US Gulf:
The NOLA urea market continued to strengthen during the week. New business was reported at $345-$348/st FOB for confirmed January trades, $348-$355/st FOB for February, and $350-$355/st FOB for March, up from last week’s $337-$345/st FOB range for January-February.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Sources reported firming prices for urea in the Eastern Cornbelt, fueled by strengthening NOLA barge values. The market was quoted at $390-$410/st FOB in the region, depending on location, up another $5-$10/st from last week and a full $35/st higher than regional prices at the beginning of the year. The Cincinnati, Ohio, market was pegged at $390-$400/st FOB during the week.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea pricing continued to edge higher in the region. The market was reported $385-$410/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with both the high and low confirmed in St. Louis, Mo., as the week progressed.
Southern Plains:
Urea prices were ramping up quickly in the Southern Plains. The regional market was quoted at $400-$420/st FOB as the week progressed, up sharply from the previous $375-$385/st FOB range, with the Catoosa/Inola, Okla., price pegged at $410-$415/st FOB. Some speculated that prices at the port could be even higher by the end of the week.
South Central:
Urea firmed to $385-$405/st FOB in the South Central region, up from the prior week’s $380-$390/st FOB range, with the low confirmed at Convent, La., and the high at Little Rock, Ark. The Memphis, Tenn., market was pegged at $395-$400/st FOB during the week, while Kentucky sources noted Ohio River terminal offers in the $390-$395/st FOB range.
Southeast:
Sources reported firming prices for urea in the Southeast. Port terminal pricing was quoted at $390-$410/st FOB, depending on location and time of the week, well above the prior $370-$380/st FOB range.
India:
Talk of a new urea tender increased this week. More sources speculated that the next tender could be called around mid-February.
The growing interest in a mid-February tender came as rumors circulated that China might be willing to release some urea for export in March. Sources speculated that Indian buyers would want to get into the market ahead of other major buyers who will most likely reenter the market in early March, as a demand increase in the current tight market could lead to dramatically higher prices, said one trader.
For now, there may be delays in shipping some of the tonnage awarded in the Jan. 4 National Fertilizers Ltd. (NFL) tender. Much of the Russian material awarded in the tender has reportedly not yet been nominated to vessels. Sources said the danger of moving from the Black Sea to India has reduced the availability of ships.
More owners are reportedly hesitant to allow their ships to transit the Suez Canal and Red Sea, where Houthi rebels have launched frequent attacks against cargo ships. Vessels booked for the trip are facing much higher insurance rates due to the area’s war-zone conditions. The alternative route through the Mediterranean and around Africa’s southern tip adds more time and cost to the passage to India. Some vessel operators are hesitant to accept this change, making it difficult to ensure timely delivery of the awarded product.
Trade Data Monitor putJanuary-November urea imports at 6.8 million mt, a 19% decline from the 8.4 million mt reported for the first 11 months of 2022. November imports were 831,000 mt, off from 1 million mt in November 2022.
Black Sea:
Prices for prilled urea in the Black Sea remained steady at $280-$310/mt FOB. Granular urea from Azerbaijan was heard indicated in the mid-$390s/mt FOB at midweek, but no transactions were confirmed.
It has become more difficult to secure vessels from the Black Sea to India due to the hostilities in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, sources said. Traders noted that many vessels have still not been nominated for the 400,000 mt of Russian-sourced material booked by NFL in its Jan. 4 tender. Ship owners are reluctant to send their vessels through the Suez Canal to face possible Houthi attacks.
Southeast Asia:
The last of the late-December deals priced at $342/mt FOB have been shipped out of Indonesia, sources said. No new material is expected to be available until after Feb. 14 due to delays in the issuance of new export permits.
The delay reportedly stems from Indonesia’s national elections taking place on Feb. 14. New political managers may be placed in charge of the state-owned urea companies, as well as within the government agencies that regulate offshore urea sales.
Even without the pending elections, sources noted that exports would most likely not be allowed until late February at the earliest. Traditionally, Indonesia limits urea exports in January and February in order to ensure a sufficient supply for the domestic market.
Once sales resume, sources expect pricing in the upper-$370s/mt to mid-$380s/mt FOB, fitting with the recent sale from Brunei to Australia. While many in the industry argued the Brunei Fertilizer Ind. (BFI) transaction was a one-off deal, others said the deal gave the Indonesian sellers a new target to aim for. A deal for over 30,000 tons of granular urea ex-Vietnam was rumored at around $390/mt FOB, but could not be confirmed.
China’s continued absence from the market – along with the shutdown of two Malaysian plants into March for routine maintenance – will help to push up prices. While there is a regional shortage of urea on the production side, sources have been reporting favorable weather conditions in Australia, increasing demand from the continent.
Middle East:
With producers working to cover both sales to India under the NFL tender and long-term contract deals with other customers, no new spot transactions were reported for the week. Realistic price discussions should be centered around the $360-$365/mt FOB mark, sources said, though producers claim that talks for March shipment need to start at $380/mt FOB.
The increased attacks on ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden have made it difficult to secure vessels to transit the area. Many ship owners are reluctant to send their vessels into a war zone, sources said, even with the stepped-up security measures undertaken by the US and other naval powers.
Even Egyptian producers with plants on the Red Sea are reportedly looking at shipping their material to Europe rather than Southeast Asia or Africa. Sources are also predicting that deliveries to India under the January NFL tender will be delayed, as vessels carrying material from the Black Sea may be forced to take the longer route around Africa.
Egyptian pricing continued to climb. On the heels of weekend prices noted at $400/mt FOB, Abu Qir secured a 10,000 mt deal at $405/mt FOB to start the week. By midweek, the price had moved to $410/mt FOB on a 4,000 mt deal from NCIC.
China:
Rumors continue to circulate that Beijing may allow small lots of urea to be shipped in March instead of late April or May. The strength of the rumors seems to rise and fall in line with reports of how many tons are available in domestic warehouses for the local market. The higher the estimates of domestic reserves, the more the industry seems abuzz with reports of early exports being allowed.
Industry sources put the latest estimated price for prilled urea at $324-$327/mt FOB. The estimate is based on reports of prices ex-factory gate, plus transportation to portside facilities. No new exports of urea were reported, however, leaving all price discussions in the realm of speculation.
There have been no reports of granular pricing in China, leaving sources without a benchmark to discuss possible export pricing.
Talks surrounding the early release of export tons – or even domestic availability – are expected to fade by the middle of next week. While China’s Lunar New Year holiday will officially start on Feb. 10, many industries and offices will begin closing on Feb. 8. Employees are not expected to return to work until Feb. 18, at the earliest.
Thailand:
Urea imports to Thailand increased 44% in 2023, Trade Data Monitor reported, to 2.5 million mt from 1.8 million mt in 2022. The primary suppliers were Saudi Arabia with 965,000 mt, Malaysia with 507,000 mt, and Qatar with 41,000 mt.
December imports were 121,000 mt, up significantly from the 47,000 mt received in December 2022, while second-half 2023 imports of 1.3 million mt were largely unchanged from July-December 2022.
Thai buyers have maintained a long and favorable relationship with SABIC. The contract price of urea shipping into Thailand often falls well below the FOB price paid by most other buyers of Saudi product, sources have said.
Ethiopia:
The Ethiopian Agricultural Businesses Corp. (EABC) tender for 365,000 mt of urea closed last week with just a handful of companies offering tonnage for shipment through May.
EABC tenders usually request 1-2 shipments of 50,000-55,000 mt each to be sent monthly as part of the awards. In some cases, either one or three cargoes will be allowed. All of the tender’s offers were FOB-based, with cargoes coming from Nigeria and the Arab Gulf.
| Shipping Period | Offering Company | $/mt FOB | |
| Feb. 15-20 | Promising International | 405.00 | |
| ETG | 437.99 | ||
| Feb. 29-March 4 | Indorama | 385.00 | |
| Montage Oil | 408.00 | ||
| ETG | 472.19 | ||
| March 10-15 | Samsung | 405.00 | |
| ETG | 501.58 | ||
| March 29-April 4 | Samsung | 445.00 | |
| ETG | 511.37 | ||
| April 9-15 | Montage Oil | 400.00 | |
| Samsung | 406.00 | ||
| ETG/Cardex Brown | 521.15 | ||
| April 29-May 4 | ETG/Cardex Brown | 530.90 | |
| May 10-15 | Montage Oil | 404.50 | |
| Samsung | 426.00 | ||
| ETG/Cardex Brown | 535.83 |
Brazil:
Brazil urea prices firmed 4% during the week, to $380-$390/mt CFR from the prior $365-$375/mt CFR range, even as most near-term demand in the inland markets has reportedly been covered by a shift in buyer focus to phosphates and potash. Likewise, sellers have also turned attention to destinations featuring a price premium over Brazil.
Despite the CFR market’s upward movement, Rondonópolis suppliers kept urea prices at $510-$535/mt FOB ex-warehouse for the week, though some companies with large inventories or long positions were reportedly considering offers in the $490-$500/mt FOB range to spur demand.
Corn season demand is expected to remain sluggish while soybean growers focus on harvesting oilseed. Low urea demand is likely to continue even after the harvest period, sources said.
Argentina:
2023 urea imports to Argentina totaled 825,000 mt, falling 7.5% from the year-ago 893,000 mt. Egypt shipped 364,000 mt, Nigeria added 156,000 mt, and Algeria sent 125,000 mt. December imports of 93,000 mt were up sharply from the 22,000 mt received in December 2022.