U.S. Gulf: Prompt barges saw higher numbers last week at $212-$217/st FOB, with most sources right in the middle at $215/st FOB.
MOP imports were up 18 percent in December, to 952,540 st from the year-ago 810,210 st. July-December imports were up 7 percent, to 5.02 million st from 4.71 million st.
While imports from Canada appear to be about level with year-ago numbers, the largest uptick in YTD came from Belarus at 266,607 st, up from 42,346 st, and Israel at 117,884 st versus 57,104 st.
Eastern Cornbelt: The potash market remained at $245-$265/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low quoted out of Cincinnati and other river locations, and the upper end at inland warehouses.
Western Cornbelt: Potash remained at $245-$260/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the St. Louis market quoted at $245-$250/st FOB in early February. The potash market FOB Catoosa was steady at $245-$250/st FOB for the week.
California: The California potash market was steady at $390-$400/st FOB and $395-$405/st rail-DEL. One source said all the winter precipitation has likely flushed chlorides out of the soil, which bodes well for potash rates this year.
Sulfate of potash (SOP) remained at $580-$590/st FOB in the state, with rail-DEL tons quoted at the $595/st level in the Central Valley.
Crystalline potassium nitrate was unchanged at $830/st FOB for bulk tons and $920/st FOB for 50-pound bags in California.
Pacific Northwest: Sources quoted the 60 percent potash market at $338-$348/st FOB in the Pacific Northwest, with rail-DEL tons roughly $10/st higher. Potash postings FOB mine locations at Moab and Wendover, Utah, remained at $290/st for 60 percent granular and $285/st FOB for 60 percent standard.
The sulfate of potash (SOP) market was steady at $560-$570/st FOB in the Pacific Northwest.
SOP Magnesia remained at $302-$322/st FOB regional terminals.
Western Canada: Potash was steady at $330-$340/mt FOB Saskatchewan mines, with regional warehouse pricing reported in the $345-$365/mt FOB range, depending on location.
China: With the country’s Lunar New Year celebrations now finished, negotiations for new supply contracts are anticipated to get underway shortly, and according to some sources, likely will start during the current month.
Some international suppliers are disinclined to speculate about the new China contract, but BPC is among those that believe the new supply contract will be “another [positive] step in the development of the market,” according to Belta, quoting the company’s press service.
Some analysts are taking bullish positions. Russia’s VTB Capital believes potash suppliers could secure as much as a 14 percent price increase with Chinese buyers, taking the new price to as high as $250/mt CFR, according to a Bloomberg report, citing VTB analyst Elena Sakhnova. Sakhnova noted improving spot prices on China’s domestic market, as well as an improved global supply-demand picture, as supporting the bullish outlook.
China’s potash inventories are also lower than at this time last year. Suppliers and the Chinese Buying Consortium last year finally settled on $219/mt CFR after delaying signed contracts until July and August. The 2016 contract price was a 30 percent reduction from the 2015 contract price of $315/mt CFR and the lowest in 12 years.
Some other sources talk of a possible $15-$20/mt CFR increase this year. Generally, a more timely settlement is expected for the 2017 seaborne import contract compared with last year.
China imported 1.034 million mt of potash in December, topping the one million mt mark for only the sixth time on record, according to The Mosaic Co.’s China NPK Statistical Update, citing Chinese Customs. Imports for the full 12 months fell 28 percent, however, to 6.83 million mt from 2015’s 9.44 million mt. Import volumes from all sources, except Russia, were lower in 2016.
Brazil: Positive agricultural fundamentals continue to support potash demand in the Brazil market. Sources said prices are getting a boost from talk of low inventories.
Delivered prices were higher this week, certainly at the top end of the range. At least two major suppliers said they recently achieved $250/mt CFR on some sales of granular tons. Among them was Canpotex, which said on its website that it has finalized pricing for “some smaller volumes” at the $250/mt CFR level.
Another major supplier put the current market for delivered tons in the $245-$250/mt CFR range, but it remains unclear if tons can still be secured at sub-$245/mt CFR levels.
Western Europe: Sources report that granular potash is being offered at up to €250/mt CIF, but this level is not believed to have been widely achieved. Amid limited new business, the Northwest Europe granular range was quoted within the €235 to low-€240s/mt CIF range.
Belarus: Belarusian Potash Co. (BPC) and Belaruskali exported 9.5 million mt of potash fertilizers last year, some three percent more than the 9.2 million mt shipped in 2015, according to Belta, citing BPC.
According to Bloomberg, the Belarus potash exporter’s share of the potash export market last year was about 20 percent. However, Belarus potash revenues were down by roughly a quarter from 2015, according to BelaPan. The revenue drop reflected lower potash prices, the low purchasing power of key customers, and the late signing of several major contracts, the news agency reported, citing Ivan Golovaty, Belaruskali’s general director.
Actual 2016 revenues have yet to be disclosed. As previously reported, BPC said it is fully committed for the first quarter, as a number of other potash exporters have reported. While the export organization sees the 2017 potash market as “positive,” it does not believe the market is yet in a condition to allow Belarus to boost its potash exports above 10 million mt this year, according to a Bloomberg report, citing Russia’s VTB Capital.
BPC said it supplied some 350,000 mt of potash to American customers in 2016, according to Belta, citing the potash exporter’s press service. The company said it has not yet gained a firm foothold in the American market and is pursuing a policy of “gradual restoration of traditional volumes,” according to the news agency.
Belarus shipped around 178,000 mt of potash to the U.S. in 2015. No volumes were believed to have been exported from the country to the U.S. in 2014.
Canada: Canpotex has previously said it is fully committed through the first quarter. According to Mosaic Executive Vice President and CFO Richard Mack in the company’s Feb. 7 earnings call, the Canadian potash export organization is scheduling a “very robust shipment schedule” in the first half of 2017.