U.S. Gulf: Most continued to put last-done NOLA potash somewhere in the $265-$275/st FOB range, although market bears argued that the market would likely drift to $260/st FOB or lower in the next round of business.
Eastern Cornbelt: Sources continued to quote the potash market at $310-$325/st FOB regional warehouses in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on grade and location. The Cincinnati market was pegged in the $314-$320/st FOB range last week, depending on grade and supplier.
Western Cornbelt: Potash pricing in the Western Cornbelt remained at $315-$325/st FOB most regional warehouses in late October. Although off to a slow start, some sources remained confident that fall volumes will still be applied. “I anticipate a close-to-normal season as I can currently see, although anything can happen or change,” said one Midwest contact.
Northern Plains: Potash pricing out of regional warehouses had reportedly slipped to $315-$320/st FOB in the Northern Plains, down another $10/st from last report.
North Dakota sources quoted delivered potash in the $310-$325/st range last week, also down $5-$10/st, with the market FOB Saskatchewan mines pegged at $280-$290/st for standard, $285-$295/st for granular, and $295-$300/st for soluble after netbacks.
Northeast: Potash was pegged at $320-$330/st FOB in the Northeast, reflecting another $10/st drop from last report. Rail-delivered potash was quoted in the $330-$340/st range in the region, depending on grade and location.
Eastern Canada: The potash market was reported at $500/mt FOB most regional warehouses in Eastern Canada, reflecting a $5-$10/mt drop from September pricing levels.
Sulfate of potash (SOP) was pegged at $925-$935/mt FOB in the region.
The SOP Magnesia market was $660-$685/mt FOB in Eastern Canada, depending on location.
India/China: Indian potash import buyers appear to have made little progress in their attempt to secure a discount on remaining shipments under current contracts. A number of international suppliers have indicated that they are not reviewing a discount on the $332/mt CFR level that Indian buyers agreed to earlier this year, and sources say that a discount is unlikely ahead of negotiations with China’s contract buyers.
The contract that Sinofert, CNAMPGC, CNOOC, and other major Chinese importers have with international suppliers expires on Dec. 31, while contracts with Indian import buyers run through to March 31, 2016. China’s import contracts were negotiated at $315/mt CFR.
ICL President and CEO Stefan Borgas said last week that suppliers are likely “to push back on requests for bargains,” noting that Chinese and Indian potash buyers are looking for a cut of $10-$20/mt on their next contracts with international suppliers.
Borgas said ICL would “always argue for more stable pricing or an increase.” If the industry is looking for new capacity, which he believes it needs four or five years from now, “then they need to give us an incentive to invest,” Borgas said.
A number of analysts quoted by Bloomberg over the past month, including Bank of Montreal (BMO), CIBC, and Bernstein, believe China’s 2016 contract prices will be tough to settle above $300/mt CFR. Bernstein believes Chinese contract prices for 2016 may come in around $280-$300/mt.
India’s RCF closes a tender for three lots of 35,000 mt of potash on Nov. 3 (GM Oct. 26, p. 9). National Fertilizer Ltd. (NFL) also is tendering for 50,000 mt of pink potash for delivery to Chennai port. This tender closes on Nov. 9.
Brazil: Sentiment remains weak, with litt