Dry Fertilizer Barge Rates
11/3/2023 | Last Week | |
Memphis | 18.50-19.00 | 18.50-19.00 |
St. Louis | 20.00 | 20.00 |
Peoria | 27.00-28.50 | 27.00-28.50 |
Cincinnati | 30.00 | 30.00 |
St. Paul | 33.00 | 33.00 |
Catoosa/Inola | 36.00 | 36.00 |
11/3/2023 | Last Week | |
Memphis | 18.50-19.00 | 18.50-19.00 |
St. Louis | 20.00 | 20.00 |
Peoria | 27.00-28.50 | 27.00-28.50 |
Cincinnati | 30.00 | 30.00 |
St. Paul | 33.00 | 33.00 |
Catoosa/Inola | 36.00 | 36.00 |
BHP Group Ltd. reported on Oct. 31 that it has approved an investment of $4.9 billion for Stage 2 of its Jansen potash project in Saskatchewan. Stage 2 would add another 4.36 million mt/y of potassium chloride capacity to Stage 1’s 4.35 million mt/y capacity currently under development. First production for Stage 1 is targeted for the end of calendar year 2026 (GM Aug. 25, p. 24).
BHP expects construction of Jansen Stage 2 to take approximately six years, with first production in fiscal year 2029 followed by a ramp-up period of three years. The company in February (GM Feb. 24, p. 1) announced that it had accelerated the Stage 2 feasibility study a year earlier than expected (GM Sept. 9, 2022).
The latest investment decision follows BHP’s approval of $5.7 billion for Stage 1 of the Jansen potash project in August 2021 (GM Aug. 20, 2021)and a pre-Stage 1 investment of $4.5 billion.
“Today’s additional investment will transform Jansen into one of the world’s largest potash mines, doubling production capacity to approximately 8.5 million tonnes per annum,” said BHP CEO Mike Henry. “This is an important milestone that underscores our confidence in potash and marks the next phase of the company’s growth in Canada. We believe Jansen will deliver long-term value for shareholders and the local community and will position BHP as one of the leaders in the global potash industry.”
Jansen Stage 1 is 32% complete, up from 26% as of June 30 (GM July 28, p. 28) and progressing in line with its schedule. BHP said Jansen Stage 2 is expected to deliver its approximate 4.36 million mt/y of production at a capital intensity of about $1,050/mt, “lower than Jansen Stage 1 due to the leveraging of existing and planned infrastructure.”
BHP said the new investment for Stage 2 will be used for the development of additional mining districts, completion of the second shaft hoist infrastructure to handle higher mining volumes, expansion of processing facilities, and the addition of more railcars.
BHP said Westshore Terminals in Delta, B.C., remains the company’s main port facility to ship potash from Jansen to customers, and the Stage 2 investment includes funding to increase storage facilities at the port. The company cautioned, however, that it will not be initiating a formal capacity extension for the Westshore port terminal at this time and will evaluate closer to Stage 2 reaching first production.
BHP said Stage 2 was evaluated utilizing BHP’s Capital Allocation Framework and “at consensus prices has an internal rate of return of 15-18% and an expected payback period of approximately six years from first production.”
The Stage 2 internal rate of return range is post-tax, nominal, and reflects average 2029-2039 prices of $369/mt and $466/mt. The company expects underlying EBITDA margins for Stage 1 and Stage 2 of approximately 65-70% due to low-cost production of $105-$120/mt.
Longer term, BHP said Jansen has the potential for two additional expansions to reach an ultimate production capacity of 16-17 million mt/y, subject to studies and approvals.
The US Department of Commerce (DOC) has announced the final results of the first annual administrative reviews of the countervailing duty orders (CVD) on phosphate fertilizers from Russia and Morocco. DOC increased the CVD rate for Russian producer PhosAgro from 9.19% to 28.50% and decreased the CVD rate for Moroccan producer OCP from 19.97% to 2.12%.
“We are disappointed by the ruling on Moroccan imports to the US and we are considering our next steps,” said Mosaic CEO Joc O’Rourke. “We at Mosaic expect and welcome fair competition all around the world, and we are confident that Mosaic can compete on a level playing field. We will continue to seek remedies when we see unfair practices.”
The National Corn Growers Association (NCGA), which has been a vocal opponent of the duties, quickly applauded the decision, calling the decision on Morocco a big win for corn growers.
“This victory was made possible by corn growers across the country who spoke out against these duties as they faced skyrocketing fertilizer prices and product shortages at the behest of The Mosaic Co.,” said NCGA President Harold Wolle. “While the best duty on fertilizers is no duty at all, we are nonetheless thrilled that corn growers bearing the brunt of these tariffs will feel financial relief thanks to this decision.”
In a separate matter that has been working its way through the legal system, in September the US Court of International Trade (CIT) sent the phosphate trade cases back to the US International Trade Commission and the DOC for reconsideration (GM Sept. 22, p. 1).
Two major industrial-grade ammonium nitrate (IGAN) buyers – Singapore-based Orica International PTE Ltd. and Nelson Brothers LLC, Birmingham, Ala., (ONB) – on Oct. 21 filed a lawsuit as joint plaintiffs against CF Industries Holdings Inc. regarding contractual disputes under AN purchase agreements for the supply of ammonium nitrate and related products, which date back to 2014 (GM Feb. 17, 2014).
The case was filed in the Circuit Court of the Nineteenth Judicial Circuit in Lake County, Ill. CF filed a separate lawsuit regarding the contract dispute on Oct. 22 in the US District Court for the Northern District of Illinois.
In a statement to the Australian Stock Exchange on Nov. 1, Orica said there remains no impact to its product supply in North America during litigation, and its contractual arrangements with customers in the region will continue to be met. It said the lawsuits do not impact Orica’s 2023 results, which will be released on Nov. 9.
Under the 2014 contract, CF committed to supply 700,000-800,000 st of IGAN and ammonium nitrate solution (ANS) on an annual basis for a period of at least 10 years beginning Jan. 1, 2017. The contract was later renewed and now runs through Dec. 31, 2031.
CF became the companies’ primary supplier of IGAN and ANS for the US and Canada markets. Product pricing under the related agreements was tied to the cost of natural gas, providing CF a defined margin.
The volumes specified required CF to increase ANS loading capacity and IGAN production capacity at its Yazoo City Nitrogen Complex in Mississippi. The plant reconfiguration began in 2014 at an estimated total cost of $65 million. At the time, CF said the agreements accounted for 70% of the annual AN capacity at the Yazoo City facility.
In its lawsuit, Orica said it also committed to investing substantial expertise and funding into the Yazoo City upgrade, providing technology and other proprietary information. ONB also said it promised to compensate CF for any under-recovery of its capital investment in the facility and to buy, with several significant exceptions, the AN expected for its North American Commercial Explosives business.
ONB said in exchange, CF promised to sell ONB a guaranteed minimum quantity of AN, at a fixed price subject to annual adjustments, for each year the agreement was in effect. ONB said CF also promised, with certain defined exceptions, not to sell Yazoo City AN to anyone in the commercial explosives industry except ONB to ensure that ONB received the quantities to run its business. ONB said the agreement acknowledged that ONB would be commercially dependent on CF for AN.
ONB said that while the parties worked cooperatively for several years, CF has recently threatened to withhold AN unless ONB complies with arbitrary restrictions that appear nowhere in the agreements. It added that CF maintains that ONB’s failure to comply with these restrictions constitutes a breach of the contract. As a result, ONB said CF purported to issue a formal notice of breach, declared that ONB cannot cure the alleged breaches, and initiated the agreement’s pre-litigation alternative dispute resolution process.
ONB said CF’s manufactured breach appears to be motivated by a desire to terminate the agreement so it can sell AN on the open market well before the 2031 contract expiration. ONB is asking the Court to enforce the agreements and is seeking a declaration that CF cannot unilaterally terminate the agreements or withhold ONB’s AN supply based on CF’s false breach allegations.
Much of the dispute appears to have happened between 2021-2023. CF said it exercised it rights to audit and a high-level scheme was uncovered in which ONB attempted to “game the system” by lying in the AN nominations in order to drive up their profits and avoid contractual liquidated damages. CF said ONB must only take its actual needs.
As an example, CF said ONB in 2023 told CF that it needed their maximum capacity. CF said by making this request, ONB blocked CF from selling any excess tons into the explosives market. CF said ONB had learned that CF was going to sell a large quantity of AN to a large customer. CF said ONB stole those sales for itself. CF says ONB must only take its actual needs.
CF also said that while ONB is expected to buy only from CF, it believes it is continuing to buy significant volumes from other parties. “Each and every one of those promises were broken in spades over the past few years,” said CF.
ONB said the auditor selected by CF was supposed to be “independent” under the contract but was not because it had done work for CF before. ONB said that on May 3, 2023, CF put ONB on notice of an event of default under the contract, largely based on the auditor’s report.
CF argued that ONB was buying AN over their actual needs in order to resell to third parties. ONB maintains these transactions are, and have always been, understood as part of ONB’s Commercial Explosives business. It said it has routinely sold unrefined AN from Yazoo City to its customers with CF’s knowledge, consent, and assistance.
As for the issue of buying from others, ONB said it has been forced to do so because of CF. It said that in late 2021, CF took down its Yazoo City plant from September through November with almost no notice to ONB. The buyers argued that a planned turnaround requires extensive planning and CF was required to give at least 150 days’ notice before the contract year during which the outage would occur.
This downtime occurred at the same time that Orica was having a planned AN outage at its Carseland, Alba., plant. As a result, ONB said that it faced a shrunken AN market and inventory shortage, and was required to buy AN from third parties in late 2021 and throughout 2022.
Nutrien Ltd. reported third-quarter net earnings of $82 million on sales of $5.63 billion, down from the year-ago $1.58 billion and $8.19 billion, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA was $1.08 billion, down from $2.47 billion.
While the company missed most Wall Street estimates, shares rose 2.27% in New York on Nov. 2. Analysts took note of the company’s commentary on supportive macro trends offsetting weaker-than-expected earnings, according to Bloomberg.
“Nutrien’s third-quarter results reflect the strength of agriculture and crop nutrient market fundamentals in North America,” said Ken Seitz, Nutrien President and CEO. “We delivered record potash sales volumes and are encouraged by the increased level of demand and market stability in the second half of 2023. We are optimistic on the outlook for our business and will continue to position the company to efficiently serve the needs of our customers.”
“Our focus is on initiatives that strengthen the advantages of our integrated business, drive operational efficiencies, and increase free cash flow,” he added. “We expect to deliver growth from highly targeted investment projects and maintain a balanced and disciplined approach to capital allocation, including the return of meaningful capital to our shareholders.”
Going forward, Nutrien has narrowed full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to $5.8-$6.4 billion from $5.5-$6.7 billion. It also narrowed adjusted net earnings per share to $4.15-$5.00 from $3.85-$5.60.
Nutrien told analysts that it expects US fertilizer demand will be up 5-10% in the fourth quarter compared to the prior year. However, the company lowered Retail adjusted EBITDA guidance to $1.45-$1.5 billion from $1.45-$1.6 billion to reflect pressure on crop protection product margins in South America and lower projected earnings in Australia, primarily related to weaker livestock markets.
Nutrien reported a record third quarter for potash sales volumes at 3.9 million mt, up 23% from the year-ago 3.17 million mt. The company has moved its full-year assessment of global potash shipments to 65-67 million mt from 63-65 million mt. For 2024, Nutrien projects 67-71 million mt in shipments.
Full-year potash adjusted EBITDA guidance rose to $2.3-$2.5 billion from $2-$2.5 billion and potash volumes to 12.8-13.2 million mt from 12.6-13.2 million mt, due to the strength of the North American market.
The company narrowed Nitrogen adjusted EBITDA guidance to $1.9-$2.1 billion versus the previous $1.8-$2.3 billion, saying higher benchmark prices offset lower projected sales volumes. The company lowered nitrogen sales volumes to 10.5-10.7 million mt, from 10.8-11.2 million mt, citing unplanned plant outages in the third quarter at Trinidad, Geismar, and Borger.
Nutrien reported a pull-forward of planned maintenance at its Borger site in the fourth quarter. A Borger turnaround had been planned for 2025. The Geismar outage was a five-year major overhaul with the facility experiencing some issues coming back up. The Trinidad outage was mainly due to gas curtailments and the company said it is in the final stages of finalizing its gas contract with the National Gas Co. of Trinidad. It expects to make an announcement in the near term.
The company told analysts that it completed two small brownfield expansions at Geismar and has installed the final of eight N20 abatement projects at its nitrogen plants. The debottlenecks came mostly at Geismar, and are expected to add 150,000-200,00 mt this year, mainly comprised of UAN with some ammonia. The segment also expects some smaller debottlenecks in 2024, which will add 40,000-50,000 mt.
Phosphate adjusted EBITDA was lowered to $450-$550 million from $500-$600 million due to the impacts of hurricane-related outages at White Springs in the third quarter and lower projected feed and industrial sales volumes.
While the company has been in an expansion mode in Brazil, it told analysts that it has paused additional investments until there is greater stabilization of the market. “We will utilize this period to integrate recent acquisitions and optimize our cost structure,” said Pedro Farah, Executive Vice President and CFO. He said the company still believes the long-term prospects for agriculture in Brazil are strong and sees opportunity for future growth of its retail platform.
Nutrien declared a quarterly dividend of $0.53 per share payable on Jan.12, 2024, to shareholders of record on Dec. 29, 2023.
Nine-month net earnings were $1.11 billion on sales of $23.4 billion, down from the year-ago $6.6 billion and $30.4 billion, respectively Adjusted EBITDA was $4.98 billion, down from $10.1 billion.
Potash (millions) | 3Q-23 | 3Q-22 | YTD-23 | YTD-22 |
Adjusted EBITDA | 611 | 1,378 | 1,941 | 4,811 |
Gross Margin | 583 | 1,618 | 1,936 | 5,432 |
Total Sales | 972 | 2,004 | 2,983 | 6,522 |
Sales Volume (000 mt) | 3,895 | 3,167 | 9,913 | 9,919 |
Avg ($/mt) | 250 | 633 | 301 | 658 |
Nitrogen (millions) | 3Q-23 | 3Q-22 | YTD-23 | YTD-22 |
Adjusted EBITDA | 294 | 855 | 1,539 | 3,090 |
Gross Margin | 154 | 664 | 1,094 | 2,582 |
Total Sales | 659 | 1,545 | 2,953 | 5,016 |
Sales Volume (000 mt) | 2,387 | 2,680 | 7,689 | 7,684 |
Avg ($/mt) | 276 | 577 | 384 | 653 |
Gas Costs ($/mmBtu) | 2.95 | 8.24 | 3.55 | 7.86 |
Phosphate (millions) | 3Q-23 | 3Q-22 | YTD-23 | YTD-22 |
Adjusted EBITDA | 90 | 143 | 340 | 566 |
Gross Margin | 27 | 114 | 163 | 477 |
Total Sales | 382 | 567 | 1,258 | 1,644 |
Sales Volume (000 mt) | 664 | 640 | 1,798 | 1,847 |
Avg ($/mt) | 575 | 886 | 700 | 890 |
Nutrien Ltd., the world’s largest maker of crop nutrients, is cautioning against any meddling in the economics of fertilizer markets. “The artificial injection of artificial constraints into supply-and-demand fundamentals never really works very well,” CEO Ken Seitz said during a Nov. 2 interview with Bloomberg.
The warning followed an Iowa Corn Growers Association (NCGA) call for US scrutiny of fertilizer pricing and the impact higher costs have on farmers and consumers. The group said it has crafted language that they want added to the next national farm bill that would “review competition and transparency in the fertilizer industry” and mandate an assessment of pricing by the US Department of Agriculture, according to a Nov. 2 NCGA statement.
NCGA said the requirement, if adopted, would help farmers understand why price increases are recurring and give Congress “adequate information on the exertion of market power by companies within the industry.”
While Seitz didn’t comment directly on the Iowa organization’s push, he stressed the competitiveness of the global fertilizer industry. “No one in this market by any measure controls prices,” he said. “There’s no such thing.”
Separately, Nutrien on Nov. 1 posted disappointing third-quarter profits amid weaker-than-expected fertilizer volumes and pricing. Seitz said the outlook for the October-December period in North America is strong, barring any weather issues.
Saudi Arabian Mining Co. (Ma’aden) on Oct. 31 said it has appointed Yasir bin Othman Al-Rumayyan as Chairman of the Board of Directors (Non-Executive) and Khalid bin Saleh Al-Mudaifer as Vice Chairman of the Board of Directors (Non-Executive). The appointments are for a term of three years, from Oct. 25, 2023, to Oct. 24, 2026.
The company also appointed Effat Saeed Badeeb as Secretary of the Board of Directors for the same three-year term.
London-based Kore Potash Plc, which is involved in the development of the Kola and DX Potash Projects in the Republic of Congo, on Oct. 31 announced the resignation of Brad Sampson as CEO. He has held the position since May 2018 and will continue in the job through November 2023. He resigned his position as Director, effectively immediately. Sampson is leaving to pursue other business interests.
The company does not intend to appoint a new CEO until after the receipt of the financing proposal for the construction of the Kola Potash Project. Chairman David Hathorn will assume the role of CEO in the interim.
“The Board and Management team of Kore Potash would like to thank Brad for his leadership and valuable contribution to the company over the last five years,” said Hathorn. “We wish Brad every success in the future.”
The company added that the process to reach agreement on Engineering, Procurement, and Construction contract terms, and to receive a financing proposal for the full construction cost of the Kola Potash Project, is now near completion and is expected to be finalized during first-quarter 2024, with construction contractors scheduled to be mobilized during first-half 2024.