Stellar 3Q Results Expected from CF, Mosaic, Nutrien According to Bloomberg Consensus

Third-quarter results for CF Industries Holdings Inc., The Mosaic Co., and Nutrien Ltd. are expected to significantly exceed year-ago levels, according to the Bloomberg Consensus, an average of estimates from major analysts. CF and Nutrien are expected to more than double year-ago adjusted EBITDA, and Mosaic is expected to come close.

Analysts project that CF will have third-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $1.16 billion, up from the year-ago $488 million. Net income is put at $686.4 million on revenues of $2.4 billion, up from the year-ago loss of $185 million and $1.36 billion, respectively. The year-ago loss included CF’s taking of an impairment on UK assets.

Mosaic is projected to have third-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $1.88 billion, up from the year-ago $969 million. Net income is estimated to be $1.19 billion on revenues of $5.76 billion, up from the year-ago $371.9 million and $3.42 billion, respectively.

Analysts estimate Nutrien will have adjusted EBITDA of $3.58 billion, up from the year-ago $1.64 billion. Net income is expected to be $2.15 billion on revenues of $8.88 billion, up from the year-ago $726 million and $6.0 billion, respectively.

Nutrien is expected to release earnings results after markets close on Nov. 2, CF on Nov. 3, and Mosaic on Nov. 7.

  3Q-22 Estimate 3Q-21 Actual
CF    
Revenue 2.4 B 1.36 B
Net Income 686.4 M (185 M)
Adj. EBITDA 1.16 B 488 M
Mosaic    
Revenue 5.76 B 3.42 B
Net Income 1.19 B 371.9 M
Adj. EBITDA 1.88 B 969 M
Nutrien    
Revenue 8.88 B 6.0 B
Net Income 2.15 B 726 M
Adj. EBITDA 3.58 B 1.64 B

Nutrien Selects thyssenkrupp Uhde as Tech Partner for Geismar Clean Ammonia Project

Nutrien Ltd. on Oct. 26 announced the selection of thyssenkrupp Uhde, Germany, as technology provider and partner for its planned clean ammonia facility, currently under consideration at Geismar, La.

Intended to serve the agriculture, industrial, and emerging energy markets, the 1.2 million mt/y facility will claim title as the world’s largest clean ammonia production facility, and is expected to capture and store more than 90% of CO2 emissions, giving the facility the smallest carbon footprint of any ammonia production center of its scale. Future modifications could transition the plant to net-zero emissions, Nutrien said.

“This partnership marks another important milestone in our commitment to provide solutions to help meet the world’s decarbonization goals through leadership in clean ammonia production,” said Trevor Williams, Interim President of Nitrogen and Phosphate at Nutrien. “We are glad to have an experienced partner with both the technology and proven execution competence to join us on this journey as we strive to sustainably feed and fuel the future.”

The ammonia plant will utilize autothermal reforming technology (ATR), according to thyssenkrupp. “ATR allows for a nearly CO2-free syngas production from natural gas with the help of pure oxygen,” thyssenkrupp said. “Ammonia is produced in a second step, and the CO2 from this combined reforming is captured and stored.”

Nutrien has partnered with thyssenkrupp on a number of past projects, with thyssenkrupp operating in capacities ranging from licensing and technology, to full engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) agreements, Nutrien said.

“We are excited to be the chosen technology partner for this project and support the execution as well,” said thyssenkrupp CEO Dr. Cord Landsmann. “This is another proof point that the market is shifting towards sustainable, clean ammonia. And we can deliver easy to install solutions at the necessary scale.”

The plant remains in the front-end engineering design (FEED) phase, and is awaiting a final investment decision due in 2023. If given the green light, construction on the $2 billion facility would begin in 2024, followed by full production in 2027 (GM May 20, 2022).

thyssenkrupp has built more than 2,500 chemical plants worldwide, including several ammonia production facilities, according to the company website. Earlier in October, thyssenkrupp was tapped by the UK’s Oracle Power PLC to conduct a feasibility study for the construction of a green hydrogen and ammonia facility, and in August won a contract from Qatar Fertilizer Co. (QAFCO) for EPC and commissioning of a new blue ammonia plant in Qatar, thyssenkrupp said.

Nutrien noted it has actively been pursuing the development of low-carbon ammonia for more than a decade, and has approximately 1 million mt/y of production capability through its Redwater and Joffre, Alta., operations, as well as Geismar, all of which employ carbon capture and sequestration technology (GM July 30, 2021).

Nutrien has also signed a Letter of Intent to collaborate with Mitsubishi Corp., Tokyo, for offtake of up to 40% of expected production from the plant to deliver to the Asian fuel market, including Japan, once construction at Geismar is complete (GM May 20, 2022).

Second Rail Union Rejects Tentative Labor Deal; Business Groups Urge White House to Intervene

The prospect of a rail strike loomed larger this week after members of a second union voted to reject the tentative labor agreement reached in September with the six Class 1 railroads.

The Brotherhood of Railroad Signalmen (BRS), which represents more than 6,000 rail workers, announced on Oct. 26 that 60.57% of its members voted against the agreement, which provides for a 24% wage increase for five years retroactive to Jan. 1, 2020, $5,000 in lump-sum bonus payments, and a 14.1% retroactive portion of the 24% wage increase payable immediately upon ratification (GM Sept. 16, p. 1).

The BRS vote follows the announcement earlier this month by the Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employees Division (BMWED) that a majority of its members had also voted to reject the agreement (GM Oct. 14, p. 1). BMWED represents almost 12,000 rail workers.

“For the first time that I can remember, the BRS members voted not to ratify a National Agreement, and with the highest participation rate in BRS history,” said BRS President Michael Baldwin in an Oct. 26 statement. “Without Signalmen, the roadways and railroad crossings would be unsafe for the traveling public, and they shoulder that heavy burden each day.

“Additionally, the highest offices at each carrier, as well as their stockholders, seem to forget that the rank-and-file of their employees continued to perform their job each day through an unprecedented pandemic, while the executives worked from home to keep their families safe,” he added.

Baldwin’s statement said ongoing disputes over paid time off for illness were a primary reason for the negative vote, a factor that was also cited by the BMWED. The agreement reached in September included raises and bonuses that a Presidential Emergency Board (PEB) recommended this summer (GM Aug. 19, p. 28), as well as concessions from railroads to ease attendance policies to allow workers unpaid days off for doctor’s appointment without penalty.

As it currently stands, six of 12 unions have now voted to approve the deal, while two have rejected it and the remaining four will reveal voting results in mid-November. The National Carriers’ Conference Committee (NCCC), which represents freight railroads in labor talks, said on Oct. 26 that it was disappointed in the BRS vote, but both sides have agreed to maintain the status quo until early December.

After its vote to reject the agreement, the BMWED submitted a counteroffer to the NCCC in mid-October that reportedly called for a basic package of six paid sick days, a proposal that was promptly rejected by the NCCC. “Now is not the time to introduce new demands that rekindle the prospect of a railroad strike,” the NCCC said in an Oct. 19 statement.

“Now, following an unsuccessful initial membership ratification process, BMWED leadership is asking for additional benefits and threatening to strike, this time based on the easily disproved premise that union workers are not allowed to take sick leave,” the NCCC said. “Rail employees can and do take time off for sickness and have comprehensive paid sickness benefits starting, in the case of BMWED-represented employees, after four days of absence and lasting up to 52 weeks.

“The structure of these benefits is a function of decades of bargaining where unions, including BMWED, have repeatedly agreed that short-term absences would be unpaid in favor of higher compensation for days worked and more generous sickness benefits for longer absences,” the NCCC added.

In an Oct. 26 letter to members, BMWED National Division President Tony Cardwell responded to the NCCC by describing the union’s counterproposal for paid sick days as “reasonable” and “a common benefit in nearly every other industry” in the US.

“We provided our proposal to the railroads, but they rejected it and indicated they would not consider any proposal that veers from the PEB recommendations,” Cardwell said. “BMWED leadership has gone on a campaign of informing the public and lawmakers of the railroad companies’ unwillingness to provide basic sick days while carrier executives bow to Wall Street’s continued desire for more than its fair share. As long as they take that stance, all we can do is encourage solidarity and prepare to exercise self-help.”

The 12 unions involved in labor negotiations collectively represent approximately 115,000 rail workers at the major Class 1 freight railroads. The railroads have estimated that a rail strike could cost the economy $2 billion per day.

To avert a potential strike, more than 300 business groups on Oct. 27 sent a letter to President Biden urging federal intervention. The letter’s signers included The American Farm Bureau Federation, Alliance for Automotive Innovation, National Retail Federation, and U.S. Chamber of Commerce

“Unfortunately, we have seen two unions reject the agreement and there are concerns that others may follow. If that were to be the case, we could witness a strike that would shut down the entire freight rail system,” the letter said. “Because the White House played such a central role in the process, we believe it can be helpful in continuing to move the process forward in a positive direction. Otherwise, Congress will be called upon to act.”

New Facility Expected Up by March

Northside Elevator’s new $20 million agronomy center, which is under construction in Stanley, Wisc. (GM June 24, p. 28), is expected to be completed by March 2023, according to a recent report in the Leader-Telegram, which said the facility will include 14,000 st of fertilizer storage, a 40,000 square-foot warehouse, and 1,500 square-foot office space.

Northside said the centerpiece of the project is a tower system fertilizer manufacturing plant, with other benefits including access to the CN rail line, warehousing, and office space for customer service.

Fire Destroys Building at Wilbur-Ellis Facility

A fire destroyed a building at a Wilbur-Ellis fertilizer and blending facility in Moses Lake, Wash., on Sunday, Oct. 23. Firefighters were called to the scene around 3:15 p.m., but the building was already engulfed and collapsed at 5:15 p.m., according to local authorities.

The local fire chief told the Columbia Basin Herald that the building was not very old and was built completely of wood, so there would be no corrosion issues. He said that was why the flames were so fast and quick.

There were no injuries, and no employees were on site at the time of the fire. Those living one mile to the northeast of the plant were asked to shelter-in-place through Monday morning as the fire continued to smolder.

The Grant County Sheriff’s Department said on Oct. 24 that none of the building contents appeared to be involved in the fire. The Grant County Fire Marshall’s Office is investigating.

Wilbur-Ellis had not responded to inquiries at press time.

Ma’aden Plans to Produce Blue Ammonia, Buys Carbon Credits

Saudi Arabian Mining Co. (Ma’aden) is working on plans to produce blue ammonia, CEO Robert Wilt said in an interview with Bloomberg. Ma’aden already produces ammonia from natural gas, and is planning to trap the carbon dioxide emitted in the process so the product can be labeled blue.

“Right now there’s no premium for blue ammonia, but as we continue to help the energy transition globally it’s something we’re going to focus on,” said Wilt.

State oil giant Saudi Aramco is also looking to invest in carbon capture and storage with the aim of producing blue ammonia. Saudi Arabia has so far only produced blue ammonia by capturing and using the CO2, rather than storing it permanently.

Aside from blue ammonia, Ma’aden is also looking to use solar energy to power its aluminum smelter, so it can market the product as green, Wilt said.

In other news, Ma’aden was one of the largest purchasers of carbon credits from the first MENA Voluntary Carbon Market auction and the largest in the world, held on Oct. 26, 2022, at the 6th edition of the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh.

The auction offered CORSIA-compliant and Verra-registered carbon credits, with 15 Saudi and regional entities participating in the sale.

“As the world moves towards net zero, we need to do our part to ensure meaningful emission reductions in value chains,” said Wilt. “We are proud to support this world-leading initiative by Saudi Arabia, which reiterates the nation’s commitment to net zero ambitions.”

“Ma’aden is committed to being an ESG leader in the Kingdom as the mining industry grows in prominence and becomes a key player in powering the energy transition,” he added. “We will continue to decarbonize our operations as we seek to build the mining industry into the third pillar of Saudi economy, in line with Vision 2030.”

Other Ma’aden initiatives include a commitment to build the world’s largest solar process steam plant in Ras Al Khair, which will reduce Ma’aden’s emissions by 600,000 mt/y, and a commitment to plant 20 million trees by 2040 to contribute to the Saudi Green Initiative. Ma’aden has planted over 3 million trees since 2013.

New Brunswick Seeks Potash Exploration; Nutrien Focus Remains on Saskatchewan

The provincial government of New Brunswick on Oct. 21 issued a Request for Proposals (RFP) for potash exploration in the Salt Springs and Cassidy Lake areas, southeast of Norton.

“Potash has been an important contributor to the local and provincial economy in New Brunswick for more than 50 years,” said Natural Resources and Energy Development Minister Mike Holland. “Our current geopolitical climate has clearly shown how requirements for natural resources connect us and affect us globally. As the only region along the eastern seaboard of North America that has mined potash resources, this is a great opportunity for New Brunswick.”

The area in question is about 26,350 hectares in size. Most of the land is privately owned.

Interested parties will have until Dec. 20 to submit proposals outlining how they would conduct exploration for potash resources, and in the event of a discovery, how they would develop potash and/or related evaporite mineral deposits.

This RFP is for exploration only. If no satisfactory proposals are received, exploration rights will not be issued.

The province said any successful proponent will enter into an exploration agreement outlining how the work will be done. Exploration activity of a damaging nature may not proceed without landowner permission and a work authorization from the department.

The exploration agreement would also specify the terms of a mining lease agreement, which would be made available in the event the construction of a mine or processing facility were approved.

Potash has been identified as a critical mineral by Natural Resources Canada. It was placed on Canada’s Critical Minerals List 2021, a list of minerals essential to Canada’s economic security.

Nutrien Ltd. announced in November 2018 (GM Nov. 9, 2018) that following a strategic review of the company’s potash portfolio, it decided to permanently close its New Brunswick potash facility. It recorded a US$1.8 billion non-cash impairment in the third quarter of 2018 as a result.

The company said at the time that it had no plans to sell the mine. The facility had been placed in care and maintenance in early 2016 (GM Jan. 22, 2016) and has not produced potash since that time, though it has continued to produce salt (GM Feb. 5, p. 13). Nutrien said the decision to close the New Brunswick facility reflected the company’s ability to increase potash production in Saskatchewan at a significantly lower operating and capital cost than resuming production in New Brunswick.

“The world potash market continues to evolve daily, and there is considerable uncertainty with regards to production levels in Eastern Europe as a result of the conflict in Ukraine and the sanctions on Belarus,” a Nutrien spokesperson told Green Markets, when asked if Nutrien may have rethought its plans for New Brunswick.

“On March 16, we announced a plan to safely and sustainably increase 2022 potash production capability to approximately 15 million mt in response to the uncertainty of supply from Eastern Europe. The majority of this additional volume is expected to be delivered in the second half of the year, and the additional volume will come from our six low-cost potash mine sites across Saskatchewan. On June 9, during our Investor Day call, we announced an additional potash production capability to 18 million mt by 2025,” the spokesperson said.

“In utilizing our mine network in Saskatchewan for additional capacity, we have no plans at this time to expand our New Brunswick mine,” the spokesperson continued. “We’re proud to be a member of the Sussex community and take a long-term view to our operations. The provincial government has extended the existing contract with Nutrien and its mine in the Sussex region for the supply of road salt. This is excellent news for both the province and Nutrien as it enables us to maintain our presence in the province, retain our local experienced workforce, contribute to the local economy through taxes, royalties and community investment, and provide an essential product for safe winter driving.”

Vopak Singapore Studies Expansion of Ammonia Infrastructure at Jurong Island Terminal

Vopak Singapore, a unit of Netherlands-based tank storage major Royal Vopak NV, is looking at expanding its ammonia infrastructure at its Banyan terminal on Jurong Island

Vopak’s Banyan terminal, located off the southwestern coast of Singapore, has a storage capacity of close to 1.5 million cubic meters (cbm), and is an integrated oil, chemical, and gas hybrid storage facility. Currently, the terminal owns and operates a refrigerated ammonia tank with a capacity of 10,000 cbm, which is supporting petrochemical activities in Singapore.

The expansion, subject to final investment decision, will add new storage capacity for ammonia to primarily support the power and maritime sectors. Vopak Singapore has recently completed the conceptual design of the planned expansion and has commenced the quantitative risk assessment study.

Royal Vopak announced earlier this month it is making preparation at Vopak Terminal Vlissingen for the storage of green ammonia in response to the growing demand for sustainable raw materials and energy in the region (GM Oct. 14, p. 31).

Nitricity, IFDC Collaborate on Demo-System

Ag startup Nitricity, San Francisco, which has a technology to produce renewable nitrogen point-of-use, announced on Oct. 24 that it will collaborate with the International Fertilizer Development Center (IFDC), Muscle Shoals, Ala., on the launch of a demonstration system at IFDC’s research facility in Muscle Shoals.

The company said the project will seek to uncover Nitricity’s current greenhouse gas emissions profile and opportunities for further reduction. The project consists of running a Nitricity demo-system installed at IFDC to produce sustainable nitric acid and other nitrate-based fertilizers from air, water, and renewable electricity. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will be measured from fertilizer production to soil application in a lab setting.

“Our work at IFDC is centered on improving sustainable agricultural productivity through proven, science-based research and methods,” said Dr. Upendra Singh, Vice President of Research at IFDC. “We are intrigued by the potential of Nitricity’s electrified fertilizer production method, and we look forward to reporting on the sustainability and scalability of this technology.”

The findings of the research project, expected to be available as early as the end of 2022, are expected to validate Nitricity’s technology as a potential tool to help mitigate GHG emissions from fertilizer production to field application when compared to conventional fertilizers.

“This collaboration has come at an incredibly important time, with recent volatility in the synthetic fertilizer market leaving many farmers with fewer options to grow crops efficiently,” said Nicolas Pinkowski, CEO and Co-Founder of Nitricity. “This crisis is particularly dire in Sub-Saharan Africa, an area of focus for our partners at IFDC. We are confident that through proving the effectiveness and sustainability of Nitricity’s production model in this demonstration, we will be able to quickly expand our efforts to regions where they are most needed.”

IHI, Sembcorp Sign Green MOU

IHI Corp., Tokyo, has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with energy provider Sembcorp Industries, Singapore, to jointly explore decarbonization initiatives that will underpin the energy transition and sustainable development in Singapore and Asia Pacific.

The collaboration will explore the development of an integrated green ammonia supply chain, both upstream and downstream. In Singapore, the two companies will study the introduction of an ammonia-fueled gas turbine as well as the conversion of existing assets to ammonia and mixed fuel within Sembcorp’s facilities on Jurong Island, along with developing infrastructure facilities for the reception and utilization of ammonia.

As part of the Singapore Green Plan 2030, the Singapore government announced the “Sustainable Jurong Island” initiative in November 2021 to transform Jurong Island into a sustainable Energy & Chemicals (E&C) Park, which will promote the use of low-carbon and carbon-free fuels as a step towards achieving this goal.

Sembcorp reports a balanced energy portfolio of 16.6GW, with 7.1GW of renewable energy capacity comprising solar, wind and energy storage globally.

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