U.S. Gulf: The NOLA barge market continued to firm last week, according to most sources, who put NOLA prompt trades in the $205-$215/st FOB range. Others said these numbers are too high, with terminal prices still as low as $220-$235/st FOB. However, sources said new imports coming in later this fall could pressure the new NOLA numbers.
Eastern Cornbelt: Sources continued to report firming prices for potash in the region, with recent increases from North American producers “working their way into the markets.”
Terminal prices for the week included lows of $225/st FOB Cincinnati, $230/st FOB Burns Harbor, and $230-$235/st FOB out of most Illinois River terminals, and up to $250/st FOB on a spot basis based on recent posting hikes (GM Sept. 9, p. 8).
Agrium Inc. on Sept. 15 announced that its potash prices were going up $15/st FOB in the Cornbelt and at NOLA, effective immediately. PCS Sales also reported on Sept. 16 that it had raised potash postings for all grades by $15/st in North America, citing robust demand. The increases follow a similar announcement from Mosaic, which reported on Sept. 6 (GM Sept. 9, p. 8) that its potash postings were moving up $15/st, to $250/st FOB Midwest warehouses and $220/st FOB NOLA.
“There has been some pricing of consignment tons at pre-increase prices, but producers are now firm with the $15 price increase,” said one regional contact.
Western Cornbelt: Sources said potash prices in the Western Cornbelt had moved up to $235-$250/st FOB regional warehouses, with the low reported at St. Louis. Potash pricing out of Catoosa, Okla., was quoted at $220-$225/st FOB at mid-month.
Northern Plains: Potash was quoted at $230-$235/st FOB on the low end out of Northern Plains warehouses, up $10-$15/st from last report, with the low quoted for imported tons in the Twin Cities market. Warehouse postings from Canadian producers were quoted at $250/st FOB.
Rail-DEL tons in North Dakota were pegged in the $245-$265/st range, also reflecting an increase from last report, with the market FOB Saskatchewan mines quoted at $210-$225/st FOB after netbacks, depending on grade.
Great Lakes: Great Lakes sources reported a firming market for potash in September. Sources in Michigan and Wisconsin quoted the regional warehouse market for red granular tons at $235-$250/st FOB for new sales, depending on location and supplier, with white granular potash reportedly trading at a $4/st premium to red, where available. Those levels reflect an increase of roughly $25-$35/st from summer fill levels back in late July and early August.
Opinions were mixed, however, on whether the higher levels will actually see any business, particularly with crop prices under pressure. “Everyone tells me river potash supplies are thin and we won’t have Russian imports until November, so prices should be firm,” said one contact. “I don’t know, though, how much will sell at $250. Potash may be a good buy, but farm cash flow could easily limit fall (application).”
SOP Magnesia was quoted at $390/st FOB Michigan warehouses, down a full $60/st from last report.
Michigan sources quoted the sulfate of potash (SOP) market unchanged at $575/st FOB Toledo, Ohio.
Northeast: Regional sources reported a stronger potash market in the Northeast. Pricing out of Baltimore, Md., had reportedly moved up to $250/st FOB for new sales, while the potash market FOB East Liverpool, Ohio, was pegged at a firm $235/st FOB at mid-month. Sources also quoted rail-DEL tons at the $255/st level in the Northeast, although some maintained that discounts were possibly available.
Belarus: Belarus will keep its export duty on potash fertilizers unchanged at €55/mt ($61.8) in 2017, Deputy Finance Minister Yuri Seliverstov said at a briefing this week on the country’s national budget for 2017, according to Bloomberg. The export duty was increased to €55/mt from €45/mt on Jan. 1, 2016.
Belarusian Potash Co. (BPC) exported 1.1 million mt of potash in August, and a total of 5.8 million mt in the first eight months of 2016, Prime-Tass reported, citing a BPC representative.
India: Potash deliveries under the new supply contracts are continuing to arrive in the country.
Indian imports1 of potash for direct application in July and August
| Country of loading | Volume (mt) |
| Lithuania/Russia/CIS | 325,000 |
| Israel | 183,000 |
| Canada | 126,000 |
| Jordan | 98,000 |
| Germany | 0 |
| Total Indian imports | 732,000 |
1 Includes deliveries under recent tender awards as well as contract tons
Data source: India’s Department of Fertilizers
National Fertilizers Ltd. (NFL) has reportedly not yet made an award under its tender that closed Aug. 26 for the supply of a single 25,000 mt shipment of potash. Offers were to remain valid until Sept. 2 and the tons were requested for arrival no later than Sept. 15, a date that has now passed.
Meanwhile, RCF has issued a tender for the supply of 225 mt of potassium sulfate (FCO grade) for delivery in 25 kg bags to Nhava Sheva port during the second half of October. The tender closes Sept. 23, and offers are requested to remain valid for 30 days from tender opening.
Southeast Asia: Sentiment continues to tick up, with new season tendering activity starting to surface. Indonesia’s Petrokimia Gresik is reported to have issued a tender for potash supply, although few details have emerged.
Sources noted some slight firming in Malaysian prices from recent lows, with standard material now heard to be changing hands at $225/mt CFR, or even a tad higher. However, it remains to be seen whether the price push announced by Canpotex and BPC last month can be achieved. The potash exporters are looking for $240/mt CFR for standard potash and $260/mt CFR for granular, and other suppliers are said to be supporting these levels.
The Southeast Asian price range for standard is currently reported at $225-$260/mt CFR, with the high end reflecting sales into smaller regional markets, such as Vietnam and Thailand.
Brazil: Sources quoted granular prices as largely stable in the $230-$240/mt CFR range. While some suppliers are said to be targeting prices of $245/mt, this level has reportedly not yet been secured.