U.S. Gulf: UAN price ideas remained under pressure again last week, with most putting recent trades within the $163-$170/st ($5.09-$5.31/unit) FOB range. Speculation was that East Coast pricing might also see a drop, from $190/mt to $180/mt CFR.
Eastern Cornbelt: UAN-28 was quoted at $204-$212/st ($7.29-$7.57/unit) FOB in Ohio and Indiana for prompt or prepay tons, depending on location. The UAN-32 market was reported at $240-$245/st ($7.50-$7.66/unit) FOB out of most Illinois terminals.
Western Cornbelt: UAN-32 was pegged at $240-$245/st ($7.50-$7.66/unit) FOB out of terminals in the Western Cornbelt, down $5-$10/st from last report, depending on location.
California: UAN-32 pricing had reportedly slipped to $235-$250/st ($7.34-$7.81/unit) FOB import terminals in California, with rail-DEL tons quoted at $265-$275/st ($8.28-$8.59/unit) on a spot basis.
Pacific Northwest: UAN-32 was quoted at $280-$290/st ($8.75-$9.06/unit) DEL in the Pacific Northwest, down roughly $10-$20/st from last report, with the upper end reflecting new posted levels from some regional suppliers.
Western Canada: UAN-28 was quoted at $320-$330/mt ($11.43-$11.76/unit) DEL in Western Canada in late December.
U.S. Gulf: High-water conditions and elevated flows stifled transit throughout the river system last week.
Bayou Sorrel Lock remained on a modified schedule due to the prohibitive conditions, and was shut down for four out of every 12 hours, shippers said. The move was designed to allow the lock to avoid specific high-water restrictions and flood-control measures.
Bayou Sorrel’s schedule pushed wait times to 6-8 hours for the week, with an average of five boats waiting to lock. Algiers Lock and Port Allen Lock each reported transit delays of 2-4 hours with two boats in line to lock, and passage through Industrial Lock was pegged at about an hour.
The river gauge at Baton Rouge read 31.7 feet and rising on Dec. 17, with forecasts calling for levels to hit 32.2 feet on Dec. 31. Baton Rouge flood stage begins at 35 feet. Depths at New Orleans were 12.8 feet and rising, but still below the 17-foot flood stage at that location.
Shippers reported weather-related delays at Houston and the West Canal, resulting in slowed barge pickup and drop-off for the week. Calcasieu Lock reported wait times of roughly an hour, and West Port Arthur Bridge clearance was reduced due to painting and maintenance activities. That work is set to conclude on April 30.
High flows at the Brazos and Colorado Locks tightened tow restrictions. Lockings were limited to a single loaded barge or two empty barges per turn, sources said, and unpredictable conditions at Brazos led some shippers to restrict passage to daylight hours only.
Shippers reported Brazos wait times at 4-8 hours for the week, while transit through the Colorado Lock system was put at 3-6 hours.
Lower Mississippi River: Shippers described high-water operating conditions on the Lower Mississippi River last week, leading to restricted tow sizes and longer transit times.
Near-flood-stage levels of 37.35 feet in the Vicksburg area on Dec. 29 led to daylight-only navigation for the week. Flood stage at Vicksburg begins at 43 feet. Memphis levels were reported at 27.16 and rising, and were predicted to reach 31.5 feet on Dec. 31.
Upper Mississippi River: Rising Mississippi River levels saw the Corps monitoring 19 levees for potential breeches last week. The rare winter flooding pushed the river to near-record depths on Dec. 29, registering nearly 20 feet above flood stage in some areas, according to reports. The Chester and Cape Girardeau gauges were forecast to crest slightly below record levels set in August 1993.
Water above the 38-foot mark at St. Louis shuttered St. Louis harbor from the JB Bridge to Lock 27, sources said. St. Louis levels were reported at 42.8 feet and rising on Dec. 30, well above the 30-foot flood stage. The Cairo gauge showed 51.6 feet and was expected to tip 54.0 feet by Dec. 31, also well above the 40-foot flood stage.
High-water levels forced the Mel Price auxiliary chamber to close for the week. The Lock 27 main chamber, which was shut down on Dec. 28 due to elevated river levels, was expected to reopen on or around Jan. 3.
The Corps’ annual rock removal project at Thebes, Ill., remains on hold until water levels at Cape Girardeau fall below 15 feet. Forecasts called for the river to crest at 44.9-46.9 feet at Cape Girardeau on Dec. 31. Work will cap tow lengths at 15 barges during daytime navigation, seven days per week. No limits are expected on overnight travel.
Lock 21 is scheduled to close for the navigation season on Jan. 4. Lock 9 shuttered on Dec. 9, and Locks 13, 14, and 17 closed on Dec. 17. Locks 13-21 are expected to reopen for the spring on March 4, followed by Lock 9 on March 17.
Illinois River: Dangerous levels on the Illinois River caused some shippers to cease navigation above Marseilles Lo
Grain Futures: As of 4:00 p.m. on Dec. 30, corn, soybean, and wheat futures were lower compared to the week before.
Corn for March 2016 was $3.59/bushel, down from $3.7425/bushel in the previous report. The May 2016 price for corn slipped to $3.6525/bushel from the $3.8025/bushel level reported on Dec. 17, while trading of December 2016 corn contracts checked in at $3.8325/bushel, down from $3.965/bushel at last report.
The January 2016 soybean price was $8.755/bushel, down from $8.77/bushel at last report. Soybeans for March 2016 had fallen to $8.7025/bushel from the previously reported $8.7775/bushel, while soybeans for November 2016 were posted at $8.8825/bushel, down from $8.94/bushel at last report.
Wheat for March 2015 was $4.655/bushel, down from the prior period’s $4.805/bushel. July 2016 wheat slipped to $4.86/bushel from $5.0175/bushel at last report, and September 2016 wheat contracts traded at $5.0025/bushel, down from $5.1575/bushel in the previous report.
Eastern Cornbelt: Extensive flooding was reported on parts of the Mississippi and Illinois Rivers last week due to heavy rain from Winter Storm Goliath.
The Mississippi River at Chester, Ill., was expected to crest at 49.7 feet on Jan. 1, while river levels at Thebes, Ill, were forecast to reach a record 47.5 feet on Jan. 1, more than 18 inches above the previous record set in 1995. Local reports said up to 2,500 hogs drowned in an Illinois barn last week after flood waters quickly spread from a nearby creek.
Freezing rain, flooding, and high winds also hit northern Indiana on Dec. 27. The storm hammered southeastern Ohio as well, with flood warnings in effect on Dec. 28-29 for portions of the Great Miami River, a tributary of the Ohio River.
Western Cornbelt: Powerful winter storms brought snow to Iowa and torrential rains to Missouri in late December. Central Iowa was hit with 3-5 inches of snow on Dec. 27, and more snow was expected across the state again at midweek. All of Iowa’s 99 counties were under National Weather Service storm advisories on Dec. 28.
Missouri received the brunt of the region’s storm activity in late December, with three-day rainfall totals ranging from 3-12 inches in an areas stretching from central Missouri down to northeastern Oklahoma. Missouri Gov. Jay Nixon declared a state of emergency on Dec. 27 due to extensive flooding along portions of the Mississippi River, and on Dec. 28 he activated the National Guard to assist first responders with evacuations.
The river began to overtop levees just north of West Alton, Mo., late on Dec. 28, prompting a flash flood warning from the National Weather Service. The Mississippi was expected to reach nearly 15 feet above flood stage on Dec. 31 at St. Louis, which would be the second-worst flood on record, behind only the devastating 1993 flood.
Although Nebraska was also bracing for a big winter wallop early in the week, the storm largely bypassed the state and focused its fury on Iowa and Missouri. Only two inches of snow fell on Dec. 27 in central and eastern areas of Nebraska, with even less in the western counties.
California: Cold weather gripped much of California during the final days of 2015. Temperatures plunged to freezing or near-freezing in many parts of Southern California and the Central Valley on Dec. 28, prompting frost advisories and freeze warnings for citrus growing areas. News reports said some growers ran wind machines and flooded orchards as a precaution.
December storms brought needed snowfall to the Sierra Nevada, with snowpack levels tracking ahead of average for this time of year. In the northern Sierra, the snowpack was reported at 116 percent of average last week, with the central Sierra at 121 percent of average and t
U.S. Gulf: Sources reported no new business in the Gulf sulfuric acid market. Price ideas were unchanged in the $45-$55/mt CFR range.
Australia: A train carrying roughly 1,500 mt of sulfuric acid derailed in Queensland on Dec. 27, spilling at least 60 mt in the crash, according to reports. The material, reportedly owned by Australian fertilizer producer Incitec Pivot Ltd. (IPL), was being transported to IPL’s phosphate manufacturing facility at Phosphate Hill.
Queensland Rail planned to build a temporary bypass around the derailment site to restore service. The temporary track was expected to be completed in 1-2 weeks.
It was unclear whether IPL phosphate production would be impacted by the spill. IPL did not respond to requests for comment.
Tampa: Sources called the domestic sulfur market quiet for the week, although speculation regarding the first-quarter price of molten sulfur delivered to Tampa continued to gain steam.
Settlement talks were not expected to begin in force until after the New Year, but complex market conditions gave observers plenty to debate as 2015 drew to a close.
Supply both at the domestic and international levels remained an important factor, sources said. Some argued that domestic supply is down headed into the first quarter, thanks to shrinking U.S. refinery runs due to softer crack spreads, along with refinery turnarounds at facilities like Alberta Oil Sands producer Syncrude.
A domestic supply downturn would stand in contrast to worldwide sulfur production, which is forecast to increase by up to 7 percent in 2016, according to industry sources.
On the consumption side, lower ammonia pricing for January has softened the sting of ongoing weakness in the domestic phosphate market, but unsteady farm economics means phosphate “volumes and demand will remain in question,” said one source.
Throw a strong U.S. dollar into the mix, which some argued is likely to translate to softer offshore pricing, and the result is a set of highly divided expectations for the first quarter. Price speculation ranged from a decrease of $5/lt from the fourth-quarter contract of $110/lt to as much as a $10/lt increase.
Domestic refining capacity grew for the week, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Utilization stood at 92.6 percent for the period ending Dec. 25, an increase of 1.3 percent from the previous week’s 91.3 percent and also ahead of the five-year average of 90.8 percent, but down from the year-ago 94.4 percent.
Average daily crude inputs rose to 16.682 million barrels/d, a 214,000 barrel/d increase from the last reported 16.468 million barrels/d.
U.S. Gulf: Gulf netbacks continued to be reported in the $115-$120/mt FOB range.
Vancouver: Sources described little-to-no movement in the Vancouver sulfur market.
Chinese spot was reportedly quiet ahead of the February Lunar New Year holiday. Last-done in that market was said to fall in the $130-$135/mt CFR range, translating to a $115-$120/mt FOB price at Vancouver.
A turnaround forced Alberta Oil Sands refiner Syncrude into reduced production for the week, sources said. Netbacks to Alberta producers continued to be quoted in the (-)$12-$85/mt FOB range.
West Coast: West Coast prills were unchanged at $110-$115/mt FOB.
Negotiations for the first-quarter price of West Coast molten sulfur were underway last week, sources said. Observers expected little change from fourth-quarter levels of $65-$115/lt FOB.
ADNOC: Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. sulfur for December was quoted at $130/mt FOB Ruwais, a $5/mt increase from November levels of $125/mt FOB.
Aramco: Saudi Aramco sulfur for December loading was offered at $128/mt FOB Jubail, $13/mt FOB higher than the November price of $115/mt FOB.
Tasweeq: Formed sulfur produced in Qatar fell to $119/mt FOB Ras Laffan for the month of January, a $10/mt drop from $129/mt FOB in December.
U.S. Gulf: Potash barge prices continued to be battered last week, with most now calling the market $240/st FOB, down from the previous $240-$250/st FOB. Sources said quotes of $240/st FOB were now common, and it would likely take a $235/st FOB to win the next round of business.
Eastern Cornbelt: The regional potash market was pegged at $280-$295/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, down $10-$15/st from last report, depending on location.
Western Cornbelt: Potash was pegged at $280-$290/st FOB regional warehouses in the Western Cornbelt, down another $5-$10/st from last report, with the low out of spot river locations in Missouri and the upper end quoted in the Iowa market.
California: The potash market was quoted at $425-$430/st FOB California warehouses, down some $40/st from fall pricing levels. Delivered potash tons were also lower at $430-$440/st.
Sulfate of potash (SOP) was pegged at $682-$695/st FOB or DEL in California, reflecting a $40/st drop from last report.
Crystalline potassium nitrate remained at $950/st FOB for bulk and $1,020/st FOB for bags.
Pacific Northwest: Potash pricing FOB Utah mines was down a full $45/st from last report, with the market quoted at $315/st FOB for 60 percent standard and $320/st FOB for 60 percent granular. The regional warehouse market had declined as well, to $360-$375/st FOB in the region, with delivered tons reported in the $375-$385/st range.
The sulfate of potash (SOP) market continued to be reported at $727-$737/st FOB in the Pacific Northwest.
SOP Magnesia pricing remained at $463-$483/st FOB in the region.
Western Canada: Sources reported lower potash prices in Western Canada at year’s end. The potash market was quoted at $450-$460/mt FOB regional warehouses, down some $20/mt from fall pricing levels, with the Saskatchewan mine price pegged at $425-$430/mt FOB to Canadian customers.
India: Buyers remain reluctant to confirm if they have secured a discount on the contract price of $332/mt CFR with 180 days credit, which was agreed to early in 2015 with international suppliers for potash import volumes during the current fertilizer year (April 1, 2015-March 31, 2016).
Suppliers maintain that they continue to ship volumes at the agreed-upon contract price and are not applying any discounts. However, some buyer sources indicate that discounts are being applied. The discount is reported to be $15/mt on the official contract CFR price, and is rumored to apply to all cargoes loading since Oct. 1.
Indian buyers agreed to annual contracts for the supply of an estimated 4.5 million mt of firm quantities of potash for shipment in the 2015/16 fertilizer year, with a further 600,000 mt or so estimated as optional quantities.
Data from India’s Department of Fertilizers shows that the country’s imports of potash for direct application totaled 2.412 million mt in the first seven months of 2015/16, about nine percent less than the 2.647 million mt imported during the same period in 2014/15. The imported quantities included product bought under tender as well as contract tons.
Sources said data from the Fertilizer Association of India puts November potash imports at about 180,000 mt, taking the estimated eight-month total to just over 2.5 million mt.
Southeast Asia: More potash purchase tenders are reported to have emerged in the past few weeks, with Felda and United Plantations reported to have issued tenders in Malaysia.
Suppliers said prices for standard material in Malaysia and Indonesia remain at the $290-$295/mt CFR level after earlier tender awards in Indonesia. However, buyer sources claim price i
Central Florida: Prices on the Central Florida phosphate market were called $380-$390/st FOB for the week, unchanged from the previous report. MAP was $10/st higher than DAP.
U.S. Gulf: Sources talked of a slow week of trading on the NOLA DAP market. Relatively few barges were reported to have changed hands, but transactions were described as firmer for the week at $330-$345/st FOB.
Some cited thinning prompt import offers for the price increase, but others pointed to a repeating cycle in the market. “This happens every year,” one trader said, describing a large year-end selloff pushing prices lower, leading to a New Year’s rebound.
Firming in the DAP paper market also received credit for pushing the barge price higher. Traders looking to cover their shorts at the end of the year may be finding few willing sellers, one market veteran said, resulting in an approximate $10/st FOB increase in DAP paper for February and March.
“The phosphate market is not that liquid, so when you have all these guys who are long on the market, who are so far out of the money with how far barges have come down this season, they’re just holding on until the price comes up,” one source said. “You basically have one or two (shorts) bidding up the price right now.”
Paper for February and March was called $345-$348/st FOB.
Many market players expressed wariness that the market had not strengthened to the degree indicated by the higher prices. A host of import vessels was still expected in the first quarter, and some speculated that depressed grain prices could conspire to keep barge prices low.
“There’s at least one, and maybe two Moroccan vessels on their way, and the PhosAgro guys are calling like crazy,” said one contact. “There’s still another Chinese vessel rumored, too.”
Most sources put MAP barges even with DAP, although some believed DAP was being offered at a premium. “We’re hearing MAP barges $5/st cheaper than DAP,” said one trader.
The NOLA barge market was quoted in a range of $330-$345/st FOB, up from $325-$345/st FOB at last report. MAP was generally called even with DAP at $330-$345/st FOB, above the previously reported $323-$335/st FOB range.
Eastern Cornbelt: DAP was quoted in a broad range at $380-$405/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, down another $5-$10/st from mid-December pricing levels, depending on location. MAP was $5/st higher than DAP.
The 10-34-0 market remained at $510-$515/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt. Agrium’s Jan. 1 phosphoric acid postings for rail-DEL SPA and MGA remained at December pricing levels of $1,090/st of P2O5 in Michigan.
Western Cornbelt: Sources quoted the DAP market in a broad range at $385-$405/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt in late December, depending on location, with the low in Missouri and the upper end in Iowa. Iowa sources said that level reflected a $10/st drop from mid-December pricing levels.
Sources quoted the DAP market FOB Catoosa, Okla., at $365-$380/st FOB in late December, also down $10/st from last report.
MAP continued to trade at a $5/st premium to DAP, where available.
10-34-0 was unchanged at $525-$540/st FOB for the last confirmed business in the Western Cornbelt.
Agrium’s Jan. 1 phosphoric acid postings include $1,050/st of P2O5 for rail-DEL SPA and MGA in Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, and $1,065/st of P2O5 for rail-DEL tons in the Dakotas, Oklahoma, and Texas. Those levels were unchanged from December postings.
California: Sources continued to quote posted prices for MAP in California at $545/st FOB or DEL from We
Eastern Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate remained at $265-$285/st FOB and $285-$295/st DEL in the Eastern Cornbelt. Ammonium thiosulfate was unchanged at $325-$335/st FOB in the region.
Western Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate was reported at $265-$275/st FOB regional terminals in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported in Missouri and the upper end in Iowa.
The ammonium thiosulfate market was unchanged at $295-$315/st FOB in the region.
California: Ammonium sulfate was unchanged at $270-$325/st FOB in California, depending on grade and location, with the low for standard and the upper end reflecting Simplot’s premium grade posting FOB El Centro. The Lathrop ammonium sulfate market was pegged at $285-$290/st FOB.
Ammonium thiosulfate was quoted at $275-$300/st FOB in the state, with the low for 11-0-0-24 FOB Stockton.
Pacific Northwest: IRM’s postings for Tranzform and WesternPremium ammonium sulfate moved on Dec. 15 to $300/st FOB and $310/st DEL in Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Montana, down $10/st from the previous list prices. The company’s standard grade ammonium sulfate reference prices remained at the Nov. 18 posted levels of $250/st FOB and $260/st DEL in the region.
Ammonium thiosulfate was unchanged at $320-$325/st FOB in the Pacific Northwest.
Western Canada: The granular ammonium sulfate market was reported at $400-$410/mt DEL in Western Canada.
U.S. Gulf: Like urea and UAN, ammonium nitrate was also under pressure in late December. Sources are now reporting the range at a broader $205-$215/st FOB.
Western Cornbelt: Ammonium nitrate was quoted in the $280-$285/st FOB range in the Western Cornbelt, reflecting a $5-$10/st drop from mid-December pricing levels.
California: AN-20 remained at $310/st DEL in California.
CAN-17 was pegged at $290-$317/st FOB import terminals in the state, while reference prices at inland locations remained as high as $327-$337/st FOB in late December.
Pacific Northwest: CAN-17 was unchanged at $300/st FOB Kennewick, Wash., and $325/st rail-DEL in the region. AN-20 was steady as well at $260/st FOB Kennewick and $270/st rail-DEL.
LSB Industries Inc.’s board of directors has appointed Interim CEO Daniel Greenwell as president and CEO. He has been interim CEO since September 2015.
Greenwell initially joined the LSB board himself at the urging of activist shareholder Starboard Value LP (GM April 10, 2014). He was Terra Industries Inc.’s corporate controller and senior vice president and CFO from 2005 until the CF Industries Holdings Inc. acquisition in 2010. He has served as partner and CFO of a private equity investment and advisory firm since September 2014. In 2013-2014, he was executive vice president and CFO of Sabre Industries Inc., which makes utility and cell towers. From 2012-2013, he held similar positions with Tronox Ltd., a producer and marketer of titanium dioxide pigment. He has also worked for Belden Inc., Zoltek Companies Inc., Sigma Chemical Co., and KPMG. He is a CPA and has a B.S. in Accounting from Truman State University.
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All information has been obtained by Green Markets from sources believed to be reliable. However, because of the possibility of human or mechanical error by our sources, Green Markets or others, Green Markets does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, or completeness of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information.
