IPL Impacted by Weather, Plant Problems, Gas Prices; Gibson Island Decision Imminent
Incitec Pivot Ltd. (IPL) reported a 72 percent drop in net profit after tax (NPAT) excluding individually material items (IMI) to A$41.9 million for the first-half ending March 31, 2019, from the year-ago $147.1 million. Statutory NPAT was up at $41.9 million from $7.6 million. EBIT was $118.7 million, up from $4.3 million, while EBITDA was $264.2 million versus $148 million. Revenues were up at $1.74 billion from $1.68 billion.
The company cited a $60 million impact from the Queensland rail outage on Phosphate Hill earnings and $16 million from increased costs, driven by elevated gas pricing following a third-part gas supply disruption to the St. Helens, Ore., site. There was also a $65 million decrease due to the impact of significant outages at the Waggaman, La., ammonia plant ($45 million) and Phosphate Hill ($20 million). Australian fertilizer sales were down $21 million due to drought.
First-half Waggaman EBIT was off 79 percent, to US$10 million on total revenues of $88.6 million (external customers) from the year-ago $48 million and $101.5 million, respectively. Tons sold were off 10 percent, to 384,300 mt from 449,600 mt, while tons produced were off 35 percent, to 287,700 mt from 441,200 mt.
An external power failure in January uncovered several defects in the Waggaman CO2 recovery system. The company noted that operational disruptions are not uncommon for a relatively new plant. The plant was offline about 50 days in the first-half. IPL said the root causes were identified, and repairs and upgrades completed. It also undertook additional maintenance, allowing the next planned turnaround to be deferred 12 months to early fiscal year 2021. There was a first-half EBIT impact of $45 million (US$32 million).
The company said compressor electronic controls issues that arose in late March were rectified in mid-April, and that the plant has since been operating consistently.
The first-half realized ammonia price was $297/mt, up from the year-ago $285/mt. Realized gas costs were up at $3.59/mmBtu from $3.10/mmBtu, while gas efficiency was at 36/mmBtu per mt versus the year-ago 32/mmBtu per mt. The average six-month Tampa price was $315/mt CFR, up from the year-ago $300/mt.
Expected ammonia production for the second-half is 370,000-400,000 mt, and full-year 660,000-690,000 mt. The gas conversion rate for the second-half is seen as 33 mmBtu, with full-year at 35 mmBtu. The company is estimating a second-half Henry Hub gas cost of $2.77/mmBtu, and $3.08/mmBtu for the full-year. Estimated Tampa ammonia prices for the second-half are $285/mt, with $298/mt for the full-year.
The company saw a $16 million (US$12 million) impact from the October 2018 rupture of the Enbridge natural gas pipeline at its St. Helens plant. It noted that all of the U.S. Northwest experienced significantly higher gas prices during the supply curtailment. It said gas prices are now trading lower within historical levels. The unit is within the company’s Dyno Nobel Americas Agriculture & Industrial Chemicals (Ag & IC) unit.
The Ag & IC unit reported a first-half EBIT loss of $2.7 million on revenues of $56.3 million, compared to the year-ago loss of $300,000 and $47.7 million, respectively. The company said its Cheyenne, Wyo., plant operated reliably during the half, with ammonia production up 14 percent and UAN 42 percent compared to year-ago levels, mainly due to an extended turnaround in the year-ago period.
Phosphate Hill first-half production was off 32 percent, to 311,900 mt from 459,800 mt. The facility had an EBIT loss of $28.9 million on revenues of $187.8 million, compared to the year-ago positive $23.3 million and $242.1 million, respectively.
IPL said it lost some 250,000 mt of production for fiscal year 2019 due to the 100-year flood that caused a late-January through end-April rail closure between its Phosphate Hill plant and Townsville. Production restarted in mid-May. The first-half EBIT impact was $60 million, with $55 million expected in the second-half.
There was also a $20 million EBIT impact due to manufacturing issues at the Phosphate Hill facility because of a phosphoric acid reactor integrity issue, resulting in significant downstream impact. A comprehensive review of linings has been completed and a sequenced reline of two small reactors will be completed in 2019, with no expected impact on production rates.
The company expects a decision soon on the future of its Gibson Island nitrogen plant. The company is in ongoing discussions for a gas supply agreement through 2022. The company has a temporary one-year gas contract that runs through Dec. 31, 2019. If one is not forthcoming at the right price, IPL said it will close the plant, which employs 450.
Analysts told Australia’s Financial Review that IPL is hard-pressed to find a gas contract with a price that will economically keep the aging plant afloat. The latest revised closure costs are $65-$75 million. The closure assumes that ammonia will be imported through the existing storage tank to support IPL’s Big N business and industrial customers, reducing the available land for sale, with those proceeds now seen as $30 million. The distribution center at the site will remain to service customers.
Gibson Island first-half urea equivalent production was down 38 percent, to 136,900 mt from 220,100 mt, though this was due to a planned outage for maintenance.
IPL said 2019 EBIT is skewed to the second-half given the significant level of non-recurring items in the first-half, though this excludes any one-off costs should it decide to close the Gibson Island plant. It said it is well positioned to benefit from expected improved second-half demand. IPL cut its dividend from 4.5 cents to 1.3 cents.
Dyno Nobel Americas US$ M
| Revenues | 1H-19 | 1H-18 | Change% |
| Explosives | 388.2 | 377.4 | 3 |
| Waggaman | 88.6 | 101.5 | (13) |
| Ag & IC | 56.3 | 47.7 | 18 |
| Total | 533.1 | 526.6 | 1 |
| EBIT | 1H-19 | 1H-18 | Change% |
| Explosives | 55.4 | 54 | 3 |
| Waggaman | 10 | 48 | (79) |
| Ag & IC | (2.7) | (0.3) | (800) |
| Total | 62.7 | 101.7 | (38) |
| Australian $ | |||
| Revenue | 744.9 | 677.8 | 10 |
| EBIT | 87.9 | 130.9 | (33) |