, the producers are only able to slowly firm up prices.

Middle East: Sources say the Trammo deals with Sabic late last month remain the benchmark for pricing in the area.

There is discussion of delivered material in Asia at $470/mt CFR with an Arab Gulf equivalent of $420/mt FOB. While the tonnage under discussion in Asia is from Indonesia, sources said the math out of Indonesia argues for higher AG prices.

Sources noted, however, that buyers are not so willing to accept such a dramatic increase in such a short period.

Industrial ammonia buyers say their final products are not selling as well as they would like. Higher prices of inputs such as ammonia will only hurt their ability to sell their products as the global economy slowly gets better.

North African buyer OCP is putting pressure on all its buyers for lower prices. Sources say the company already has about 100,000 mt loaded in its tanks, with one vessel at the docks unable to offload its product. Another vessel is reportedly on its way as well.

The buildup of ammonia is reportedly happening because the final OCP products are not moving as quickly as the Moroccan company would like.

Crops/Weather

California, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

Grain Futures: As of 4 p.m. on June 18, soybean futures were higher, wheat was lower, and corn futures were mixed compared to the week before.

Corn was $3.58/bushel for July 2015, up from $3.565/bushel the week before. The September 2015 corn price had inched up to $3.635/bushel from $3.63/bushel the week before, while trading of December 2015 corn contracts checked in at $3.7325/bushel, down from the prior week’s $3.7425/bushel.

The July 2015 soybean price was $9.7775/bushel, up from $9.40/bushel at last report. Soybeans for August 2015 were also higher, at $9.605/bushel from the previous week’s $9.2275/bushel, while soybeans for November 2015 were quoted at $9.4225/bushel, up from $9.0875/bushel the week before.

Wheat for July 2015 was $4.88/bushel, down from the prior week’s $5.0425/bushel. September 2015 wheat slipped to $4.9325/bushel from $5.115/bushel at last report, while July 2016 wheat contracts were reported at $5.355/bushel, down from $5.515/bushel the week before.

Eastern Cornbelt: Much of the Eastern Cornbelt was hit with heavy rainfall at mid-month, which left fields saturated and many rivers overflowing their banks.

A flash flood watch was in effect early in the week for northern and central Illinois after weekend rains dropped as much as 3-4 inches in areas such as Seneca and Marseilles. Local reports talked of extensive flooding along portions of the Illinois, Des Plaines, and Fox Rivers at midweek, with evacuations in effect for some areas along the Illinois River.

Heavy rains also produced flooding in northern Indiana on June 15-16, particularly along several tributaries of the Wabash River. A flood watch was extended until midweek in central Ohio as well, with flood warnings posted for parts of Marion County along the Scioto River. The Ohio River was expected to crest on June 25 at 5 feet above flood stage at Cairo, Ill.

The plentiful moisture made for good crop conditions in the Eastern Cornbelt. Good or excellent ratings were assigned last week to fully 80 percent of Ohio’s corn crop, compared with 73-76 percent in Indiana and Illinois. Growers were struggling to finish soybean planting, however, which stood at 90-95 percent complete in the region by June 14.

Western Cornbelt: Wet field conditions continued to slow sidedress applications and post-emergence herbicide work in parts of the Western Cornbelt. Sources also reported delays in the completion of soybean planting in the region, particularly in Missouri.

Heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Bill produced rapid rises on both the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers last week. Sources last week said that rainfall totals of 8-12 inches were reported in some areas of eastern Texas and Oklahoma as the tropical storm moved inland last week, with lesser but still significant amounts expected across the central U.S.

The Mississippi was expected to reach more than 5 feet above flood stage at St. Louis, Mo., by June 19, with levels at Cape Girardeau, Mo., likely to crest at 12 feet above flood stage by June 23. The Missouri River was also nearly 6.5 feet above flood stage in Hermann, Mo., on July 17, causing some crop flooding in lowland areas.

Missouri growers were struggling to complete soybean planting, with just 42 percent of the acreage seeded by June 14, well behind the five-year average of 79 percent. By contrast, soybean planting in Iowa and Nebraska had progressed to 91-93 percent by that date. USDA assigned good or excellent ratings last week to fully 84 percent of Iowa’s corn crop, compared with 67 percent in Nebraska and 52 percent in Missouri.

California: Sources reported hand-to-mouth fertilizer purchases in California as the summer growing season continues. No major supply issues were reported,

Sulfuric Acid

Market Watch, Sulfuric Acid, U.S. Gulf

U.S. Gulf: Insiders described the Gulf import market as quiet last week, with prices steady at $75-$90/mt CFR.

PotashCorp officially closed its 500,000 mt/y Geismar, La. sulfuric acid facility on June 18, the company announced. Despite the lost production, sources largely termed the closure a nonevent, with other nearby sulfuric acid plants expected to increase production in response.

Sulfur

Market Watch, Sulfur, Tampa, U.S. Gulf, Vancouver, West Coast

Tampa: Speculation on the third-quarter price of molten sulfur delivered to Tampa began to gain traction last week, with most sources expecting a rollover from the second-quarter contract price of $132/lt.

After a blistering run-up in the China spot market earlier in the year, international prices have largely held flat throughout the second quarter. Prices from producers in the Middle East have inched a few dollars higher in July, though many attribute those changes to fluctuations in the currency markets rather than a shift in sulfur market fundamentals.

Third-quarter negotiations had not begun as of June 18, sources said.

Domestic refinery capacity fell for the week ending June 12, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), sinking to 93.1 percent. Despite the decrease, a 1.5 percent dip from the 94.6 percent utilization cited in the previous report, the numbers represent the highest second-week June total since 96.7 percent utilization was recorded on June 10, 2005.

Current capacity was higher than both the year-ago 87.1 percent and the five-year average of 89.5.
Average daily crude inputs fell to 16.282 million barrels/d, a decrease of 294,000 barrels/d from 16.576 million barrels/d at last check.

U.S. Gulf: Price ideas in the Gulf offshore market were in the $125-$135/mt FOB range, unchanged from last report.

Vancouver: Major players in Vancouver, who were awaiting direction from either the China spot market or a third-quarter settlement at Tampa, called prices flat at $128-$138/mt FOB last week.

Sources said Alberta refiner Syncrude 21 resumed loading last week after an unplanned shutdown that halted production earlier in the month. The facility briefly restarted in late May following a planned 45-day turnaround, but quickly froze production when issues with off-spec hydrogen sulfide resurfaced at load-out.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. remained on turnaround last week.

Alberta netbacks were called (-)$10-$85/mt.

West Coast: Prilled sulfur sold from the West Coast continued to be quoted in the $125-$130/st FOB range. Second-quarter molten contracts fell in a range of $90-$130/lt FOB.

ADNOC: June offers from the Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. were quoted at $145/mt FOB Ruwais, $5/mt higher than the May price of $140/mt FOB.

Aramco: Saudi Aramco’s July price of formed sulfur was $144/mt FOB Jubail, a $2/mt increase from June levels of $142/mt FOB.

Aramco plans to close its 88,000 barrel/d Jeddah refinery before the end of 2016, according to reports. Eroding profit margins resulting from prolonged weakness in the crude market were cited as the reason for the planned closure.

Tasweeq: The June price of Qatar sulfur was listed as $141/mt FOB.

Potash

California, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., Potash Muriate, Southeast Asia, Sri Lanka, U.S. Gulf, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf: The last done potash business was called $315-$320/st FOB. No new prompt business was reported. Price ideas for third-quarter trades were off a few dollars.

Eastern Cornbelt: Potash remained in a broad range at $365-$397/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported out of spot river locations in Illinois and the upper end FOB inland warehouses in Ohio.

Western Cornbelt: The potash market was quoted at $360-$370/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt. Sources reported no summer fill program announcements for potash last week.

California: Potash was unchanged at $518-$535/st FOB warehouses in California, with the low for 60 percent and the upper end for 62 percent granular or soluble. Delivered potash remained at $525-$535/st in the state, depending on grade and location.

Crystalline potassium nitrate was steady at $950/st FOB for bulk and $1,020/st FOB for bags.

Sulfate of potash (SOP) remained at $722-$735/st FOB in the state.

Pacific Northwest: Potash was reported at $460-$475/st FOB in the Pacific Northwest, depending on grade and location. Rail-delivered tons were quoted in roughly the same range last week, with the low reported by Washington sources for 60 percent MOP from Canada. Sources said producers “are not in a hurry to repost until there is more interest in a fill program.”

The potash market FOB Utah mines was steady at $420/st FOB for 60 percent standard and $425/st FOB for 60 percent granular.

The sulfate of potash (SOP) market was unchanged at $737-$747/st FOB in the Pacific Northwest.

SOP Magnesia remained at $481-$501/st FOB in the region.

Western Canada: Potash remained at $470-$480/mt FOB inland warehouses in Western Canada, with the Saskatchewan mine price quoted at $445-$450/mt FOB to Canadian customers. Sources reported no summer fill offers in the region yet last week.

India: ICL said on June 19 that it has signed several contracts for the supply of an aggregate of 835,000 mt of potash to its customers in India, including options. The selling price is $10/mt above previous contracts, and in line with recent business to India.

Sri Lanka: The Ministry of Agriculture has issued a purchase tender for 28,700 mt of standard potash for delivery in 50 kg bags during September. The tender, which closes June 29, calls for shipment in two lots of 12,000 mt and 16,700 mt.

Southeast Asia: Prices remain weak in Indonesia and Malaysia. While sources report that some suppliers have raised their prices to around $330/mt CFR for standard potash in these markets, that level has yet to be achieved.

Indeed, two tenders for a total of close to 20,000 mt of standard material were reported to have concluded recently with Malaysian buyers at just $300/mt CFR. In Indonesia as well, standard potash business is reported at no higher than $320/mt CFR.

Prices in smaller markets in the region, such as Vietnam and Thailand, are reported to be holding at around $330-$345/mt CFR for standard material.

Phosphates

Brazil, California, Central Florida, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Middle East, Pacific N.W., Phosphate Rock, U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

Central Florida: Traders confirmed a number of truck-loaded DAP transactions at $435/st FOB on the Central Florida market last week. Producer prices for DAP trucks were given at $430/st FOB, with MAP called $20/st higher. Prices for rail-loaded product were not disclosed.

With spring planting finished, traders looked toward the third quarter and the possibility of summer fill programs. Hopes were high that summer deals would soon be announced, although sources said nothing formal had been made public as of June 18.

The Central Florida DAP market was quoted in a range of $430-$435/st FOB for truck-loaded product, unchanged from the week before. Price ideas for MAP fell in the $450-$455/st FOB range, with no transactions reported.

U.S. Gulf: Market players were unanimous in their characterization of the week’s NOLA barge market. “It’s slow, the same old slowness we’ve been seeing the last month or so,” said one trader.

With demand stagnant following the end of spring planting, confirmed trading volumes were diminished. Prompt prices held firm, however, tightening to a range of $418-$421/st FOB, while July barges were quoted at $419-$425/st FOB.

Prompt MAP was called $425-$430/st FOB, and last-done TSP barges were quoted at $380/st FOB, with new offers called $385/st FOB.

Sources credited the market’s resilience to ongoing competition against firmer offshore markets, most of which have been mentioned throughout the spring season at a steady $10-$15/st FOB premium to NOLA.

Despite stagnating grain prices that threatened to kneecap end-user demand, NOLA buyers don’t have the leverage to bid prices lower and keep supply from moving offshore, market watchers said.

The NOLA DAP market was quoted in a range of $418-$421/st FOB, compared with the previous week’s $417-$423/st FOB. MAP barges were tagged at $425-$430/st FOB, up slightly from $423-$430/st FOB the week before.

Eastern Cornbelt: DAP was pegged at $455-$460/st FOB out of river warehouses in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the Cincinnati, Ohio, market quoted at the low end of the range. MAP was reported at $465-$475/st FOB in the region, depending on location.

10-34-0 remained at $560-$600/st FOB for the last spot business in the Eastern Cornbelt.

Western Cornbelt: DAP was steady at $450-$460/st FOB in the region, with MAP roughly $10/st higher than DAP.

10-34-0 remained at $565-$590/st FOB for the last confirmed sales. Simplot’s June reference price for super phosphoric acid was $9.70/unit rail-DEL in the Midwest.

California: MAP was steady at $575-$585/st rail-DEL or FOB in California. 16-20-0 remained at $423-$430/st rail-DEL or FOB in the state, while TSP (0-45-0) was unchanged as well at $525/st FOB French Camp.

Phosphoric acid prices were steady at $12.50/unit rail-DEL for SPA and MGA in California, with Simplot posted at the $12.70/unit FOB level for MGA in June. Agrium remained at $1,250/ton of P2O5 for rail-DEL SPA and MGA in California and Arizona for the month of June, but a pricing drop to $960/ton of P2O5 for rail-DEL SPA and MGA is planned for July 1.

10-34-0 was steady at $567-$572/st FOB in California, with 11-37-0 remaining at $623-$628/st FOB El Centro. Both levels will likely change in July as a result of the phos acid pricing change.

Pacific Northwest: MAP was quoted at $555-$575/st rail-DEL or FOB in the Pacific Northwest, depending on location. No summer fill programs were reported in the region yet last week, but several sources said they anticipate some numbers in late June. “This industry continues to come out earlier every year on pricing resets and fill,” said one regional con

Ammonium Sulfate

Ammonium Sulfate, California, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate was steady at $320-$325/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt. Ammonium thiosulfate was unchanged at $335-$360/st FOB in the region.

Western Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate remained at $300-$320/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location, with the low quoted in southern Missouri.

Ammonium thiosulfate was steady at $325-$345/st FOB in the region.

California: The ammonium sulfate market was steady at $270-$325/st FOB in California, depending on grade, location, and supplier, with the low for standard grade and the upper end reflecting Simplot’s posting FOB El Centro.

Ammonium thiosulfate was reported at $275-$300/st FOB Stockton. IRM’s ammonium thiosulfate postings FOB Stockton remained at $275/st FOB for 11-0-0-24, and $300/st FOB for 12-0-0-26.

Pacific Northwest: Sources continued to report the granular and/or premium grade ammonium sulfate market at $300-$310/st FOB and $310-$320/st DEL in the Pacific Northwest, although movement was confined to “bits and pieces” now that the season is essentially over.

IRM’s WesternStandard ammonium sulfate postings remained at $208/st FOB and $218/st DEL in the Pacific Northwest.

Ammonium thiosulfate was steady at $310-$320/st FOB in the region, with the low FOB Kennewick and the upper end FOB Ritzville, Wash.

Western Canada: There were reports of summer fill ammonium sulfate programs circulating at sub-$400/mt DEL levels in Western Canada last week, although these offers were not confirmed. Sources said the last prompt business was in the $525-$545/mt DEL range in the region.

Ammonium Nitrate

Ammonium Nitrate, California, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf: Ammonium nitrate barge prices remained quiet at $260-$265/st FOB.

Western Cornbelt: Ammonium nitrate was steady at $335-$340/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt.

California: AN-20 remained at $310-$320/st DEL in California.

CAN-17 was steady at $315-$352/st FOB in the state, depending on location and supplier, with the upper end at inland desert locations and the low quoted for volume purchases out of port terminals.

Pacific Northwest: CAN-17 remained at $300/st FOB Kennewick, Wash., and $325/st rail-DEL in the Pacific Northwest.

AN-20 was unchanged as well at $260/st FOB Kennewick and $270/st rail-DEL in the region.

Nitrogen Solutions

California, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., U.S. Gulf, UAN, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf: The barge market continued to be called $202-$210/st ($6.31-$6.56/unit) FOB, with some still seeing the next round of sales closer to $210-$212/st ($6.56-$6.63/unit) FOB. Most were awaiting word on official fill programs.

The last done East Coast vessel trades were called $225/mt CFR, with price ideas now $230-$235/mt CFR or higher for the next business.

Eastern Cornbelt: UAN-32 was steady at $285-$295/st ($8.91-$9.22/unit) FOB river terminals in Illinois, with the UAN-28 market quoted at $250-$270/st ($8.93-$9.64/unit) FOB in Ohio and Indiana, depending on location. “Sidedress is dead with the wet weather, and there is no activity for the fall market to test pricing,” said one contact.

Western Cornbelt: The UAN-32 market remained at $285-$300/st ($8.91-$9.38/unit) FOB for prompt tons in the Western Cornbelt, with no confirmed fill programs reported in the region.

California: Sources reported slightly softer UAN prices in California, although demand had slowed considerably.

The UAN-32 market was quoted at $290-$300/st ($9.06-$9.38/unit) FOB import terminals in the state, down $5/st from last report. No rail-delivered pricing was reported last week, though one source said he expects some railed tons to be available in July at lower prices.

Pacific Northwest: Sources reported slightly softer UAN prices in the Pacific Northwest. One contact said those lower prices had also filtered down to the grower, and a “great deal of liquids” was moving as a result.

UAN-32 was quoted at $305-$310/st ($9.53-$9.69/unit) DEL for railed tons in the region, down $5-$10/st from last report. The upper end of the regional range was pegged at the $320-$325/st ($10.00-$10.16/unit) level for truck-DEL material, which also reflected a $5-$10/st drop.

Western Canada: UAN-28 remained at reference levels of $427-$443/mt ($15.25-$15.82/unit) DEL in Western Canada for prompt pull, depending on location. No UAN summer fill programs were reported in the region last week.

Urea

Black Sea, California, China, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Middle East, Pacific N.W., Pakistan, Southeast Asia, U.S. Gulf, Urea, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf: The prompt granular barge continued to be strong last week. Barge trades were reported as high as $380/st FOB, with most sources quoting trades within the $345-$360/st FOB range. However, toward the end of the week there were reports that prices were starting to erode, with product offered as low as $340/st FOB.

July price ideas were off significantly into the low $300s/st FOB, according to some sources, although others were far more bullish.

The last done prills continued to be called $295/st FOB, with no prompt material available. July quotes were $312-$315/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt: Granular urea remained in a broad range at $375-$395/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low end reported out of spot river locations and the upper numbers inland.

Western Cornbelt: Granular urea was quoted in a broad range at $375-$400/st FOB in the region, with the upper end reported on a spot basis in rice topdressing areas of Missouri. Sources continued to report tight supplies fueled by river logistics.

California: Granular urea was reported at $380-$390/st FOB port terminals in California, down roughly $5/st from last report. No current delivered pricing was confirmed in the state last week. “There is not much new business being booked,” said one contact.

Pacific Northwest: Granular urea remained at $365-$375/st FOB port terminals in the Pacific Northwest, with reports of railed tons from the Midwest being quoted at the $395/st DEL level in the region.

Western Canada: Fertilizer pricing in Western Canada was transitioning from prompt to fill pricing last week, at least for some products.

The last prompt urea business was quoted in the $590-$600/mt DEL range. There were unconfirmed reports last week, however, of summer fill offers circulating in the $485-$500/mt DEL range in the region.

India: The STC tender closed Friday, June 19, with about 2 million tons offered. Prices were a bit softer than expected, but still higher than the recent IPL tender. Even the lowest prices submitted came in about $20/mt higher than just a month ago.

A preliminary look at the offers has Samsung the lowest at $315.85/mt CFR to any east coast port. Subsequent other offers go to Fertisul’s $319.75/mt CFR, also for the east coast. Negotiations are expected to kick in right away as STC tries to round down some prices and then encourage others to match the low-end offers.

A full report on the tally, along with a table of the offers, will appear in the next issue of Green Markets.

Sources were at a loss to explain why the tender fell to STC instead of MMTC. In the past, the three importers – IPL, STC, and MMTC – would rotate one after another until the necessary tonnage was purchased for each application season.

Sources in Asia say they have not heard any official reason why MMTC was skipped, but some relayed rumors that an MMTC subsidiary caused the trouble. It seems MTPL, an MMTC subsidiary, did not come through with its award in the April 10 STC tender. Rumors were circulating in India that MMTC needs to pay a penalty for the undelivered MTPL tons.

Sources say this tender is especially important to India. The earlier STC tender did not yield the level of offers expected because of disputes over the method of payment. It now looks as if last month’s IPL tender will result in purchases of 700,000-720,000 mt instead of the anticipated 1 million mt. The last of the IPL tender will be loaded this week, say sources.

Industry watchers noted that STC is only giving sellers about five weeks to ship their product. To some traders, the short load time indicates that India desperately need

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