US Gulf:
The NOLA barge market dipped as low as $300/st FOB on Thursday, putting the range for the week at $300-$340/st FOB, down from the week-ago $340-$360/st FOB.
US Imports:
December urea imports were recorded at 297,812 st, off 11.4% from the year-ago 336,002 st. July-December volumes were 1.63 million st, down 40.9% from 2.76 million st in the prior year.
July-December imports from Qatar totaled 487,810 st. Saudi Arabia added 325,318 st, followed by 284,748 st from Oman. Russia sent 215,211 st.
US Exports:
Urea exports for December firmed 46.7% year-over-year, to 96,800 st from 66,003 st. July-December shipments moved 466.0% higher, to 866,033 st from 153,008 st in 2021.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Urea remained under pressure in the Eastern Cornbelt. Sources pegged the market at $380-$415/st FOB, below last week’s $400-$425/st range, with the low confirmed out of Illinois River terminals. The Cincinnati, Ohio, urea market was quoted at $395-$415/st FOB, down $5/st at the low end of the range.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea dropped to $370-$400/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the St. Louis, Mo., market quoted at the $370-$380/st FOB level, down from the prior week’s $390-$400/st FOB range.
In the Northern Plains, new urea offers were pegged at $390-$400/st FOB St. Paul, Minn., and $480-$520/st DEL in North Dakota, while pricing in the Southern Plains dropped to $385-$395/st FOB Catoosa/Inola, Okla.
California:
Urea pricing in California was a bit more resilient at $660-$700/st FOB Stockton, with rail-DEL offers quoted at the $585/st level in Northern California for March shipment.
Pacific Northwest:
Urea pricing dropped to $540/st FOB Rivergate, Ore., and $545/st FOB Aurora, Ore., down from the previous $575-$580/st FOB range. Delivered urea slipped to a low of $500/st in Montana.
Western Canada:
Urea pricing in Western Canada dropped to C$745-$800/mt DEL for February-March tons, well below the last confirmed C$840-$900/mt DEL range. The latest warehouse prices in the region were pegged in a broad C$750-$820/mt FOB range in early February.
India:
The IPL contract tender for urea closed with only one producer making an offer. Sources said that IPL is expected to scrap the tender.
The tender called for a producer to supply monthly cargoes of urea for one year, for a total of 660,000 mt. Sources said the tender made no sense after prices started to fall.
A traditional spot tender will most likely be called by the end of February. Sources said the longer that India remains out of the urea market, the softer the market will become. The whole market is looking to India to stem the current decline in pricing, traders said.
Even with the incentive for lower prices, sources said that India is in no rush to call a tender. Recent local news reports have carried statements by government officials that the current urea reserves on hand are already enough to finish off the current season, and allow for a good start on the next.
Indonesia:
Exports from Indonesia will most likely be held off until late March or early April, as the government is reportedly unready to issue the necessary export licenses. Sources said the government appears to be holding off granting permission to export until it is satisfied the domestic market is fully covered.
Middle East:
The week started with talk of producers willing to discuss prices in the low-$380s/mt FOB, and ended with confirmed deals in the $340s/mt FOB. Sources could not confirm the buyers or locations, but were firm in their understanding that the deals were indeed done.
Iranian exports for January were reported at 194,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor, down31% from the 281,000 mt exported in January 2022. The market’s primary buyers were Turkey with 69,000 mt, accounting for 36% of the exports, followed by Vietnam with 62,000 mt. Iraq received 31,000 mt.
After concluding sales in the first week of February at $410/mt FOB, Egyptian producers have gone quiet. Sources said the softness in the global urea market will most likely be reflected when public sales are once again reported out of Egypt.
China:
Sources said that reserves are building up in China for export. The buildup seems to be in preparation for the Indian urea tender expected in February.
The offer price was reported at $380-$405/mt FOB. Traders have also suggested the eventual price out of China could drop to the $340s/mt FOB, noting that in recent years the price from China and the Arab Gulf are often just a few dollars apart.
Brazil:
The week opened with international traders calling the Brazilian urea market in the $360s/mt CFR, and finished with deals at $350-$360/mt CFR. By the end of the week, sources were saying $340/mt CFR was likely soon. Product from Venezuela and other sanctioned states is already being sold in the $320s/mt CFR, sources said.
Rondonopolis sources reported softer prices on limited buying interest, calling the market $585-$590/mt FOB ex-warehouse for prompt shipment.
Trade Data Monitor reported January urea imports at 679,000 mt, a 66% increase from the prior-year 408,000 mt. Oman led the market with 197,000 mt, followed by Nigeria with 116,000 mt.
Ethiopia:
Imports for January totaled 50,000 mt, Trade Data Monitor reported,with the total coming from Egypt. First-quarter urea deliveries to Ethiopia are typically erratic. January 2022 imports were reported at 3 mt, compared to 141,000 mt imported in January 2021.
Black Sea:
The price range for prilled urea tightened to $335-$350/mt FOB, with a downward move on the average of the prices.