Tampa:
Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty was expected to drive the Tampa sulfur price higher in the next round of contracting, sources said. Sharp increases observed from a number of international markets in recent weeks were expected to apply upside pressure, players noted, as were snug domestic supply and rising NOLA phosphate prices.
Players also turned an eye toward Moroccan phosphate producer OCP, which reportedly noted a shifting production focus toward MAP during the week due to that product’s reduced ammonia content relative to DAP.
“Sulfur could go up in price significantly if OCP gets enough ammonia to replace their roughly 50 percent dependency on FSU (Former Soviet Union) tonnage,” one player argued. “(Conversely,) sulfur could drop through the floor if they cannot source enough ammonia to make DAP.”
Some also questioned whether Tampa molten sulfur contracts could see a period of monthly settlements due to the market’s ongoing uncertainty, a change from Tampa’s traditional quarterly agreements.
The first-quarter Tampa contract was quoted at $282/lt CFR. Some speculated on a possible $70-$100/lt increase in the next contract.
Domestic U.S. refining capacity moved higher for the week, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported. Utilization was noted at 90.4 percent for the week ending March 11, up 1.1 points from the previous 89.3 percent. The rate continued to top both the year-ago 76.1 percent and the 86.1 percent five-year average.
Crude inputs were also noted higher, climbing to an average 15.601 million barrels/d through the period, a 224,000 barrel/d increase from 15.377 million barrels/d at last report.
U.S. Imports:
January sulfur imports totaled 334,411 st, up 13.8 percent from the year-ago 293,877 st. July-January imports were counted at 1.98 million st, however, an 8.3 percent decrease from the year-ago 2.16 million st.
U.S. Exports:
Sulfur exports for January stood at 49,570 st, down 28.3 percent from the year-ago 69,098 st. July-January exports were reported at 837,562 st, however, up 26.2 percent from the prior-year 663,781 st.
U.S. Gulf:
Following Brazil higher, market players generally pegged Gulf export sulfur values in the $365-$375/mt FOB range.
Brazil:
Brazil import pricing was reported firming to $410-$415/mt CFR for the week, increasing from $390-$395/mt CFR in the prior report.
Vancouver:
With China pricing on the rise, players reported Vancouver levels firming to the $380-$390/mt FOB range, rising from the week-ago $350-$355/mt FOB.
Alberta:
Alberta netbacks were expected to move higher based on rising Vancouver pricing, with values indicated in a wide $167-$320/mt FOB range for the period.
West Coast:
West Coast prills were noted on par with Vancouver at $380-$390/mt FOB, up from $350-$355/mt FOB at last report.Molten tonnage loading from locations on the West Coast was contracted at $230-$245/lt FOB for the first quarter, sources said.
China:
China import prices were reported moving up to $430-$435/mt CFR during the week, increasing from $400-$405/mt CFR in the prior report.
ADNOC:
Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC) prills were heard offered at $335/mt FOB Ruwais for March loading, up $15/mt from $320/mt FOB in February.
Qatar:
March tons offered by Muntajat were noted at $333/mt FOB Ras Laffan. Qatar pricing was reported at $315/mt FOB in February, an $18/mt difference.
Kuwait:
Kuwait solid sulfur offers were reported at $343/mt FOB, an increase of $28/mt compared to $315/mt FOB in the prior period.