The U.S. Biden administration is considering a new round of economic sanctions against Belarus that could target the potash and oil sectors, according to a Wall Street Journal (WSJ) article on July 25.
The possible sanctions were discussed at a meeting in Washington last week between exiled Belarus opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and U.S. officials. Tsikhanouskaya has been pressing for tougher U.S. action.
President Joe Biden said on Twitter after speaking with the exiled opposition leader at the White House on July 27 the U.S. “stood with the people of Belarus in their quest for democracy and universal human rights,” Bloomberg reported.
The meeting was seen as a symbolic show of support. Nevertheless, Tsikhanouskaya is the first politician from the former Soviet Republic to receive such high-level treatment by a U.S. leader since Belarus became independent in 1991.
According to the Belarus opposition leader’s senior advisor, Franak Viačorka, cited by the WSJ article, State Department officials indicated their intent to enact new sanctions, specifically on the Belarusian potash and crude-oil sectors, in addition to other important parts of the Belarusian economy.
Potash is Belarus’ second top export after refined oil products, and in 2019 Belarus’ potash and oil exports together accounted for some 25 percent of the country’s exports in U.S. dollar terms, according to U.N. Comtrade data.
But State Department spokesperson Ned Price declined to discuss specific U.S. actions or possible sanctions on crude oil and potash with the WSJ.
The U.S. imported 624,270 short tons of potash from Belarus in fertilizer year 2020 (July 1-June 30), according to TFI data, and in the 2021 fertilizer year to date (July-May), the country imported 713,000 short tons from Belarus.
Belarus is understood to ship mostly 0-0-60 grade potash to the U.S. This grade is one of Belarus’ key potash export products.
The European Union (E.U.), in a sweeping set of further sanctions imposed against the Belarusian regime on June 24 (and implemented the following day), excluded this grade from its list of potash to be sanctioned, that is: “potassium chloride with a potassium content evaluated as K2O by weight, exceeding 40 percent, but not exceeding 60 percent on the dry anhydrous product” (GM June 25, p. 1). This grade of potash accounts for about 80 percent of Belarus supplies to the E.U.
The E.U.’s economic sanctions also include restrictions on Belarusian trade in oil products into the European bloc but excludes crude oil, which, as noted in the WSJ report, “leaves an opportunity” for the U.S. to compound the impact.
New sanctions by the U.S. against the Belarusian regime would be in addition to those imposed by the Biden administration earlier this year, which included punitive measures against Lukashenko, as well as against Belarus’ top prosecutor and Lukashenko’s top spokesperson, among others of the Belarus president’s associates, and also the chairwoman of Belarus’ upper house of parliament.
However, Green Markets Research Director Alexis Maxwell does not see “much of an appetite” from the U.S. to target Belarus with economic sanctions.
This week, the embattled Lukashenko was reported to have unleashed a new round of repression in the country against political opponents, activists, and journalists, shutting down independent media outlets and non-governmental organizations.