U.S. Gulf:
NOLA granular urea barges quickly shot up early in the week to as high as $900/st FOB. For the week, sources placed the range at $770-$900/st FOB for March business, up from the week-ago $600-$740/st FOB. Full-April trades were reported at $755-$915/st FOB.
NOLA prills were reported to have traded at around $860/st FOB, up $200/st from the last reported business.
Eastern Cornbelt:
The urea market firmed to $935-$955/st FOB terminals in the Eastern Cornbelt, up dramatically from the prior week’s broad $725-$775/st FOB range. Both the low and high ends of the new range were reported at Cincinnati, Ohio, as the week progressed, with the $955/st FOB level also confirmed at Ottawa, Ill.
In the Great Lakes region, Michigan sources quoted urea pricing at $955-$985/st FOB during the week, depending on location.
Western Cornbelt:
The urea market was quoted at $910-$950/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location and time of the week, up dramatically from the prior week’s $720-$760/st FOB range. Both the high and low ends of the range were reported at St. Louis, Mo., during the course of the week.
Sources pegged the Catoosa/Inola, Okla., urea market solidly at the $920-$940/st FOB level at midweek.
Northern Plains:
Urea reportedly firmed to $900-$940/st FOB and $970-$1,015/st DEL in the Northern Plains, depending on the time of the week, up significantly from the prior week’s ranges of $760-$805/st FOB and $795-$840/st DEL Sources pegged the St. Paul, Minn., market firmly at the $940/st FOB level at midweek.
Northeast:
Urea pricing jumped to $950-$955/st FOB in the region, with the high confirmed at East Liverpool, Ohio, at midweek. That range was up from $750-$780/st FOB the previous week, and some $300/st higher than pricing levels in mid- to late-February.
In the Southeast, sources reported new urea offers at $940/st FOB Savannah, Ga., and $950/st FOB Wilmington, N.C., for April tons.
Eastern Canada:
The urea market was quoted at C$1,375-$1,400/mt FOB in Eastern Canada, up dramatically from the last reported range of C$1,165-$1,235/mt FOB in late February.
Pacific Northwest:
Sources reported new urea pricing at $950/st FOB FOB Rivergate, Ore., up from $830/st FOB the week before.
China:
Sources said the only shipments of urea coming out of China are either smuggled out or are small container deals for countries that mostly need the product for emission control systems.
Until the recent run-up in pricing, sources were satisfied to calculate the estimated price of a hypothetical deal out of China by working back freight and handling from India, based on the last tender price. Another method was to take reports of ex-factory prices and add transportation costs to the ports.
In the former method, prices were pegged in the upper-$570s/mt FOB. Using the latter format, however, the price was closer to $750/mt FOB. One trader said the movement in the urea market since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has made these calculations meaningless.
The Arab Gulf is now looking at prices in the $900s/mt FOB, as is Indonesia. Egypt has broken $1,000/mt FOB. Unfortunately, sources said there have been no deals to calculate an equivalent price from China that makes sense in this market.
Traders are looking forward to the next India tender. One source said at least global market players will be involved, and any calculation of the China-equivalent price will be agreed to by most in the business. There are rising expectations that India will call another tender by the end of this month, with awards to be issued in early April.
Sources are now expecting the self-imposed restrictions on urea exports to extend into May, and possibly June. The Chinese government had earlier announced that once the export restrictions expired in April, it wanted to build reserves of at least 1 million mt for a special summer program. This new program could continue to restrict global access to Chinese urea for some time.
Indonesia:
Pupuk Indonesia closed a snap tender on March 8 for 30,000-45,000 mt of granular urea and 20,000-45,000 mt of prilled urea. Awards were issued on March 9 at $938/mt FOB for granular and $929/mt FOB for prilled.
Sources said if past practices hold true, Liven may get more granular urea than advertised, with the same going for Oracle and prilled urea.
| Bidding Company | Granular US$/mt FOB | Prilled US$/mt FOB |
| Liven | 938.00 | 788.00 |
| Oracle | 929.00 | 929.00 |
| Synergy | 850.00 | 850.00 |
| Samsung | 827.00 | 766.00 |
| Ameropa | 821.00 | — |
| Koch | 800.50 | — |
| Dreymoor | 800.00 | — |
| Heartychem | 750.00 | 725.00 |
| Swiss Singapore | 722.00 | 722.00 |
India:
Industry watchers speculate that the next Indian urea tender will come in the last week of March. Sources said the call at that time will allow for the awards and purchases to all be made in the next fiscal year, which begins April 1.
Sources were unsure how the Indian government will handle the record-high prices for urea around the world. In its budget plan for the next fiscal year, the Indian government reduced the amount of money available for urea subsidies. At the time the budget was drafted, prices were at near-record highs, but showing signs of falling.
The last tender, which closed on Feb. 7, showed a $300/mt drop from the December 2021 tender. All indicators were for lower prices until natural gas prices skyrocketed and Russia invaded Ukraine.
Middle East:
Arab Gulf and Egyptian producers secured significantly higher prices in deals this week. Sources said sales out of the Arab Gulf started the week at $860/mt FOB and closed the week at $910/mt FOB. Reportedly, new orders are under discussion at $950/mt FOB and up.
The week in Egypt started with a sale of $1,030/mt FOB from KIMA. It was soon followed by MOPCO selling 5,000 mt at $1,050/mt FOB for April loading, with reports that additional small deals were done at higher levels. The week ended with MOPCO selling another 10,000 mt to a trader for $1,100/mt FOB.
The paper market for the Arab Gulf was reported at $865/mt FOB for March and $975/mt FOB for April. The Egyptian paper market showed prices at $955/mt FOB for March and $1,057/mt FOB for April.
Getting more Iranian urea on the open market will not happen as fast as many in the industry would like. Sources said delays in coming to an accord on nuclear research with the U.S. are preventing the lifting of sanctions on doing business with Iran.
January urea exports from Iran were reported at 285,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor. This is about 20 percent down from the 359,000 mt exported in January 2021. Turkey took 49 percent of Iran’s exports in January at 140,000 mt. Oman took another 83,000 mt, and South Africa was the third largest buyer with 60,000 mt.
Black Sea:
Sources said some Russian ports are officially operating, but seem to be focusing on clearing out grain vessels that were trapped soon after Russia invaded Ukraine. The Ukrainian ports remain closed and under siege.
Sources said the movement of vessels in the area seems to be dedicated to getting the ships out of the Black Sea. Insurance rates for vessels seeking entry to the Black Sea have jumped dramatically because of the war risk premiums being tacked on. There are reports that some insurance companies are refusing to cover any ships looking to enter the area.
Because of the closed ports, the lack of any urea business denied industry players any opportunities to test pricing.
Urea imports into Turkey for January were reported at 172,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor. This amount is down about 30 percent from January 2021 imports of 246,000 mt. Oman supplied 46 percent of the imports with 78,000 mt. Iran was second with 46,000 mt, representing 27 percent of Turkey’s urea imports.
Nepal:
The country will close a tender on March 22 for 30,000 mt of bagged urea. Normally the tenders are serviced with Chinese product. However, with China out of the market, Nepal will have to look elsewhere.
At times, some product also came from Iran after being bagged in India. Sources now say India has become more nervous about handling Iranian urea and may not continue its past practices.
Nigeria:
Sources reported a major shutdown in Nigerian urea production. An Indorama urea and ammonia production line went down, leaving only one line to operate at reduced capacity. Sources said the apparent reason for the shutdown was sabotage to the gas line feeding into the plant.
The shutdown and reduced production are expected to last about four weeks.
Brazil:
The Ukraine invasion and lack of Chinese product on the market have combined to make buyers anxious and willing to pay more for their needs. Sources said the urea price at the ports came in this week at $850-$950/mt CFR, with an emphasis on the upper end of the range.
Local distributors are nervous about getting replacement tons because of sanctions against Russia and Belarus. This nervousness is causing them to require buyers to take their tons immediately instead of buying forward. The pressure from a potential short global market has moved the Rondonopolis price up to $1,015/mt FOB ex-warehouse.
Urea imports for the first two months of the year were reported at 1.1 million mt by Trade Data Monitor. This is a drop of about 9 percent from the same period last year, when Brazil imported 1.3 million mt. The main suppliers so far this year have been Oman with 264,000 mt and Nigeria with 217,000 mt.
February 2022 imports were reported at 738,000 mt, up slightly from the 718,000 mt imported in February 2021. Sources of urea in February were spread out among five major supplying countries, with Oman topping the list at 202,000 mt and Russia at the bottom with 81,000 mt.