U.S. Gulf:
NOLA granular barges retreated a bit early in the week before heading back toward the $900/st FOB mark. Trades for the week were reported at $865-$905/st FOB, up from the week-ago $770-$900/st FOB.
The last done prill business continued to be called $860/st FOB.
U.S. Imports:
January urea imports were off 4.7 percent, to 420,468 st from 441,111 st in the prior year. Imports firmed 78.7 percent for July-January, however, to 3.18 million st from the year-ago 1.78 million st.
Imports from Qatar totaled 591,411 st for July-January, 8.4 percent below the year-ago 645,347 st. Algeria added 461,688, compared to zero tons sold into the U.S. one year earlier. Saudi Arabia’s 458,748 st total amounted to a 27.5 percent year-over-year increase against 359,758 st. Russia exported 454,583 st to the U.S. for the period, a 116.1 percent jump from 210,323 st in the prior-year period.
U.S. Exports:
Urea exports for July-January were down 59.2 percent, to 238,085 st from 583,002 st. Exports were reported at 85,816 st for January, however, up 395.8 percent from 17,308 st in the prior year.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Urea pricing at Cincinnati, Ohio, reportedly jumped from a low of $900-$920/st FOB early in the week to a high of $960-$980/st FOB by March 17, at least from some suppliers. Indiana sources reported river terminal pricing in the $900-$930/st FOB range at midweek.
In the Great Lakes region, new urea pricing FOB Toledo, Ohio, was reported as high as $975-$1,050/st, depending on time of shipment.
Western Cornbelt:
The urea market remained at $910-$950/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location and time of the week, with both the high and low ends of the range reported at St. Louis, Mo., during the course of the week. Iowa sources pegged the market firmly at the $950/st FOB level at midweek.
Southern Plains:
Urea prices were reported in a broad range at $910-$955/st FOB Catoosa/Inola, Okla., depending on supplier and time of the week. The market FOB Houston, Texas, was quoted at a firm $940/st FOB as the week began.
South Central:
Urea prices in the South Central region at mid-month were quoted at $910-$920/st FOB Memphis, Tenn., $920/st FOB Convent, La., and up to $940-$945/st FOB river terminals in Arkansas, up some $20/st from last week at the high end of the range and a full $300/st above pricing levels in late February.
Southeast:
Urea prices were up significantly in the Southeast. Sources quoted the market firmly in the $940-$970/st range FOB port terminals, with the low at Savannah, Ga., and the high reported at Charleston, S.C., Wilmington, N.C., and Chesapeake, Va. Those prices were up roughly $270/st from late February, with reports of some suppliers out of product at midweek.
India:
Sources said even with urea prices on a steady upward trend, India will need to call a tender soon. Many expect to see the call come within two weeks.
International traders said the Indian government seems resigned to paying record prices. Sources noted that if an outlier comes in with a decidedly lower price, few others may be able to meet that level. Availability of product is the big issue. With China voluntarily out of the global market and Black Sea ports closed or otherwise inaccessible because of the war in Ukraine, sources said traders will have few places to go to offer tons into the tender.
Talk is already circulating in the industry that the tender prices will need to be above $1,000/mt CFR to fit into the current market. The Arab Gulf price has hit $1,000/mt FOB, and Indonesian suppliers are talking similar levels. Higher freight rates are also expected because of high fuel costs. All in all, said sources, the Indian treasury is going to take a hit in the next tender.
Even before the new fiscal year takes effect on April 1, the Indian government announced it was increasing the amount of money available for fertilizer subsidies in the new budget. Bloomberg reported the new budget will be 1.5 trillion rupees (US$20 million) from the budgeted 1.05 trillion rupees.
January 2022 imports of 966,000 mt were all from the December 23, 2021, tender that had a shipping deadline of Jan. 22. Trade Data Monitor reported that these shipments were about 3 percent lower than the 997,000 mt imported in January 2021. The urea came from major and minor producing countries, with the exception of China, which voluntarily withdrew from the global urea market.
Pakistan:
The government allowed Fauji Fertilizers to raise the price of urea by $9/mt, to $211/mt CFR. Sources said the price increase was inevitable because of higher natural gas prices.
Black Sea:
All Ukrainian ports are closed because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The invasion prompted insurance companies to declare the whole Black Sea a “war zone,” with insurance rates jacked up accordingly.
With the lack of any business concluded in the area, sources said it was impossible to test for prices or even availability of product.
Russian exports of urea for January 2022 were reported at 628,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor. The exports were completed before the February invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions imposed on Russian material by the U.S. and the European Union. January 2021 exports were reported at 442,000 mt.
Indonesia:
Urea prices remained steady as Kaltim prepares to ship the tons sold last week at $938/mt FOB. Sources said producers will be looking for a price closer to $1,000/mt in the next selling tender.
South Korea:
Urea imports for January-February 2022 were reported at 241,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor. This amount is 30 percent higher than the same period in 2021. The main suppliers were Qatar with 30,000 mt, China with 21,000 mt, and Indonesia with 13,000 mt.
February 2022 imports of 86,000 mt were markedly down from the 110,000 mt imported in February 2021.
Middle East:
Sources confirmed a rumored second deal last week from Oman at $990-$1,000/mt FOB. The deal moved the urea price up from the $910/mt FOB handled by OQ with Omani material.The paper market for the Arab Gulf is reported at $940/mt FOB for March and $1,025/mt FOB for April.
An Egyptian producer sold a cargo of granular urea at $1,130/mt FOB. No details of the sale were available, but sources said the most likely destination is Europe.Prills from Egypt are pegged at $1,080/mt FOB.The paper market for Egypt is reported at $975/mt FOB for March and $1,135/mt FOB for April.
North African production appears to be running smoothly. Algeria reportedly sold a cargo for Europe at $1,050/mt FOB, which fits in with earlier Egyptian deals.
China:
Sources said for all intents and purposes the Chinese urea export market is non-existent. The prices for the few tons allowed out are a mystery, said traders. The tonnage is usually shipped in containers.
Brazil:
Sources said the landed price of urea in Brazil moved up to $1,000-$1,050/mt CFR.
The rising price of urea and the limited tons available has led the Brazilian government to visit major producing countries looking for deals. Prior to its invasion of Ukraine, Russia had promised Brazil all the fertilizer it needs for the upcoming season. Following the invasion and subsequent sanctions against Russia, however, Brazilian government officials have approached other countries.
Brazilian media reported that the agriculture minister talked with Iranian officials with the hopes of securing a government-to-government deal that would circumvent the U.S. sanctions against Iran.Last year Brazil imported 200,000 mt of urea from Iran under barter-trade arrangements. This amount was down from the 500,000 mt or more imported each year in 2019 and 2020. So far this year, Brazil has brought in a cargo of 50,000 mt from Iran.