Nitrogen Solutions

U.S. Gulf: The UAN market remained inactive at $235-$245/st ($7.34-$7.66/unit) FOB. East Coast vessel business was called $250-$255/mt CFR.

Some market watchers said increased NOLA exports of UAN have kept pressure off building inventories. Exports for the fertilizer year ending June 30 were up 41 percent, to 398,150 st from the prior year’s 282,884 st. Big increases in volumes went to both France and Argentina.

UAN imports surged 48 percent in June, to 282,559 st from the year-ago 190,445 st. Despite the uptick, imports for the fertilizer year ending June 30 were down 20 percent, to 3.08 million mt from 3.86 million st.

Eastern Cornbelt: UAN-32 was steady at $290-$295/st ($9.06-$9.21/unit) FOB Illinois terminals, with the UAN-28 market quoted at $255-$265/st ($9.11-$9.46/unit) FOB in Ohio and Indiana.

Western Cornbelt: The UAN-32 market remained at $294.40-$310/st ($9.20-$9.69/unit) FOB regional terminals in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location.

California: UAN-32 continued to be quoted at $310-$320/st ($9.69-$10.00/unit) FOB most terminals in California, with dealer postings ranging broadly from $320-$360/st ($10.00-$11.25/unit) FOB and up to $365/st ($11.41/unit) DEL, depending on location and supplier.

“Very few loads are being bought at these levels as dealers are now going through their commitments made at fill levels a while back,” reported one regional contact.

Pacific Northwest: The UAN-32 market was quoted at $340-$350/st ($10.63-$10.94/unit) DEL in the Pacific Northwest. Sources said dealers continued to place orders to cover their fall needs, with some reportedly expressing interest in booking tons for 2015 due to anticipated price increases.

Western Canada: UAN-28 remained at $335-$350/mt ($11.96-$12.50/unit) DEL in Western Canada.

Sulfuric Acid

U.S. Gulf: Sulfuric acid delivered by vessel in the Gulf of Mexico was called $60-$65/mt CFR.

More than 800,000 people were affected in northern Mexico on Aug. 6 when 10.6 million gallons of sulfuric acid leaked from a holding pond at the Buenavista Copper Mine in Sonora. The acid spilled into the Sonora and Bacanuchi rivers, which spread the caustic material across much of northern Mexico. The spill resulted in the closure of 88 schools, impacting roughly 5,000 children, until acid in the rivers returned to acceptable levels.

Mexican authorities attempted to neutralize the spill by dumping tons of calcium into the affected river stage, but unsafe quantities were still detectable more than a week later. Officials blamed the spill on either a design or construction flaw in the holding pond, along with negligence on the part of mine supervisors.

The mine, owned by Grupo México, produces 200,000 mt/y of copper and is one of the largest copper mines in the world.

U.S. Imports: June imports were up 23 percent, to 315,702 st from the year-ago 225,671 st, while fertilizer year imports were up only 4 percent, to 3.35 million st from 3.22 million st.

Sulfur

Tampa: Sources reported a number of operational issues experienced by Gulf Coast refineries for the week.

The issues, described as “both planned and unplanned maintenance,” reportedly contributed to some production loss. The outages were not thought to have significantly affected market supply, however, as overall domestic refinery output has remained strong to date.

Sources said the first of Mosaic’s solid sulfur import vessels had already been melted and processed into the phosphate giant’s inventory. A second vessel was reportedly en route, and Mosaic’s sulfur supplies were said to hover “near the top” of total inventory capacity.

U.S. refinery utilization bounced sharply for the week ending Aug. 15, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, ending a three-week slide that began in late July. Total capacity was put at 93.4 percent, the highest August utilization percentage since 2005, and a 1.8 percent increase over the previous week.

The number also beat the 91.0 percent posted for the third week of August 2013, and bested the five-year-average of 90.7 percent as well.

The price of molten sulfur delivered to Tampa was $136/lt, a $3/lt bump from the $133/lt DEL price in the second quarter.

U.S. Gulf: The Gulf price of sulfur was $145-$150/mt FOB.

Vancouver: The spot price of sulfur at Vancouver was called $140-$170/mt FOB, unchanged from the previous week. Sources were keeping a close eye on the fallout from softening prices at China, however, which may have the eventual effect of reducing levels at Vancouver.

Sulfur sold from Alberta was quoted in a range of (-)$20-$80/mt.

West Coast: West Coast sulfur was static at $140-$145/mt FOB.

Benelux: The price of Benelux sulfur remained $158-$172/mt for the third quarter.

ADNOC: ADNOC sulfur was $175/mt for the month of August.

U.S. Imports: June sulfur imports were off 54 percent, to 110,184 st from the year-ago 237,581 st. Fertilizer year imports were off 16 percent, to 1.99 million st from 2.37 million st.

The Week in Fertilizer Stocks

The Week in Fertilizer Stocks

Producer Symbol Price Week Ago Year Ago
Agrium AGU 93.71 90.96 85.28
CF Industries CF 258.70 247.43 191.00
CVR Partners UAN 16.10 16.44 18.57
Intrepid Potash IPI 15.95 14.99 12.16
Mosaic MOS 47.55 45.96 40.97
PotashCorp POT 35.53 34.73 29.33
Rentech Nitrogen RNF 15.71 14.81 26.03
Terra Nitrogen TNH 152.00 152.13 210.92
Distribution/Retail
Andersons Inc. ANDE 64.98 62.63 66.15
Deere & Co. DE 86.21 84.89 82.51
Scotts SMG 59.53 57.11 54.13

Potash

U.S. Gulf: Recent potash barge trades continued to be put in the $367-$375/st FOB range.

MOP imports shot up in June by 46 percent, to 1.01 million st from the year-ago 694,804 st. Fertilizer year imports were up 3 percent, to 10.71 million st from 10.35 million st.

Eastern Cornbelt: The potash market was quoted firmly in the $400-$417/st range FOB regional warehouses in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on grade, location, and supplier.

Western Cornbelt: The potash market in the Western Cornbelt continued to be quoted firmly at the $400-$410/st FOB level for red and $407-$417/st FOB for white granular tons.

California: Potash was unchanged at $498-$515/st FOB in California, with the delivered market pegged at $505-$515/st.

Crystalline potassium nitrate was steady at $950/st FOB for bulk and $1,020/st FOB for bags.

The sulfate of potash (SOP) market had reportedly firmed to a broad range at $685-$735/st FOB in California, with the upper end reflecting new postings for limited tons from some regional suppliers. Sources reported “very good sales” and “very short inventory for all grades of SOP at all locations.”

Pacific Northwest: The potash market remained at $455-$465/st FOB warehouses or DEL in the Pacific Northwest, depending on grade and location. The potash market FOB Utah mines was steady as well at $400-$405/st, depending on grade.

The SOP Magnesia market was quoted at $461-$471/st FOB in the region.

Western Canada: Granular potash was steady at $429/mt FOB Saskatchewan mines to Canadian customers, with regional warehouses reported in the mid $400s/mt FOB in Western Canada.

Brazil: K+S confirmed that it lost market share in Brazil in 2014 due to the production outage at its Unterbreizbach mine. The company did receive a €30 million insurance recovery related to the outage (GM Aug. 18, p. 14).

K+S expects that it will begin shipping higher volumes to Brazil again in 2015, and that it will again achieve total overall production of 7 million mt in 2015. “Our relationships with our clients are so reliable that they are not gone forever,” K+S told analysts.

The Brazil market saw a strengthening in prices in the first half, perhaps aided by the loss of K+S tons. Sellers are now eyeing $380/mt CFR or higher for the next round of business. The last done remains at $350-$360/mt CFR, however.

Phosphates

Central Florida: Sellers in the Central Florida phosphate market, already experiencing light demand due to the usual August downturn, are facing an added roadblock in the form of rail delays.

A massive influx of grain shipments has reportedly caused a nationwide railcar jam ahead of the September buying window. Some 2,700 railcars were reportedly running an average of 17 days late to their respective destinations in mid-August. Shipping operators hoped to reduce that number to below 2,000 by mid-September.

Though the delays were undoubtedly gumming up logistics, the situation was minor compared to 2014’s early April peak, when close to 16,500 railcar orders were averaging delays of several weeks.

Despite the delays, phosphate sellers said railcars were still currently able to be booked out of Florida. Sources quoted the DAP market at $435-$440/st FOB, unchanged from the previous week. MAP, still said to be essentially unavailable, was $20/st higher than DAP.

U.S. Gulf: The NOLA barge market continued to be described as “firm but flat,” with few confirmed prompt transactions reported.

With Chinese vessels still a few weeks from discharge, domestic producer offers in the $455-$465/st FOB range for September and October were the only game in town. Traders expressed doubt that any tons had moved at those levels, but also believed there was little interest to try and short-sale the market.

At least one October DAP transaction was confirmed at a price of $455/st FOB.

Industry players cited a number of factors for the market’s lack of mobility. First, “everyone’s bought what they need to get started,” one source said, adding that the market is simply going through a seasonal soft patch.

Another more nebulous difficulty was the increasingly muddled logistics landscape. One source noted that at the Southwestern Fertilizer Conference in July there was “this sudden realization there were going to be problems on freight. And now here we are.”

In addition to barge shortages and river freight costs quoted anywhere from normal to three times the average rate, rail operators reported a spike in delayed railcars. Grain shipments were thought to be the primary culprit, though greater-than-average demand for coal and oil freight also contributed to the backlog.

Although rail operators hope to bring the number of delayed cars down by mid-September, some sources were less optimistic, predicting significant backlogs until the end of December or even into spring 2015.

The logistics problems impacted the market from a number of angles, sources said. Unpredictable barge rates had the effect of clouding net price levels for river transactions, as prices quoted in FOB often failed to accurately depict net costs to buyers who risked ending up paying a small fortune in shipping. Buyers were said to seek both FOB and DEL price quotes in weighing purchases so as to more clearly suss out accurate net prices.

For example, traders spoke of a DAP barge offered near Mile 800 on the upper Mississippi for $440/st FOB, seemingly at a significant discount to the market. The hidden cost, however, lay in the freight rates offered with the cargo, quoted at $30/st to St. Paul, Minn., a destination generally commanding closer to $17.50/st.

The freight uncertainty was reportedly slowing terminal operators’ abilities to refill their bins, and supply was growing increasingly tight throughout much of the country as a result. The warehouse tightness was compounded by a reluctance from some buyers to purchase rail-loaded cargoes for fear of potential delivery delays, which in turn was thought to reduce traders’ motivation to go long on a barge. “It’s a vicious cycle,” one source said.

Prices on

Ammonium Sulfate

Eastern Cornbelt: The granular ammonium sulfate market was unchanged at $270-$280/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with rail-delivered tons pegged in the $276-$290/st range.

Ammonium thiosulfate remained at $345-$350/st FOB in the region.

Western Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate pricing in the Western Cornbelt was steady at $270-$280/st FOB. Ammonium thiosulfate was unchanged as well at $320-$345/st FOB in the region.

California: Ammonium sulfate was pegged in a broad range at $240-$290/st FOB in California, depending on location, grade, and supplier.

Ammonium thiosulfate remained at $300/st FOB Stockton.

Pacific Northwest: Granular ammonium sulfate was pegged at a solid $275/st FOB and $285/st DEL in the Pacific Northwest, up $10-$30/st from last report. Standard grade was much lower than granular, at $198/st FOB and $208/st DEL in the region.

Ammonium thiosulfate was pegged at $310-$320/st FOB in the region, with the low FOB Kennewick. The upper end of the range reflected the Aug. 18 posting from IRM FOB Ritzville, Wash., which was down $10/st from the previous price.

Western Canada: Granular ammonium sulfate was unchanged at $400-$405/mt DEL in Western Canada.

U.S. Imports: June saw a veritable surge in imports, up 405 percent to 50,046 st from the year-ago 9,907 st. Fertilizer year imports were also up, but not as dramatically, to 428,935 st from 319,102 st, a 34 percent increase.

Ammonium Nitrate

U.S. Gulf: Sources put the most recent ammonium nitrate barge business in the $300-$310/st FOB range, based on a recent import. There was speculation that the next round of imports might see higher prices.

June AN imports were off 6 percent, to 55,878 st from the year-ago 59,230 st, while fertilizer year imports were off 33 percent, to 631,111 st from 942,373 st.

Western Cornbelt: Ammonium nitrate remained at $380-$400/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt.

California: No market was reported for ammonium nitrate fertilizer in California.

CAN-17 pricing had reportedly slipped some $13/st from last report. The market was quoted at $312-$332/st FOB in the state, depending on location, with the low at Helm and the upper end out of desert locations in Southern California. The Stockton CAN-17 market was pegged at $315-$325/st FOB at mid-month.

AN-20 remained at $280/st DEL in California.

Pacific Northwest: No market was reported for fertilizer grade ammonium nitrate in the Pacific Northwest.

CAN-17 was tagged at $338/st FOB Kennewick, Wash., and $343-$348/st rail-DEL in the Pacific Northwest.

AN-20 was steady at $260/st FOB Kennewick and $270/st rail-DEL in the region.

Crops/Weather

Grain Futures: Soybean futures as of 4 p.m. on Aug. 21 were down from the previous week, while corn and wheat were mixed.

Corn for September 2014 was $3.6225/bushel, up from $3.62/bushel the previous week, while corn for December 2014 slipped to $3.69/bushel from the prior week’s $3.735/bushel. March 2015 corn contracts checked in at $3.8175/bushel, also down from the previous week’s $3.8675/bushel.

The November 2014 soybean price was $10.3825/bushel, down from $10.56/bushel a week earlier. Soybeans for January 2015 were also lower at $10.4525/bushel from the prior week’s $10.6475/bushel, while soybeans for November 2015 were posted at $10.4575/bushel, down from $10.61/bushel a week earlier.

Wheat for September 2014 was $5.4625/bushel, up from the prior week’s $5.3725/bushel, while wheat for December 2014 firmed slightly to $5.555/bushel from $5.5275/bushel at last report. July 2015 wheat contracts traded at $5.8925/bushel, down from the previous week’s $5.9525/bushel.

Eastern Cornbelt: The combination of August heat and well-timed moisture continued to benefit the region’s corn and soybean crops last week.

USDA assigned good or excellent ratings to fully 78-80 percent of Illinois’ corn and soybeans as of Aug. 17, compared with 72-75 percent in Ohio and 67-73 percent in Indiana. Nationally, 72 percent of the corn crop and 71 percent of the soybeans were rated as good or excellent last week.

Western Cornbelt: With abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions now limited to areas of southern Nebraska and southwestern Missouri, sources reported favorable crop conditions in the Western Cornbelt last week.

USDA placed fully 78-83 percent of Missouri’s corn and soybeans in the good or excellent categories as of Aug. 17, compared with 70-75 percent of the acreage in Iowa and Nebraska. Good or excellent ratings were also handed out to 67 percent of the rice and 60 percent of the cotton acreage in Missouri last week.

California: Expanding drought conditions continued to grip California at mid-month. Local reports said the state’s major reservoirs have dropped to critical levels, with Lake Shasta and Lake Oroville at just 32 percent of capacity, New Melones at 24 percent, San Luis at 20 percent, Exchequer at 18 percent, and Pine Flat at 12 percent.

The Aug. 12 U.S. Drought monitor showed severe drought covering the northwestern and southeastern tips of California – and those were the state’s wettest areas. Drought conditions in the rest of California were labeled as extreme to exceptional, the two worst categories, with exceptional drought now covering roughly two-thirds of the state.

Sources are hoping for a wet winter, with the rainy season set to begin on Nov. 1. “Fingers crossed for good weather as we go into the fall/winter,” said one source. “And good weather for California actually means bad weather.”

Pacific Northwest: As of mid-August, extreme drought conditions covered most of the southern half of Oregon, while moderate to severe drought persisted across northern Oregon, eastern Washington, and southern Idaho.

The dry conditions, coupled with windy weather at mid-month, fueled several wildfires in the region and continued to prompt red flag fire warnings. Thunderstorms brought rainfall to parts of southern Idaho and western Montana last week, however, with heavier showers and much cooler temperatures expected by the coming weekend.

The small grains harvest was well underway in the region. USDA reported that 65-68 percent of Washington’s spring wheat and barley crops were in the bin by Aug. 17, compared with 23-38 percent in Idaho and Montana. Just 19-23 percent of the ac

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