U.S. Gulf: Barges continued to be called $305/st FOB.
Ammonium nitrate imports were up 46 percent in August, to 40,761 st from the year-ago 27,933 st. July-August imports were up 29 percent, to 76,677 st from 59,224 st.
Western Cornbelt: Ammonium nitrate was quoted at $355-$360/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt. Sources pegged the Inola, Okla., ammonium nitrate market at $350/st FOB on the low end last week.
California: No market was reported for agricultural grade ammonium nitrate in California.
CAN-17 was pegged in a broad range in the state, from a low of $305-322/st FOB coastal terminals up to $325-$335/st FOB inland tanks.
The AN-20 market had reportedly firmed to $305/st DEL in California. Agrium’s AN-20 posting firmed on Oct. 13 to $305/st truck-DEL in the California market, up $5/st from the company’s Sept. 1 reference price.
Pacific Northwest: No market was reported for agricultural grade ammonium nitrate in the Pacific Northwest.
CAN-17 was steady at $338/st FOB Kennewick, Wash., and $343-$348/st rail-DEL in the region.
AN-20 was unchanged as well at $260/st FOB Kennewick and $270/st rail-DEL in the Pacific Northwest.
Saskatoon — Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. agreed to a C$280,000 penalty in provincial court here Oct. 21 relating to a workplace death in 2012. Chris Reid, 28, was fatally injured at the Allan potash mine when he was caught beneath a piece of mining equipment (GM July 2, 2012).
U.S. Gulf/River: The ninth tropical depression of the 2014 hurricane season formed in Mexico’s Bay of Campeche last week. Meteorologists expect the system to intensify into a tropical storm, though models disagreed on the storm’s chances for attaining hurricane status.
On the Mississippi River, the departure window closed on Oct. 21 for barges traveling from New Orleans to destinations between Quincy, Ill., and Clinton, Iowa. Southbound departure cutoffs for St. Paul, Minn., and Clinton are Nov. 13 and 27, respectively. Transit delays of 1-2 hours were reported at Locks 13, 17, 20, and 27. Both Lock 12 and Lock and Dam 5A saw waits of about an hour.
O’Brien Lock on the Illinois River will close for the navigation season from Nov. 3 through Mar. 6, 2015, though the lock will reopen for transit between Dec. 20 and Jan. 18, 2015. The last day for shipments leaving New Orleans for the lock’s mid-season operating window will be Dec. 14.
Favorable river levels kept wickets lowered at the Ohio River’s Lock 52 and 53 last week. Shippers reported delays of 1-2 hours at R.C. Byrd Lock, Greenup, and Smithland, while delays of 2-3 hours were reported for passage through Newburg Lock.
Wait times of an hour or less were seen at Willow Island, Belleville, and Winfield Lock on the Ohio River. Tow limits of 24 barges northbound and 15 barges southbound remained in place through the Olmstead Locks and Dam Project.
Minor delays attributed to an equipment failure were expected to continue indefinitely at Braddock Lock and Dam on the Monongahela River.
On the Gulf, average queue lengths of 24 boats were reported at Industrial Lock resulting in 24-30 delays. Daytime closures at Bayou Sorrel in the West Canal pushed wait times to as high as 24 hours, and delays were experienced at Port Allen Lock (4-6 hours), Algiers Lock (1-2 hours), Harvey Lock (1-2 hours), and Calcasieu Lock (1-2 hours).
The Victoria Barge Canal Lift Bridge will be offline between 8:00 a.m. and 5:00 p.m., Monday through Thursday, for an undetermined length of time.
Grain Futures: As of 4 p.m. on Oct. 23, corn, soybean, and wheat prices were all higher compared to the week before.
Corn for December 2014 was $3.5975/bushel, up from $3.5225/bushel the previous week. The March 2015 price for corn rose to $3.735/bushel from the prior week’s $3.6525/bushel, while trading of December 2015 corn contracts bumped to $4.0525/bushel from $3.97/bushel at last report.
The November 2014 soybean price was $9.9325/bushel, up from $9.665/bushel the week before. Soybeans for January 2015 were quoted at $10.00/bushel, also up from the prior week’s $9.7425/bushel, while soybeans for November 2015 firmed to $9.8975/bushel from the previous week’s $9.7975/bushel.
Wheat for December 2014 was $5.2675/bushel, up from the prior week’s $5.17/bushel, while wheat for March 2015 firmed to $5.4025/bushel from $5.2875/bushel at last report. July 2015 wheat contracts traded at $5.5525/bushel, also up from $5.4275/bushel the week before.
Eastern Cornbelt: Parts of the Eastern Cornbelt remained sidelined by wet weather that carried over from the previous weekend, but drier conditions were on the horizon. “Things are slow and wet,” said one Ohio contact at midweek, “but we’re hoping to get harvest in full swing in the next few days with a drying trend showing on the radar.”
The corn harvest as of Oct. 19 remained a full 20-30 percentage points behind the average pace in Indiana and Illinois, with progress rated at 31 percent complete in Indiana and 43 percent in Illinois. Ohio’s corn crop was just 23 percent harvested by that date, but USDA continued to show very favorable corn conditions in the region, with fully 83 percent of the acreage in Illinois and 77 percent in Indiana and Ohio rated as good or excellent.
The Eastern Cornbelt soybean harvest as of Oct. 19 had also slipped 20-30 percentage points behind the average pace, with just 31-37 percent of the crop harvested region wide. Despite those delays, USDA continued to place 74-79 percent of the regional soybean crop in the good or excellent categories last week.
Western Cornbelt: Beautiful fall weather allowed harvest to progress rapidly across much of the Western Cornbelt last week, but the pace was still significantly trailing the five-year average for all three states in the region.
Iowa growers had just 19 percent of the corn in the bin by Oct. 19, a full 34 percentage points behind the five-year average for the state, while harvest progress in Nebraska and Missouri was rated at 28 percent and 58 percent complete, respectively. The soybean harvest was 61-69 percent complete in Iowa and Nebraska by that date, but trailed considerably at only 25 percent complete in Missouri.
The late harvest was certainly threatening to narrow the fall window for fertilizer application in the Western Cornbelt, but had not yet impacted USDA’s assessment of crop quality. As of Oct. 19, 75-87 percent of the regional corn crop fell in the good or excellent categories, along with 74-75 percent of the soybeans.
California: California’s harvest continued under extraordinarily dry conditions in mid-October. USDA reported that 85 percent of the state’s rice crop and 55 percent of the cotton were harvested by Oct. 19, with both tracking well ahead of the average pace. California growers also had 35 percent of the winter wheat planted by that date.
The U.S. Drought Monitor at mid-month continued to place nearly all of the state in the extreme to exceptional drought categories, with only a small part of southwestern California labeled as a moderate to severe drought area.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) at mid-month reported that drought recovery during the winte
U.S. Gulf: Sources put sulfuric acid in the Gulf of Mexico at $65-$70/st CFR, unchanged from the previous week.
August sulfuric acid imports were up 7 percent, to 299,590 st from the year-ago 280,317 st. July-August imports were up 13 percent, to 646,053 st from 572,654 st.
Tampa: PotashCorp last week announced a fourth-quarter settlement of $129/lt CFR with its sulfur suppliers, down $7/lt CFR from the third-quarter contract. The settlement matches levels announced by Mosaic the previous week (GM Oct. 20, p. 8), confirming the fourth-quarter price of molten sulfur at Tampa as $129/lt CFR.
Moving in lockstep with the updated Tampa price, molten sulfur delivered to Houston and the U.S. Gulf also changed by $7/lt, falling to $114/lt and $118/lt, respectively.
An incident last week at the Phillips 66 Bayway refinery in Linden, N.J., saw the release of an estimated 1,400 pounds of ethyl aluminum dichloride, a noxious and flammable gas used in the refining process. About 15 employees took shelter onsite, according to reports, and no injuries were reported. The cause of the release was not immediately known.
U.S. refinery utilization fell for a fourth straight week, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Refinery operations registered at 86.7 percent of capacity for the week ending Oct. 17, down 1.4 percent from the prior week’s 88.1 percent, but up from last year’s 85.9 percent and the five-year average of 85.4 percent.
Daily crude inputs dipped as well. The week’s average of 15.208 barrels/day was down 113,000 barrels from the previous week’s 15.321 million barrels/d.
U.S. Gulf: Sulfur sold from the Gulf of Mexico was called $140-$145/mt FOB, unchanged from the week before.
U.S. Imports: August imports were off 43 percent, to 128,011 st from the year-ago 226,332 st. July-August imports were down 28 percent, to 344,345 st from 481,167 st.
Vancouver: Sources called the Vancouver spot market at $140-$155/mt FOB, unchanged from the previous week.
Sources reported that Canadian refiners Syncrude and Suncor remained offline last week. Suncor was suffering from an unspecified mechanical issue, while Syncrude was believed to be facing ongoing challenges related to unsafe hydrogen sulfide gas levels at load out.
The price of sulfur shipped from Alberta was (-)$20-$80/mt.
West Coast: California prills were quoted at $135-$140/mt FOB, unchanged from the previous week. Sources quoted fourth-quarter molten sulfur contracts at $90-$130/lt FOB.
Benelux: The third-quarter price of Benelux sulfur was $158-$172/mt, though negotiations for the fourth quarter were underway. Some sources expected a significant price drop following recent softening internationally.
ADNOC: The price of ADNOC sulfur was $150/mt for the month of October.
U.S. Gulf: Barges remained within the $366-$370/st FOB range.
MOP imports were off slightly in August, to 773,029 st from the year-ago 775,114 st. July-August imports were up 14 percent, however, to 1.63 million st from 1.43 million st.
Eastern Cornbelt: Potash pricing remained at a solid $410-$420/st FOB warehouses in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on grade and location. Sources pegged the Cincinnati market last week at $410/st FOB for red and $417/st FOB for white granular tons.
Western Cornbelt: Potash was quoted at a firm $410-$417/st FOB out of regional warehouses in the Western Cornbelt, with the low for red and the upper end for white granular.
California: Potash had reportedly firmed to $518-$535/st FOB warehouses in California, depending on grade and location, with the low for 60 percent and the upper end for 62 percent granular or soluble product.
Crystalline potassium nitrate was unchanged at $950/st FOB for bulk and $1,020/st FOB for bags.
Sulfate of potash (SOP) remained at $710-$735/st FOB for any available tons, with steady movement reported in the Central Valley.
Pacific Northwest: The potash market had reportedly firmed to $465-$480/st FOB or DEL in the Pacific Northwest, up $10-$15/st from last report, with the low for red and the upper end for 62 percent white granular tons. Intrepid’s reference prices out of mine locations in Utah remained at $420/st FOB for 60 percent standard and $425/st FOB for 60 percent granular.
The SOP Magnesia market was steady at $461-$471/st FOB in the Pacific Northwest.
Western Canada: The potash market remained firm at $470-$480/mt FOB inland warehouses in Western Canada, with the Saskatchewan mine price quoted solidly at the $445-$450/mt FOB level to Canadian customers, depending on grade.
Central Florida: The absence of both supply and demand kept trading in the Central Florida market to a minimum last week.
Prices remained static, with Mosaic referenced at $435/st FOB for DAP and $455/st FOB for MAP. Some industry players speculated that current producer prices were not sustainable given recent declines at NOLA, while others argued that levels were unlikely to fall while tightness persisted in the market.
Producers were reported to be offering spot tons at Tampa only after domestic and international contract tons were supplied and export spot demand was met. DAP was “extremely limited,” while MAP was said to be essentially unavailable.
Rumors were reported of small-lot DAP sales for as low as $430/st FOB, but the transactions went unconfirmed. Truck-loaded product was expected to maintain its approximate $5/st premium over railed tons, and sources put the dealer price at around $445/st FOB.
Demand was hampered by ongoing delays in the corn harvest, and some industry observers expressed uncertainty about the potential for a November boost. Reduced farm incomes, the expectation of continued logistics difficulties, and persistent harvest delays could conspire to minimize the fall application season.
Prices on the Central Florida market were quoted in a range of $435-$440/st FOB, unchanged from the previous week. MAP was called $455-$460/st FOB.
U.S. Gulf: It was another slow week in NOLA as the market struggled to find an identity. Bears and bulls waged a battle of perception over the short-term direction of the market, and no winner had emerged by week’s end.
Prices were largely static, though a number of traders saw offers firming as the week wore on. Non-Chinese tons were claimed to be unavailable below the $415/st FOB level as of Oct. 23, while an offer of $402/st FOB for open-origin DAP was reportedly advanced through an online broker.
Possible explanations for the wide spread ran the gamut, from short sellers hoping to run prices into the ground, to supply tightness giving the market a soft bottom, to ongoing freight uncertainty. One thing industry players could agree on, however, was the chilling effect of the delayed corn harvest on the market. USDA estimated the corn harvest at only 31 percent complete nationally as of Oct. 19, significantly behind the 53 percent five-year average.
Wet weather was blamed for the harvest delays, but freight issues and low crop prices were also factors. Many grain shipments were “stranded” as competition between coal, oil, chemicals, and fertilizers caused logistics costs to spike. In addition, growers were seeing crop prices on the futures market slip to their lowest levels since 2010. With less buying power at their disposal relative to recent years, some sources said farmers were more likely to delay harvesting as long as possible to defer costs.
A number of industry players argued, however, that the low grain price would only delay end-users from fall purchasing, and not deter them. “People aren’t really looking (to buy fertilizer) until they can get everything out of the field,” one source said. “But the weather is forecast to be good through November, so I think things are going to pick up and warehouses will sell out.”
As for predictions of reduced corn acres in 2015, several sources said they still expect brisk fertilizer demand. “I’ve heard they’ll plant 88 million acres instead of 92 million acres, but so what?” asked one source. “The farmers are pulling 1.5-times the crops out of the fields that they normally do, so nutrients are much more depleted than usual. It doesn’t matter how many acres they plant next year, they’re going to have to fertilize.”
Eastern Cornbelt: The granular ammonium sulfate market was steady at $290-$300/st FOB and $295-$305/st rail-DEL in the Eastern Cornbelt.
Ammonium thiosulfate was unchanged as well at $345-$350/st FOB in the region.
Western Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate remained at $285-$300/st FOB and $295-$305/st rail-DEL in the Western Cornbelt, with the low end of the FOB range reported in southern Missouri.
The ammonium thiosulfate market was steady at $320-$345/st FOB in the region.
California: The ammonium sulfate market remained in a broad range at $240-$285/st FOB in California, depending on location, grade, and supplier.
Ammonium thiosulfate was steady at $300/st FOB Stockton.
Pacific Northwest: Granular ammonium sulfate remained at $275/st FOB and $285/st DEL in the Pacific Northwest, with standard grade referenced as low as $198/st FOB and $208/st DEL in the region.
Ammonium thiosulfate was unchanged as well at $310-$320/st FOB in the Pacific Northwest. Sources quoted delivered amthio in the same range for railed tons.
Western Canada: Granular ammonium sulfate was quoted at $410-$415/mt DEL in Western Canada.
Disclaimer of Warranty
All information has been obtained by Green Markets from sources believed to be reliable. However, because of the possibility of human or mechanical error by our sources, Green Markets or others, Green Markets does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, or completeness of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information.
