U.S. Gulf: Barges continued to be called $195-$205/st FOB, with most citing the lower end of the range.
Eastern Cornbelt: Potash prices in the Eastern Cornbelt continued to tumble, fueled by another producer price cut in late February. PotashCorp reportedly lowered its river and inland warehouse pricing to $240-$245/st FOB, down approximately $20/st from the last reference price. Sources generally pegged the regional market at $240-$250/st FOB for the week.
“The high end is shrinking, the low end only slightly less, and some guys are seeing steady pull and looking for resupply,” said one contact. “The big push should be close, and maybe this is about the bottom as all other products are seeing upward price movement.”
Western Cornbelt: The potash market had reportedly fallen to $240-$250/st FOB regional warehouses in the Western Cornbelt, down $5-$10/st from last report, with the new levels reflecting lower producer prices that took effect in late February.
Southern Plains: The potash market FOB Catoosa was down to $240-$245/st FOB, with one source describing the current market as an “almost name-your-price opportunity.” The most recent reference prices FOB Carlsbad, N.M., were quoted at $260-$267/st FOB, depending on grade.
SOP Magnesia FOB Carlsbad was tagged at $350-$355/st.
South Central: The potash market was pegged at $240-$250/st FOB warehouses in the South Central region, down another $15-$20/st from last report, depending on location. The Memphis potash market was pegged at the $245/st FOB level in late February.
Southeast: Potash pricing continued to decline in the Southeast. Sources quoted the regional market at $240-$250/st FOB port terminals and $260-$268/st rail-DEL, down roughly $10/st from last report.
Malaysia: The potash market in Malaysia is quiet. The tendering season is over, with the big plantations having covered their requirements. Local sources say small buyers with outstanding requirements are mostly delaying purchases in the expectation of securing lower prices.
TDM Plantation Sdh Bhd. has reportedly not yet made an award under its tender for 7,000-8,000 mt of standard potash. Local sources assess prices for standard material as equivalent to $255-$260/mt CFR port bulk.
Taiwan: Taiwan Fertilizer Co. (TFC) has awarded its recently closed tender for 25,000 mt of potash. TFC has not disclosed the supplier or any price details. The tons are for April arrival at Taichung port.
Nepal: State-run Agriculture Inputs Co. Ltd. said it is still assessing the offers received under its tender for 5,000 mt of potash for delivery to the buyer’s warehouses. The tender closed on Feb. 15, and offers are to remain valid for 21 days after tender closing.
India: After two years of drought, the country could get a normal monsoon this year. India’s Economic Times reported that the El Niño weather phenomenon, which was responsible for the droughts, is expected to turn neutral during the monsoon season, according to Indian weather forecast models and a number of international models.
The droughts reduced crop plantings and led to a steep reduction in stocks of important agricultural commodities, so the prospect of normal rainfall has raised hopes for 2016/17 agricultural production and fertilizer consumption.
Last week, India’s government took the decision to halt imports of potash for the remainder of the current fertilizer year, which ends on March 31, amid a decline in domestic consumption and around 1 million mt of potash inventories (GM Feb. 19, p. 8).
With good monsoon rains during the June-September period, P.S. Gahlaut, the managing director of Indian Potash Ltd., anticipates potash imports of around 3.5 million mt in the next fertilizer year beginning in April. If the monsoon rains were to fail, a much smaller volume would be needed, he said.
In recent years, India has imported more than 4 million mt of potash annually. In the first 10 months of the current fertilizer year, imports are estimated to have fallen 22 percent year-over-year, to 2.942 million mt (GM Feb. 19, p. 9).
Brazil: Vale produced 137,000 mt of potash at its Taquari-Vassouras mine in Sergipe state in fourth-quarter 2015. This was up 10.3 percent from the 125,000 mt produced in the third quarter, but 6.8 percent below the 147,000 mt produced a year earlier.
Full-year production was 2.3 percent lower at 481,000 mt, down from 492,000 mt, which Vale attributed to lower ore grades at the mine.