US Gulf:
NOLA granular urea prices were reported in the $340-$360/st FOB range, down from the week-ago $340-$392/st FOB. Early-week numbers were put at the higher end of the range at $350-$360/st FOB, with prices hitting the $340/st FOB mark later in the week.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Urea pricing fell to $400-$415/st FOB Cincinnati, Ohio, during the week, well below the prior week’s $460-$470/st FOB offers. The upper end of the Eastern Cornbelt market was pegged at the $420-$425/st FOB level in Illinois on a spot basis.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea dropped to $380-$400/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, down from the prior week’s $400-$450/st range. Sources pegged the St. Louis urea market at $390-$400/st FOB, well below the previous week’s $430-$450/st FOB range, while pricing in the Northern Plains slipped to $415-$430/st FOB St. Paul, Minn., down from $430-$460/st FOB the week before.
Southern Plains:
Urea slipped to $410-$430/st FOB Catoosa/Inola, Okla., with the lower numbers reported as the week progressed. Reference pricing at Houston, Texas, remained as high as $495/st FOB during the week, but sources reported no new business to test that level.
South Central:
Urea prices continued to fall in the South Central region. The market in early February was reported at $410-$425/st FOB, down from $430-$460/st the previous week, with the low confirmed at Memphis, Tenn., and the high at Convent, La.
Southeast:
Urea pricing out of port terminals in the Southeast fell to $460-$470/st FOB during the week, down from $490-$510/st at last report, with the low confirmed at Wilmington, N.C., and the high at Charleston, S.C.
India:
The IPL tender, calling for 600,000 mt to be shipped over a one-year period, closed on Feb. 1. As Green Markets went to press, no data from the tender was available. The tender was an unusual move, but one apparently designed to secure a steady supply of urea at rates lower than seen in the market’s occasional large spot tenders.
The urea industry is still waiting for word that a spot tender will be called. Bets are still being placed on the call to happen in the last half of February.
India’s fiscal-year 2023 national budget indicated a drop in urea subsidies. The total support for urea in the new budget was put at $16 billion, down from the fiscal-year 2022 budget allotment of $18.7 billion. Subsidies for domestically produced urea will be reduced to $12.7 billion from $14.4 billion in the prior period. The amount to support imported urea was pegged at $3.8 billion, down from $4.7 billion in fiscal-year 2022.
Middle East:
Arab producers keep holding to prices in the $420s/mt FOB despite being rejected by all buyers. Sources said the current price for any business to be completed is $400-$420/mt FOB. Buyers point to the paper market quotes of $385-$400/mt FOB for February to bolster their argument.
There have also been rumors of small deals that show a netback to the Arab Gulf of $340/mt FOB, although sources could not confirm the quantities or buyers. Some expressed doubts that such a low price was done so quickly.
The softer market is clear, however. Egypt producer MOPCO reportedly closed a deal at $410/mt FOB for February shipment, representing a drop of about $30/mt from Egypt’s last concluded business.
Urea exports from Iran grew by one-third in 2022, Trade Data Monitor reported. Exports were noted at 5 million mt for the year, up from 3.8 million mt in 2021. Turkey led buyers with 1.97 million mt, followed by 554,000 mt purchased by South Africa.
December exports were 440,000 mt, up 23% from the year-ago 359,000 mt, while July-December exports were put at 2.9 million mt, above 2.2 million mt in second-half 2021.
Thailand:
Trade Data Monitor reported 2022 urea imports at 1.8 million mt, off 21% from 2.2 million mt in 2021. The market’s primary suppliers were Saudi Arabia with 697,000 mt, Malaysia with 414,000 mt, and Qatar with 396,000 mt.
December imports rang in at 47,000 mt, more than double the market’s prior-year 20,000 mt total.
Indonesia:
The industry is still waiting for a selling tender, as expectations of a late-January tender were dashed. Now speculation is settling on the second half of February.
Sources said the delay may be part of an effort to ensure a plentiful supply of urea for the domestic market. National elections will be held later this year, and sources said the government does not want to have farmers concerned about urea supplies just as voters go to the polls.
Urea exports for 2022 totaled 1.8 million mt, Trade Data Monitor reported, off 13% from 2 million mt reported for 2021. Australia was the largest buyer with 373,000 mt, followed by India and the Philippines, taking 368,000 mt and 204,000 mt, respectively.
December exports were 40,000 mt, down from the prior-year 54,000 mt. By December, producers will normally have exhausted their export permits, so the shipment of small cargoes in for the month is not unusual. Tonnage shipped in December typically consists of deals made in October and November.
Turkey:
Imports of urea for 2022 were counted at 2.6 million mt, according to Trade Data Monitor, down slightly from 2.7 million mt imported in 2021. Turkey’s main suppliers were Oman with 1.5 million mt, accounting for 58% of the import market, and Egypt with 309,000 mt, for 12% of the market.
December imports stood at 332,000 mt, up 69% year-over-year from 196,000 mt. Egypt and Oman split the December market, with each sending about 126,000 mt.
Brazil:
Expectations of a softer market were borne out by prices reported at $390-$400/mt CFR. Sources said the downward drift is not yet done, as aggressive buyers are now pushing for tons in the $370s/mt CFR.
Rondonopolis reported priced down to $590/mt FOB ex-warehouse on limited trading.
Bangladesh:
State-owned Chittagong Urea Fertilizer Ltd. (CUFL) is re-commissioning its production facilities in mid-February, nearly three months after production was stopped on Nov. 22 following a fire at the ammonia plant in a reformer pipe (GM Nov. 25, 2022), according to a report by the country’s New Nation.
However, there are doubts whether the plant will actually restart production given ongoing gas shortages. The plant has a rated urea production of 1,200 mt/d and 1,000 mt/d of ammonia.
Southern Europe:
Buying interest for urea remains low and warehouse stocks high. In Turkey, there are reports of recent small sales of Egyptian granular tons in the mid-$440s/mt CFR duty paid.
Black Sea:
Sources now estimate the Black Sea prilled urea price at $315-$380/mt FOB. Availability of Russian urea remains limited, with product coming only from the limited ports on the far-eastern side of the Black Sea.