Tampa: Speculation on a potential landing spot for the second-quarter price of molten sulfur delivered to Tampa began to intensify last week.
All agreed the likely direction for next-quarter pricing was down. Continued weakening in the international markets following the conclusion of first-quarter negotiations makes a second-quarter decrease a virtual certainty, sources said.
“The market is still soft,” one market player offered. “(Tampa) will definitely be down for Q2.”
Speculation on the severity of the potential decrease ran the gamut. Expectations of a $10-$15/lt drop were common, based primarily on recent international pricing. “I am sure we will be down to around $85/lt to ‘match’ the world, even though (the price decrease) has been more affected by currency changes than anything else,” said one observer.
Some offered more ominous predictions of a $20-$30/lt drop, however, founded on rumors of molten sulfur tons offered in the Gulf region in the $60s/lt FOB.
The first-quarter contract for molten sulfur delivered to Tampa was $95/lt, $15/lt below the fourth-quarter 2015 price of $110/lt.
Domestic refinery runs increased for the week, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Utilization was reported at 89.1 percent for the period ending March 4, a 0.8 percent uptick from the prior week’s 88.3 percent, and also above the year-ago 87.8 percent and the five-year average of 85.8 percent.
The EIA put average daily crude inputs higher as well. Inputs average 15.911 million barrels/d, a 59,000 barrel/d increase from the prior week’s 15.852 million barrels/d.
U.S. Gulf: Sources called the U.S. Gulf market unchanged at $75-$80/mt FOB for the week.
U.S. Imports: January imports were up 29 percent, to 148,189 st from the year-ago 115,277 st. January-July imports were off 5 percent, to 981,950 st from 1.04 million st.
Vancouver: Vancouver traders and producers quoted the spot market in a range of $75-$85/mt FOB for the week, unchanged from last report. Contract prices continued to run even with spot, sellers said.
Cargoes to China remained stuck in the $85-$90/mt CFR range, although some market players expressed hope for second-quarter firming. “I was looking at late Q2 cargoes into South East Asia,” a trader said. “There were a couple of bites above $90/mt CFR, but nothing definitive.”
Alberta sellers continued to describe netbacks in the (-)$27-$60/mt FOB range.
West Coast: The West Coast formed sulfur market was unmoved at $70-$80/mt FOB last week.
First-quarter contracts for molten sulfur were reported at $65-$115/lt FOB.
ADNOC: The price of Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. prill was $88/mt FOB Ruwais for the month of March, a $17/mt FOB decline from February’s $105/mt FOB.
Aramco: Saudi Aramco March formed cargoes continued at $90/mt FOB Jubail, a drop of $25/mt from the February price. April pricing is expected to be announced around March 15.
Tasweeq: March offers from Qatari state-producer Tasweeq were listed at $87/mt FOB Ras Laffan, $2/mt below February’s $89/mt FOB.