U.S. Gulf:
The potash barge market was reported as quiet, though sources indicated that price ideas for the next trade may have drifted lower from the previous $675-$685/st FOB.
Cornbelt:
Warehouse prices for potash continued to fall in the $710-$730/st FOB range for December and Q1 offers in the Cornbelt.
Brazil:
There are growing concerns that sanctions against Belarus could cause a shortage of MOP in Brazil. The U.S. sanctions against Belarus Potash Co. take effect in April 2022. Traders have until then to divest themselves of their product and cancel any contracts for deals beyond April 1.
Even before the U.S. sanctions kick in, there was concern that Belarusian potash may cost more because of increased freight rates. The Lithuanian government announced they will no longer allow potash from Belarus to be shipped through its country to the export facilities. This move could force Belarus to seek out a more expensive route for its product. In the meantime, the Belarus government is contesting the action.
China:
January-November MOP imports were reported at 7.4 million mt, down 10.7 percent from the 8.3 million mt imported during the same period in 2020, according to Trade Data Monitor. The main suppliers for 2021 were Russia at 2.2 million mt, Canada at 2 million mt, and Belarus at 1.7 million mt.
November 2021 imports were down 10 percent, to 694,000 mt from 774,000 mt in November 2020. The November total was higher than October 2021 imports of 619,000 mt, however.
Thailand:
January-November 2021 imports of MOP were reported at 898,000 mt, up 30 percent from the 690,000 mt imported during the same period in 2020, according to Trade Data Monitor.
November 2021 MOP imports were reported at 79,000 mt, up from 23,000 mt in November 2020. The bulk of MOP purchases in Thailand take place in the second and third quarters of the year.