Juneau — Alaska House Speaker Mike Chenault, who represents the Cook Inlet area, has introduced a bill to the Alaska House of Representatives that would allow a tax credit to ammonia and urea producers. The tax credit would be equal to the royalty paid by that manufacturer’s gas suppliers on their state leases, according to the Peninsula Clarion. Agrium Inc. is currently weighing whether to return part of its Kenai nitrogen complex to production. An Agrium spokesman said the bill would be a factor in a final decision on whether to reopen the plant. A move to give Agrium some $50 million in incentives to revive the plant was pulled from a bill last year (GM April 28, 2014).
U.S. Gulf: While new barge trades were reported last week as high as $362/st FOB, others said Belarus tons were available for as low as $355/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt: Potash was unchanged at $400-$417/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on grade and location, with the upper end reported for white granular tons. The low was for red potash in the Cincinnati market.
Western Cornbelt: Potash remained at $405-$417/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the top of the range reflecting reference levels for white granular tons, though some described the market as “sloppy.” Sources reported the bulk of pricing quotes for red potash in the $405-$410/st FOB range last week.
Northern Plains: Potash pricing to U.S. customers FOB Saskatchewan mines remained at reference levels of $365/st for standard, $370/st for granular, and $377/st for soluble, with reports of limited tons available for spring. Delivered potash in North Dakota was quoted in the $390-$410/st range, depending on grade and location, while the warehouse price FOB the Twin Cities was pegged at $400-$405/st.
Northeast: Potash was steady at $407/st FOB Baltimore for 60 percent coarse tons, with white granular and/or soluble potash roughly $10/st higher on a spot basis. Rail-DEL potash remained in a broad range at $417-$427/st in the Northeast, depending on grade and location.
Eastern Canada: Although dealers were still receiving potash shipments ordered earlier at the $505/mt FOB level, sources said the regional warehouse market had firmed to $555/mt FOB in Eastern Canada for new replacement tons.
Sulfate of potash was essentially unavailable in the region due to very tight supply. One source reported rumors of replacement costs as high as $1,100/mt FOB, but that level was not confirmed.
The SOP Magnesia market was also extremely tight, with sources claiming that no spot tons were available in the region “at any price.”
Sri Lanka: The Agriculture Ministry closed a tender for 23,000 mt of MOP on Feb. 16. Unlike its urea counterpart, few companies participated.
Central Florida: Spiking demand from the Southeast states propped up prices in Central Florida last week.
Truck sales drove the market, pushing rates to $445-$450st FOB, sources said. Railcars were expected to lag the truck market by $5/st or so, and “serious rail constraints” necessitated a greater-than-average reliance on truck-loaded offerings. The logistics issues likely pushed new business toward the higher end of the range by the end of the week, one source speculated.
New rail orders would load no earlier than mid-March, sources reported.
Central Florida DAP was quoted in a range of $440-$450/st FOB, an increase from the previous week’s $435-$445/st FOB. MAP continued to command a $20/st FOB premium to DAP.
U.S. Gulf: Cold weather froze the NOLA barge market last week, stifling terminal demand and diminishing activity on the river. Volume traded was lower overall, but DAP prices nevertheless firmed to a range of $443-$449/st FOB. Others claimed DAP could be had for as little as $440/st FOB, though no trades could be confirmed at that price.
Sources blamed the slowdown on cold weather in the Mid-South. Southern phosphate application that began earlier in February reportedly ground to a halt, and lingering cold-weather conditions in the North and Midwest kept farmers from beginning early application.
Snug supply continued to support prices, observers noted. Producers offered tons for second-half March and April at $450-$455/st FOB, but nearby availability was primarily trader-offered.
Concern remained regarding the timing of Moroccan imports that were rumored to be on the horizon. Market sources said they expected a pair of vessels totaling 160,000 mt to arrive for NOLA discharge in the near future, but precisely when the product materializes could affect the market in widely varying ways.
If the weather has warmed to the point of allowing widespread fieldwork, the inbound cargo would be expected to simply balance the market and meet demand, observers said. Should it arrive before the weather relents and fields have thawed, however, then prices will likely tumble.
Additionally, a third Panamax vessel was rumored to be in port at Morocco and destined for the U.S., but it was unknown whether the cargo would be offered at NOLA or discharged elsewhere.
One contact mentioned that a drop in freight prices for Panamax-sized vessels available for NOLA discharge could also potentially cloud the import landscape. “Vessels from China, Mexico, Morocco – they’re all way down right now,” he said. “You could get a (Panamax vessel) from Morocco for like $10/t.” Some speculated as well that the freight savings could incentivize importers to move on transactions sooner rather than later.
A number of sources had previously speculated that freights could see an increase following the institution of low-sulfur fuel surcharges in Sulfur Emission Control Area (ECA) zones starting Jan 1. However, after several weeks of operating within the updated rules, sources universally agreed that the surcharges have had no discernible effect on the import market.
The NOLA barge market firmed to a range of $443-$449/st FOB, up from the previous week’s $440-$447/st FOB. MAP was $445-$448/st FOB, unchanged from the week before.
Eastern Cornbelt: DAP was quoted at $480-$490/st FOB regional warehouses in the Eastern Cornbelt, up slightly from last report. MAP was $5-$15/st higher than DAP, depending on location, with the low end of the MAP range pegged at $485/st FOB Cincinnati.
10-34-0 was steady at $540-$550/st FOB for limited tons in the region. Several sources reported that they were “waiting on acid cars,” fueling speculation about continued tight 10-34-0 supplies
Eastern Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate was steady at $310-$325/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with rail-delivered tons quoted at $315-$330/st.
Ammonium thiosulfate remained at $345-$350/st FOB in the region.
Western Cornbelt: The granular ammonium sulfate remained in a broad range at $285-$325/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the upper end reflecting January list prices in the Iowa market. The low end of the range was reported in Missouri, where sources said pressure was being exerted from cheaper Chinese tons on the river system.
Ammonium thiosulfate was unchanged at $310-$345/st FOB in the region, depending on location.
Northern Plains: The granular ammonium sulfate market remained at $300-$310/st FOB in the Northern Plains, with delivered product referenced in the $320-$330/st range, depending on location. There were reports of lower quality Chinese tons circulating in the Twin Cities market at much lower prices, but sources generally talked of tight inventories in the region.
The ammonium thiosulfate market remained at $320-$350/st FOB for spring tons in the Northern Plains, depending on location.
Northeast: Granular ammonium sulfate was tagged at $285/st FOB and $305-$315/st DEL in the Northeast.
Eastern Canada: Granular ammonium sulfate pricing had firmed to $445-$450/mt FOB in Eastern Canada, up some $15-$35/mt from last report, depending on location.
The ammonium thiosulfate market was pegged at $450-$470/mt FOB in the region.
U.S. Gulf: UAN barges continue to be quoted generally in the $260-$265/st ($8.13-$8.28/unit) FOB range, though players argue that prices are headed in both directions.
Import vessels were another matter. Sellers were generally quoting $300-$305/mt CFR for East Coast vessels just a few weeks ago, but those price ideas have fallen off, with demand low due to full tanks. As a result, players last week were calling the market $285-$290/mt CFR, with others arguing that the low $280s/mt CFR would have to be offered to garner any business.
Eastern Cornbelt: The UAN-28 market remained at $270-$280/st ($9.64-$10.00/unit) FOB in Ohio and Indiana, with the low for prompt tons in Cincinnati and the upper end out of inland terminals on a spot basis. The UAN-32 market was steady at $310-$320/st ($9.69-$10.00/unit) FOB and $325-$330/st ($10.16-$10.31/unit) rail-DEL in the Illinois market.
Western Cornbelt: UAN-32 was pegged at $305-$320/st ($9.53-$10.00/unit) FOB regional terminals in the Western Cornbelt, with both the high and low ends reported in the Missouri market, depending on location. An Iowa source quoted the common dealer price at the $315/st ($9.84/unit) FOB level last week.
Northern Plains: UAN-28 was quoted at $290-$305/st ($10.36-$10.89/unit) FOB in the Northern Plains, with the low in the Twin Cities and the upper end for spring tons out of terminals in North Dakota.
Northeast: The Baltimore, Md., UAN market was pegged at $285-$290/st ($8.91-$9.06/unit) FOB for UAN-32 and $267.70-$270/st ($8.92-$9.00/unit) FOB for prompt UAN-30 tons. One source reported earlier UAN-30 prepay offers in the $277-$282/st ($9.23-$9.40/unit) FOB range, with the low for April and the upper end for May and June delivery, but it was not clear if those offers were still on the table last week.
Out of terminals in upstate New York, the UAN-32 market remained at $336/st ($10.50/unit) FOB.
Eastern Canada: UAN-28 was tagged at $355-$360/mt ($12.68-$12.86/unit) FOB in Eastern Canada, up roughly $20/mt from January pricing levels.
U.S. Gulf: While President’s Day trades were reported as high as $315-$317/st FOB, granular prompt prices dropped as the week progressed, falling to $310/st and then to $302-$305/st FOB before winding up at the last reported $299/st FOB level. Sources said there was a lot of product out there, and more on the way.
Prills remained in the $315-$322/st FOB range.
Eastern Cornbelt: Granular urea was quoted at $355-$375/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, down $10/st from last report, with the low end of the range reported in the Cincinnati, Ohio, market last week.
Western Cornbelt: Granular urea remained at $365-$385/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported out of river terminals in Missouri and the upper end in Iowa.
Several regional sources said they continue to expect a big spring for fertilizer demand, but logistics remain a concern. One contact said the timeliness of rail deliveries has improved in recent months, though delays persist.
Northern Plains: Sources reported a wide range of urea pricing in the Northern Plains last week, depending on location and time of delivery. The market out of North Dakota terminals ranged from $405-$415/st FOB, depending on location, with the spring prepay market generally trading about $5/st higher than prompt. Prompt delivered urea was quoted at the $435/st level in North Dakota.
The last spot business for urea out of the Twin Cities market was reported in the $360-$370/st FOB range, but some sources said the market for river open tons had reportedly slipped to as low as $350/st FOB at that location, fueled by a softening NOLA barge market. One supplier was also reported to be offering rail-delivered urea into the region for as low as $390-$395/st for April shipment.
Northeast: Granular urea was reported at $380-$385/st FOB Fairless Hills, Penn., and East Liverpool, Ohio.
Eastern Canada: The granular urea market was quoted at $530-$540/mt FOB Ontario terminals.
India: The tonnage from the MMTC tender is flowing in. Sources say things will slow down a bit until the end of the month, but only because of the delays in the Chinese ports due to the Lunar New Year celebrations.
The MMTC tons are not expected to be used in the current season, which ends just as the last of the material will arrive in the country. Sources say it will most likely be used for some summer applications and to jump-start reserves for the fall season, beginning in July.
The Modi government has bristled at accusations that it has not provided for enough urea. The fertilizer ministry said 7.3 million mt were imported April 2014-January 2015, about 500,000 mt more than the same period a year ago. At the same time, the government said it had put aside about 3 million tons for use through this month against an estimated demand of just under 1.7 million tons.
The complaints of limited urea supplies came with news that third-quarter 2014 imports were lower than previous years. The government countered that existing reserves and domestic production would ensure enough tonnage to see the application season through.
As demand stepped up, new purchases were authorized to provide a buffer for the current season, and also to provide enough material for the start of the summer and fall applications. According to a government statement, the January MMTC tender was designed specifically to ensure enough tons for the upcoming applications.
Even as the government tries to placate angry farmers over perceived shortfalls in urea stockpiles, it must also face complaints from domestic urea producers. Reports out last week from the Fertilizer Association of India (FAI) show that many domestic producers are teeteri
U.S. Gulf/Tampa: March business was concluded at Tampa at $475/mt CFR, down $20/mt from February’s $495/mt CFR. Sources said most players were predicting at least some fall off for March from February. April appears less certain.
March NYMEX natural gas closed Feb. 19 at $2.834/mmBtu, up from Feb. 12’s $2.713/mmBtu.
Eastern Cornbelt: Sources continued to report the anhydrous ammonia market out of Illinois terminals at $610-$615/st FOB for prompt and $625/st FOB for prepay. The Indiana terminal market was pegged $10/st higher, with the prepay market quoted at the $635/st FOB level last week.
Western Cornbelt: Sources reported slightly softer prices for anhydrous ammonia in the Western Cornbelt. The range out of Iowa terminals was quoted at $575-$605/st FOB, with the lower numbers on the western side of the state and the higher end in eastern Iowa. The Palmyra, Mo., ammonia market was pegged at $610/st FOB.
Delivered ammonia from southern production points ranged from $580-$615/st in the region, with the low reported in Nebraska and the upper end in Missouri.
There were reports of low-priced ammonia tons moving briefly into eastern Iowa in the mid- to upper-$500s/st from East Dubuque, Ill., but those sales were short-lived and reportedly off the table last week. The low prices were attributed by industry sources to a quick sale of extra tons due to a pressure vessel leak at the plant, but Rentech Nitrogen told Green Markets on Feb. 19 that the company has suffered “no issues or leaks” at the East Dubuque plant.
Northern Plains: The ammonia market was pegged at $600-$610/st FOB in Minnesota, with delivered tons reported in the $630-$635/st range in North Dakota. There were reports of spring prepay also being offered at the $630/st level FOB Velva, N.D.
Sources continued to report inventory and logistics concerns ahead of the spring planting season. “Some are not covered well, and there is a trucking concern once we get going,” said one regional contact.
Eastern Canada: The anhydrous ammonia market FOB Courtright, Ont., had reportedly firmed to the $885/mt level for spring tons, up some $50/mt from last report.
Disclaimer of Warranty
All information has been obtained by Green Markets from sources believed to be reliable. However, because of the possibility of human or mechanical error by our sources, Green Markets or others, Green Markets does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, or completeness of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information.