US Gulf:
NOLA barge trades were reported at $355-$390/st early in the week, largely in line with the week-ago $350-$387/st FOB. By late Thursday afternoon, however, a trade was reported as low as $338/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Strong demand and limited supply pushed urea prices higher in the Eastern Cornbelt. The market strengthened to $425-$450/st FOB in the region, up from last week’s $420-$430/st range, with the low confirmed out of river terminals in Illinois. The Cincinnati, Ohio, market jumped to $445-$450/st FOB during the week, above the prior week’s $420-$425/st FOB.
Western Cornbelt:
The fast fieldwork pace stretched supplies of urea in the Western Cornbelt, pushing prices higher as the week progressed.
Urea was quoted at $410-$430/st FOB in the region, up from last week’s $395-$425/st FOB, with the St. Louis, Mo., market reported at $410-$425/st FOB. Inventories were reportedly tapped out at Port Neal, Iowa, at midweek, where the last price was quoted at the $425/st FOB level.
In the Southern Plains, urea offers at Catoosa/Inola, Okla., firmed to $425-$445/st FOB, up from $415-$435/st FOB last week.
Northern Plains:
Urea jumped to $430-$435/st FOB St. Paul, Minn., up from last week’s $395-$430/st range, with the latest offers at Carrington, N.D., reported at the $460/st FOB level.
Delivered urea pricing ranged broadly in North Dakota, from a low of $455-$480/st for tons from Canada to a high of $500/st DEL for US-produced urea. Delivered tons in Montana reportedly firmed to the $520/st level for domestic product.
Northeast:
Urea strengthened to $440/st FOB Fairless Hills, Pa., $465/st FOB East Liverpool, Ohio, and $470/st FOB Baltimore, Md., up from last week’s $420-$440/st FOB and the $395-$420/st FOB range reported in late March and early April.
Eastern Canada:
Urea prices remained under pressure in Eastern Canada. The market slipped to a broad C$680-$875/mt FOB range in late April, depending on location and supplier, below the previous low of C$700/mt.
India:
Sources said traders are still scouring the market to nail down the last set of tons awarded in the Indian Potash Ltd. (IPL) tender. The global market remains awash with extra urea, said one trader, and with a shipping deadline of June 1, it should not be difficult to find the necessary tons. Prices are beginning to move up, however, cutting into the profit margins of material sold at $330-$335/mt CFR.
There are still expectations that another tender will be called during the last week of May. Sources said the call could come earlier if all the tons awarded in the previous tender have vessels nominated.
Black Sea:
The price out of the Black Sea has moved up to $300-$305/mt FOB. This is in line with other price movements in the urea market.
Interfax reported the Russian government is ready to issue new export quotas for urea. According to the report, Urea exports will be limited to 6 million mt for the June 1-Nov. 30 period.
Exports at that level should not impact the global market. While Russia has limited the release of its export numbers, data released by Trade Data Monitor showed worldwide imports of Russian urea – as reported by countries receiving Russian material – totaling 6.5 million mt in 2021.
While a full accounting of 2022 Russian urea imports is not yet available, 6.6 million mt have so far been recorded for the year. Brazil was Russia’s largest buyer with 1.1 million mt, followed by India with 843,000 mt. The US took 734,000 mt.
Indonesia:
Pupuk closed a tender for prilled urea on April 18. The final award for the 5,000-10,000 mt tender was reportedly issued to Ameropa for a price in the mid-$330s/mt FOB, a premium to $311/mt FOB paid for granular earlier in April.
Sources described the lack of Chinese prilled urea in the regional market as helping to push Indonesian prills to a higher price than granular tons. Sources said Pupuk is now sold out of both prilled and granular urea through mid-May.
Middle East:
Reports of sales during the week moved prices up to $330/mt FOB. Oman and Saudi Arabia started out the week selling material in the mid-$320s/mt FOB, sources said. By the week’s end, Fertiglobe sold UAE urea at $330/mt FOB. Sources could name neither the buyers nor destinations of the cargoes.
The sales eased pressure on what sources had called growing pressure on warehouse storage facilities in the Arab Gulf, even though the deals did not fully zero out the reserves.
Higher prices in the Arab Gulf came from sources calculating prices back from NOLA. Expectations now have the price remaining firm – or growing stronger – for at least another 30-40 days.
Iranian urea exports were reported at 633,000 mt for January-March, according to Trade Data Monitor, off25% from the prior-year 847,000 mt. Sources said that both reduced production and efforts to ensure strong supplies for the domestic market caused a pullback in the amount of urea offered on the global market.
March exports were pegged at 192,000 mt, less than half of the year-ago 418,000 mt. The main buyers were Turkey, taking 80,000 mt, followed by Thailand with 32,000 mt.
Egypt:
MOPCO sold 30,000 mt of granular urea late last week at $345/mt FOB, moving up the price from deals done a few days earlier. The trend continued this week with a sale of 5,000 mt, priced at $350/mt FOB.
Sources speculated that the larger cargo will be sent to a buyer in Latin America, while the smaller lot will go to Europe.
China:
The urea market is waiting to see what changes – if any – that Beijing will make in its export provisions for urea. An announcement is expected on May 1.
Uncertainty about the situation has prices in a state of flux. Early reports of small deals being done at $350/mt FOB for regional buyers in Southeast Asia were quickly trumped by reports that prices on larger cargoes remained in the $370s/mt FOB.
Regional buyers looking to take product immediately may have pushed the smaller sales through quickly, sources speculated. Sellers were unsure what the May 1 announcement would mean for their ability to sell prompt tons and got rid of what they could, when they could. Buyers, on the other hand, got urea at prices closer to the global market price instead of the much higher price dictated by the Chinese domestic market.
South Korea:
Urea imports totaled 267,000 mt for January-March, Trade Data Monitor reported, an 18% fall from the year-ago 327,000 mt.
March imports were tagged at 112,000 mt, up from 85,000 mt received in March 2022. China and Vietnam each supplied about 33,000 mt, while Saudi Arabia added another 27,000 mt.
Brazil:
Sources said that efforts to push the price to $365/mt CFR were attempted and failed, with deals settling at $340-$350/mt CFR. The move came as the global markets reacted to stronger prices out of the US and Egypt.
The Rondonopolis price was reported at $450-$465/mt FOB ex-warehouse, reflecting an upward shift from the low end of the previous range. Few deals were done due to limited seasonal demand, sources said. The strength in pricing is not expected to last long.
Poland:
Grupa Azoty said its nitrogen fertilizer production fell by 35% in March, to 211,000 mt from the year-ago 325,000 mt.