Many attendees at The Fertilizer Institute’s (TFI) World Fertilizer Conference in San Francisco on Oct. 1-3 were upbeat, citing firming fertilizer prices. Some were surprised by the price increases the industry has seen since the Southwestern Fertilizer Conference in July. The question now is how much stamina pricing will have going into the fall and spring seasons.
Most players at the conference said they expect an early harvest with high yields, which will pull many nutrients from the soil and prompt farmers to apply plenty of NPK, weather permitting. Despite concern about low soy and corn prices, most expect 2019 corn acreage to be up significantly, climbing to 92-95 million acres, if not higher. With a large jump in corn acreage, sources expect plenty of fertilizer to be used in 2019.
At the general session, TFI President Chris Jahn reminded attendees of the ongoing public relations issues faced by the industry as TFI continues to work to protect their right to operate. He mentioned the current media tour of environmentalist Erin Brockovich in Florida, who is highlighting the red tide issue, as well as Ohio Governor John Kasich’s proposal to designate fertilizer as an ag pollutant, which would result in more regulation of fertilizer.
Jahn noted that Global Fertilizer Day is Oct. 13, and said TFI has plenty of resources to help members to engage with the public on social media.
Former National Security Advisor and CIA Director Michael Hayden gave an overview of the current global geopolitical situation. While noting that there have been much more dangerous times in U.S. diplomatic history, citing the Cuban missile crisis, he warned that he has never seen a more complicated environment than at present. He said he has never seen a time when actions could be more immediate, observing that when things happen here, they bump events elsewhere.
Hayden said he has not personally criticized President Trump, but he has taken issue with some of his policies. He said the last 75 years of peace, productivity, and improved health and education have been guided by the U.S. He said Trump’s “America First” policy is not compatible with that world leadership, however. He said if the U.S. does not lead, then there will be no leader unless it is China, which traditionally looks inward.
Hayden said three major categories are good for America – immigration, trade, and alliances. Today, all three are jump balls or are being hotly debated. Hayden and the other session speaker, Brian Beaulieu, CEO of ITR Economics, both had the same advice for President Trump – get off the phone.
Beaulieu gave an upbeat view of the economy, saying it is at a very good place in the business cycle, with much upside potential over the next four years. He said he does expect the economy to stall a bit in 2019-2020, but he sees long-term growth. While we may see a stock market correction in the first quarter of 2019, he advised attendees to buy into it, as the economy and market will continue to go up for some time.
Beaulieu told those aged 57 and older not to worry, but he cautioned those 44 and younger, saying they can expect a major economic downturn at some point. He said he foresees no Great Recession until at least 2030. He also sees high rates of inflation on the horizon. He advised buying real estate and borrowing money at today’s rates and investing.
As for tariffs, Beaulieu said the U.S. has never had them at the top of the business cycle; it has always been at the bottom. He said he is particularly concerned about China, noting that if we push them too hard, they can push back hard given that they own so much of the U.S. debt.
He said he is also concerned that the U.S. has continued to add to its debt, with some $953 billion added under Trump. He said if the U.S. does not figure out how to deal with the debt, the rest of the world will lose confidence in the U.S. He said currently the U.S. government is a major problem for the world.
In other news, it was the last TFI meeting to be presided over by Linda McAbee, TFI Director, Meetings and Conferences. McAbee is retiring after some 40 years and service under five TFI presidents.