More than 600 industry representatives gathered in Scottsdale, Ariz., on Feb. 6-8 for The Fertilizer Institute’s 2017 Annual Meeting. While urea and ammonia availability for the spring planting season remained a common theme in discussions, attendees and speakers were also quick to offer opinions on the Trump administration and what to expect in terms of policy.
TFI President Chris Jahn told conference-goers that “rural America and agriculture are front and center in Washington for the first time in a long while,” but warned that Trump’s quick action on multiple fronts “could result in a slew of litigation.”
Jahn also highlighted the industry’s ongoing need to “reposition” itself and “tell a positive story” about safety and environmental responsibility, noting that “the fertilizer industry is twice as safe as the chemical industry.” He cited a Jan. 18 story in the New York Times about Sonny Perdue, President Trump’s pick for USDA secretary, which quoted an environmental group’s opinion that “a former fertilizer salesman” would be unlikely to “tackle the unregulated farm pollution that poisons our drinking water, turns Lake Erie green, and fouls the Chesapeake Bay and the Gulf of Mexico.”
Economist and author Dr. Alan Beaulieu offered a rosy picture of the U.S. economy in his opening keynote address, along with a somewhat less enthusiastic assessment of the Trump presidency. “There is no easy way to change large things in this country, and that’s a good thing,” he said, likening the U.S. to a “slow-moving ship” that takes time to adjust. “No matter what happens, rollbacks take time,” he said. “Nothing is going to happen quickly.”
Beaulieu said the U.S. economy was already “swinging up” and “firing on a lot of cylinders” before the November election, fueled by high GDP and robust industrial production. He warned, however, that there will be a recession in Trump’s first term based on the proven four-year recession cycle.
“If you’re excited about Mr. Trump, I don’t want to throw water on you,” he said. “But my prediction is that Mr. Trump is a one-term president.” While the industry audience was largely receptive and friendly to Beaulieu’s message, that statement prompted one attendee to shout “Wrong!” from the front row.
Beaulieu said the U.S. economy is the world’s largest, boasting 24.5 percent of global GDP compared with 15 percent for China and just 1.7 percent for Russia. He noted, however, that more than half of the U.S. population doesn’t know this or believes the opposite.
Beaulieu said the U.S. is a global leader in oil and natural gas production as well, and can be energy independent any time it wants. Recalling the early 1970s, he said “our kids won’t know anything about oil embargoes and gas lines.” He said the coal industry is dying, however, and will not make a comeback. “Renewable energy is a field that will last,” he said, noting that the U.S. has already met the carbon dioxide emissions standards of the Kyoto Protocol even though it is not a party to that agreement.
Beaulieu said the positive GDP outlook “bodes well for farm income,” predicting that the long slide in farmer income is nearing a trough and will likely improve in 2017/18. “All leading indicators show a strong and growing economy” with commodity prices moving up, he said.
Beaulieu said consumers are benefiting from favorable interest rates, stable currency, and high paying jobs, with median incomes going up even when adjusted for inflation. In the industrial sector, he said there are more investment dollars coming into the U.S. than ever before. “The U.S. is almost at a record high level of manufacturing, and is the second most competitive nation globally in terms of manufacturing,” he said.
He highlighted a number of economic concerns, however, including growing national debt and health care expenditures that remain too high as a percentage of GDP. Globally he said China “is a mess” and South America “is a disaster” because of inflation, corruption, and protectionism, but he cautioned attendees not to worry about Great Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union, referring to Brexit as “a peaceful divorce.”
Perhaps his most dire warning was directed at protectionism and the erection of trade barriers, which he said cause inflation and inefficiencies, shortages of materials, and production disruptions. “You need to deal with unfair trade practices, but don’t be lulled into thinking that we can put up barriers,” he said. “You can repeal NAFTA, but replace it with what?”
Supermarket Guru and consumer analyst Phil Lempert gave the second keynote, detailing trends in food production and the many changes taking place in the grocery retail space. Lempert said traditional grocery stores are failing, while non-traditional stores that are focused on “waste-free” and “fresh” formats, health and wellness, enhanced nutrition and sustainability, and social activism are doing well. As an example of this shift, he said Amazon Go convenience stores will be one of the top three food retailers in the next ten years.
The conference also featured an updated on the 4R nutrient stewardship program by three scientists who are engaged in ongoing field research projects.