U.S. Gulf: Granular prompt barge trades dipped to as low as $227/st FOB, according to sources last week, although trading began as high as $240/st FOB. At the end of the day Thursday, most were putting the market within the $228-$235/st FOB range.
Some argued that a large amount of product is on its way into the U.S. Others said the amount is about the same as the year-ago figure, but the players – Dreymoor and RWE – are different. Sources were in more agreement, however, that the buyers may not have been lined up. Others also pointed to CF’s new capacity at Donaldsonville, both for urea and UAN, which is due up this quarter and will add tons to the mix.
Prills were also reported to be down. Product was now priced at $235-$236/st FOB, with no takers.
Eastern Cornbelt: The granular urea market remained under pressure in the Eastern Cornbelt, with spot pricing down roughly $5-$8/st from last report.
Sources quoted the low end of the regional market at $277-$280/st FOB Cincinnati, Ohio, with pricing out of most river terminals in Indiana and Ohio ranging from $280-$290/st FOB. The upper end of the regional market was pegged at the $295/st FOB level out of some inland locations.
Western Cornbelt: Urea prices remained flat at $285-$300/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low in Missouri and the upper end out of spot Iowa terminals.
Northern Plains: Granular urea was pegged at $290/st FOB the Twin Cities, reflecting a $5-$10/st drop from late October pricing levels. North Dakota sources quoted rail-DEL urea at $316/st on the low end of the range, with the upper end reported at $330/st DEL or FOB Carrington, N.D.
Great Lakes: Granular urea pricing covered a broad range in the Great Lakes region last week. While Wisconsin sources pegged the low end of the market at the $300/st FOB level, Michigan sources quoted a wider range at $305-$335/st FOB, with the low at Courtright and the upper end FOB Webberville.
Northeast: Granular urea pricing was lower in the Northeast. Sources quoted the regional market at $295-$300/st FOB, down $5-$10/st from last report, with the low reported at East Liverpool, Ohio, and the upper end FOB Fairless, Pa.
India: As of Friday at close of business in India, no official announcement was posted on the IPL website for the anticipated IPL tender, nor did traders report receiving a notice of a tender from IPL. Sources say rumors remain plentiful the tender could be called at any time. One source said he had heard the tender – once called – will close November 27. Other sources say that means the announcement would have to come no later than COB Monday, Nov. 23.
Sources say companies that received awards in the previous tender appear to have booked their tons and locked in vessels to deliver the product on time. The time it now ripe, say industry watchers, for IPL to call its tender.
The overall softness in the market was evidenced by reports that granular product was included in some of the tonnage shipped under the STC tender of last month. At a minimum, said one source, the actions of these traders indicate that prilled and granular urea are essentially at parity in China.
One trader explained that IPL wants to wait until all the STC tons are booked. The idea is to not overlap inquiries for tonnage and have the Indian buying houses compete for the same tonnage.
The tender call is also expected quickly because prices are coming off at production operations from China to Egypt. Buyers are also demanding lower prices. The drop in NOLA prices, said one trader, is almost making the U.S. a unique market that needs to be boxed off from the rest of the world.