US Gulf:
Prompt urea barges continued to garner a significant premium at $440-$450/st FOB versus those for full-month May. The market for full-May was reported at $355/st FOB early in the week, but fell to $320-$325/st FOB by late Thursday.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Tight supply continued to push urea prices higher in the region in early May, despite some downward pressure on the NOLA barge market. Urea moved to $495-$520/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, up from last week’s $480-$500/st FOB range, with the Cincinnati, Ohio, market quoted at $495-$505/st FOB during the week.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea prices strengthened again, firming to $480-$520/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, up another $20/st from last week, with the low confirmed at St. Louis, Mo. The Catoosa/Inola, Okla., urea market was reported at $495-$515/st FOB for the week, with St. Paul, Minn., pricing confirmed in a broad range at $500-$530/st FOB.
California:
Urea slipped to $560-$600/st FOB Stockton, down from the prior low of $585/st FOB, with reports of bagged urea listed at $660/st FOB Stockton. The last rail-DEL pricing in Northern California fell in the $540-$585/st range. “Urea is a slow mover this time of year, so there’s not much demand for that,” said one contact.
Added another California source: “The California market has had a premium to NOLA pricing, so since they didn’t take the dip down, they aren’t seeing the pop up.”
Pacific Northwest:
Urea was firming in the Pacific Northwest, fueled by the April spike in NOLA prices. The market was quoted at $520/st FOB Rivergate, Ore., and $525/st FOB Aurora, Ore., up from the previous $460-$465/st FOB range, with some sources expecting another increase soon. Delivered urea was quoted firmly in the $525-$535/st range in Montana.
Western Canada:
Urea pricing in Western Canada firmed to C$665-$730/mt FOB and C$720-$765/mt DEL, up from the previous C$630-$650/mt FOB and C$670-$700/mt DEL ranges.
India:
Sources said that some traders are still looking for urea to cover awards from the March Indian Potash Ltd. (IPL) tender. There are reportedly at least five vessels that still need to be nominated to fulfil the awards.
With urea prices rising, some have said that those still looking for product will find the $330-$335/mt CFR tender price to be too low for the current market. China, the Arab Gulf, and Indonesia are now all in the $330s/mt FOB and higher.
With about 225,000 mt still to be booked and loaded by the end of the month, sources said that no new tender call is expected until the last week of May, at the earliest. Even with more domestic production coming online, traders said India will have to call another tender to ensure a plentiful supply of urea.
Black Sea:
The price for prilled urea from the area remained steady at $300-$305/mt FOB.
Turkish imports of urea picked up in January-March. Imports were counted at 885,000 mt, according to Trade Data Monitor, above the prior-year 529,000 mt. March imports were 329,000 mt, a 74% year-over-year increase from 190,000 mt. Egypt supplied 140,000 mt for the month, while Oman sent 105,000 mt.
Turkey has stepped up its urea exports as well. The increase came after the February 2022 start of the Ukraine war, which hampered the flow of fertilizer and grain from both Russia and Ukraine. Exports from Turkey were reported at 186,000 mt in 2022, up from 38,000 mt in 2021 and 63,000 mt in 2020.
January-March 2023 exports totaled 105,000 mt of, compared to 22,000 mt in the first quarter of 2022.
Turkey was instrumental in negotiating an agreement that would allow for fertilizer and grain products to be shipped through the war zone in the Black Sea. Part of the deal allowed for Russian product to enter Turkey before being shipped onward. This transfer of urea within Turkish ports is seen as one reason for the increase in Turkey’s urea exports.
Indonesia:
Sources said the blip in prices that occurred late in April, when Petronas bought a cargo from Pupuk, is now gone. The sale temporarily boosted the regional price into the upper-$340s/mt FOB, although one trader said the move looked more like two producers agreeing to a higher price to jumpstart a price rally in Southeast Asia.
Following the producer-to-producer deal, sources said pricing discussions reverted to the low-$330s/mt FOB. A selling tender closed May 5 for 30,000 mt of granular urea. Reports are the high bids were in the $330s/mt FOB. Some other bids came in the upper $320s/mt FOB. An award is expected soon. Shipment of product is set for second-half May.
Thailand:
Urea imports firmed 57% in January-March, Trade Data Monitor reported, lifting to 392,000 mtfrom the year-ago 249,000 mt. March imports stood at 197,000 mt, a 43% increase from 137,500 mt bought in March 2022. Saudi Arabia led suppliers with 99,000 mt, followed by Malaysia with 59,000 mt.
Saudi Arabia’s large share of the March market was of no surprise. SABIC has long provided material to Thai buyers at favorable rates to ensure the Saudi company maintains a healthy share of the local market.
Middle East:
The area has slowly returned from the Eid celebrations, with no new spot deals reported. Sources said that limited interest in buying or selling during the week has left prices steady at $330-$332/mt FOB.
Egyptian producers took advantage of European buyers looking for top-off tons for the spring season. Kima settled a 3,000 mt sale at $366/mt FOB at the close of last week, while MOPCO slipped in with another 3,000 mt at $367/mt FOB as the current week opened. Both cargoes were slated for shipment in the first half of May.
Sources said that while business was limited due to Eid, the market was also slowed by the country’s Labor Day holiday, celebrated on May 1
China:
Sources described pricing indications as all over the map. Fudao reportedly sold a cargo of granular urea at $335-$338/mt FOB. At the same time, a number of prilled deals were reportedly under discussion at a $10/mt discount to granular. Even as confirmation of the Fudao business arrived, other producers claimed their prices to be firm in the low-$350s/mt FOB. However, no deals could be confirmed at that level
The Fudao price put Chinese urea back in line with the Arab Gulf price in the $330s/mt FOB. Prior to the imposition of export controls by China, the Arab Gulf and Chinese markets were usually priced within a few dollars of each other. The move to limit exports from China boosted the global price for Chinese product, however, while lowering it for the domestic market.
Rumors that Beijing is planning to amend its export policy continued to abound. While most of the talk has been about phosphates, sources said that urea could be impacted as well. The change was supposed to have taken effect May 1. However, with China essentially closed for Labor Day celebrations on May 1-3, sources reported seeing no announcements regarding the proposed changes during the week.
Brazil:
Prices softened to $340-$345/mt CFR. Sources said the shift represented a minor adjustment, rather than an indicator of a major change in the market.
Urea from sanctioned countries such as Venezuela and Iran has been putting downward pressure on prices. Sources said that offers for this product have been quoted as low as the upper-$320s/mt CFR, but with no deals finalized at that level.
The Rondonopolis price was reported up at $460-$500/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Seasonal demand is fueling a subtle-but-steady upward push on prices. Offers were reported at $550-$570/mt FOB, but without any agreements.
Ethiopia:
Urea imports firmed to 150,000 mt for January-April, according to Trade Data Monitor,a jump from the prior-year 56,000 mt. April imports registered at 24 mt – all from Qatar – down from 55,000 mt imported in April 2022.
Ethiopia usually makes larger purchases in May and June of each year, with occasional buying spurts in January.