US Gulf:
While some continued to report NOLA potash trades at the $360/st FOB level for imports in early-week business, most said the market had firmed to $370-$375/st FOB as the week progressed, with confirmed business at the $380/st FOB level late on April 6. “There seems to be very little product available at NOLA,” commented one industry source.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Potash was reported at $425-$440/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reflecting most river terminal offers and the high at inland warehouses. The Cincinnati potash market was pegged at $425-$435/st FOB in early April, with the Ottawa market reported at $435/st FOB.
Western Cornbelt:
Potash terminal prices tightened to $425-$445/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low at St. Louis and the high in Iowa.
Southern Plains:
The potash market was quoted at $425-$440/st FOB in the Southern Plains, with the low reported at Houston and the high at Catoosa/Inola. The last potash postings from Intrepid FOB Carlsbad, N.M, included $515/st for 60% white granular and $525/st for 62% white standard.
South Central:
Southeast:
The last potash price was quoted at the $430/st level FOB Wilmington, but sources said available tons were tapped out at that location as the week progressed.
India:
New potash supply contracts with Indian Potash Ltd. (IPL), India’s largest importer, were inked by Canpotex and Russian producer Uralkali at $422/mt CFR for tons shipped through Sept. 30, 2023, down sharply from the $590/mt CFR agreement concluded last year with both India and China.
Canpotex announced the new contract terms on April 4, with Uralkali’s announcement following on April 5, though Uralkali said in its statement that it was the first producer to reach an agreement with IPL. Neither producer disclosed the volumes projected under the agreements.
“The agreement is an objective reflection of the current situation in the industry,” said Uralkali CEO Vitaly Lauk. “We can see a positive reaction to our initiative from the market and believe that the Indian contract is going to be a key price benchmark this year.”
“Canpotex has reliably supplied India with high-quality Canadian potash for over 50 years,” said Gordon McKenzie, Canpotex President and CEO. “We are committed to supporting India’s growing potash needs, and this contract will provide a reliable, stable supply of potash to our valued customer, IPL.”
Whether the new price sets the benchmark that producers hope for remains to be seen. “India’s potash contract purchase for an unknown volume at $422/mt CFR is unlikely to stabilize prices in a softening market,” said Alexis Maxwell, Green Markets Research Director. “Inventories are high in North America as the planting season starts amid unfavorable weather, and 2Q marks a slow period for global trade.”
Brazil:
The new potash contract price at India had yet not filtered into Brazilian price calculations as the week ended. Sources said the landed price remained at $400-$440/mt CFR.
Some in Brazil are calling India’s $422/mt CFR price a floor, in the hope that prices will rebound. Others, however, described the price as a ceiling, expecting that subsequent buyers will be able to secure better prices after the market calms down.
The price in Rondonopolis shifted down slightly to $540-$565/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Sources expect the price to drop to $520/mt FOB ex-warehouse soon.
Thailand:
January-February potash imports totaled 83,000 mt, Trade Data Monitor reported, up from the year-ago 63,000 mt.
February imports were noted at 34,000 mt, against 21,000 mt recorded in February 2022. Belarusian material accounted for about one-third of the February imports with 12,000 mt, while Canada supplied another 7,000 mt.