US Gulf:
Eastern Cornbelt:
Urea was unchanged at $450-$470/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location, with the low confirmed in Illinois. The Cincinnati, Ohio, market was quoted in the $465-$470/st FOB range at mid-month.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea remained at $450-$470/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at St. Louis, Mo., and Port Neal, Iowa. Some terminals were reportedly out of product in mid-October.
Southern Plains:
Urea pricing in the Southern Plains slipped to $445-$465/st FOB, down from the previous $475-$485/st FOB range, with the low confirmed at Enid, Okla., and the high at Catoosa/Inola, Okla. Sources pegged the Houston, Texas, market at the $460/st FOB level during the week, give or take.
South Central:
The urea market dropped to $420-$470/st FOB in the South Central region, with the low confirmed at Convent, La., and the high at Little Rock, Ark. The Memphis, Tenn., market was reported at the $460/st FOB level, while Kentucky sources quoted the latest offers out of Ohio River terminals in the $440-$460/st FOB range.
Southeast:
Urea prices in the Southeast were down slightly at $450/st FOB port terminals, below the previous $460-$465/st FOB range.
India:
Sources were united in the view that India will need to buy at least 3 million mt of urea by February 2024. This makes the Indian Potash Ltd. (IPL) tender, set to close on Oct. 20, vital to the country’s supply train.
Pricing expectations for the tender are now focused on $410-$435/mt CFR, with a projected take of 1.5 million mt. Traders remain concerned that a seller could offer one outlier cargo at a price far below the rest of the offers, however, as happened in the Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers Ltd. (RCF) tender.
The tender’s current pricing expectations match price ideas out of the Arab Gulf and Indonesia. Should an offer come in much lower, however, other suppliers may be unable to match the price, leaving India desperately short of the urea it needs for the rest of the year.
Traders previously reported greater-than-expected demand for urea in August. Combined with the limited tonnage booked in the RCF September tender, sources believe a severe urea shortage could occur unless the upcoming IPL tender secures at least 1.5 million mt and is quickly followed with another tender.
Black Sea:
Prilled urea out of the Black Sea remained steady at $360/mt FOB, following the trend in other major markets.
Southeast Asia:
The Indonesian urea price remains at $406/mt FOB, based on the last auction held by Pupuk in September. While sources previously said there would be no new sales for the remainder of the year, one more major export offer is now expected.
The resignation of the Indonesian agricultural minister late last week could be one possible hitch, however. The resignation came after the minister was named in a far-reaching corruption probe. The Ministry of Agriculture sets the urea export quota and authorizes the sale of product.
Throughout September, sources reported corruption investigators combing through Pupuk’s files, delaying auction calls and leading some international traders to voice concerns about purchasing opportunities. It is unclear, for now, how the minister’s resignation and the ongoing investigation will affect remaining sales for the year.
Even as concerns that more tons may not be available out of Indonesia, neighboring countries appear to be in a buying mood. Sources said stronger rice prices and good rains are encouraging farmers to step up their buying.
Middle East:
No new urea spot deals were reported, leaving the price at $420/mt FOB. Sources said the area has gone quiet as plans are laid for offers into the IPL tender.
Sources reported discussions for November and December shipment at $400/mt FOB, but nothing has been concluded. Deals at this level would see urea delivered to India at the lowest end of the estimated price for the IPL tender. The market’s recent $420/mt FOB price would put the landed price into India at the higher end of estimates.
Egyptian producers have also gone quiet following recent deals into Ethiopia and smaller lots into Europe. The price remains at $440/mt FOB.
Iranian urea exports stood at 3.7 million mt in January-September, according to Trade Data Monitor, unchanged from one year earlier. Third-quarter exports were 1.6 million mt, up 7% from the 1.5 million shipped in July-September 2022. September shipments were 408,000 mt, a 30% drop from 584,000 mt in September 2022.
China:
Traders put the current export-equivalent price for granular urea at $410/mt FOB. As permission to export granular product is severely limited, international traders have looked at the ex-plant price to estimate the export price. Prilled urea remained at the $385-$390/mt FOB level, set by the last Indian tender.
There are no expectations that Chinese product will play a role in the upcoming Indian tender, sources said. Prilled urea is being authorized for export in small lots of 6,000-12,000 mt, a size that cannot compete in the Indian market.
Brazil:
Brazil urea prices were quoted at $410-$420/mt CFR, falling from $420-$425/mt CFR at last report. Lower prices were rumored but unconfirmed on Oct. 12.
The urea market in Rondonopolis followed imports lower. Sellers have ample availability for October but are awaiting the results of the India tender, resulting in $525-$550/mt FOB ex-warehouse offers. Few transactions were reported concluding, however, as farmers remain hesitant due to continued weakness in the corn market.
January-September Brazil urea imports softened 7% year-over-year, Trade Data Monitor reported, to 4.8 million mt from 5.1 million mt. About three-quarters of the imports came from five countries – Oman, Qatar, Russia, Nigeria, and Algeria.
September imports were noted at 818,000 mt, a 17% increase from the 700,000 mt received in September 2022. Third-quarter imports totaled 1.9 million mt, down slightly from the 2 million mt logged in July-September 2022.
Poland:
Grupa Azoty produced an estimated 94,000 mt of urea in September, the company reported, up from 86,000 mt in August.