US Gulf:
NOLA urea was quoted at $345-$350/st FOB for new February-March business this week, tightening from last week’s $345-$355/st FOB range.
February physical barge trades were quoted at $345-$348/st FOB at midweek, but business at the $350/st FOB level was confirmed on Feb. 8 for both February and March tons after earlier trades at the $347/st FOB level for March.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Urea prices edged up to $400-$410/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, above the prior week’s $390/st FOB low. The Cincinnati, Ohio, market was pegged solidly in the $400-$405/st FOB range, up from last week’s $390-$400/st FOB, while most Illinois River terminals were reported at the $405/st FOB level during the week.
In the Great Lakes region, Michigan sources quoted the latest urea offers at $420-$440/st FOB and $445-$455/st DEL, depending on location and time of shipment.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea was reported at $390-$410/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with both the high and low confirmed in St. Louis, Mo., during the week.
California:
Granular pricing in California strengthened to $510/st FOB Stockton, up $20/st from last report, with prilled urea remaining at the $580/st level FOB San Diego. No current rail-DEL urea prices were confirmed in the state in early February.
Pacific Northwest:
Sources reported higher urea prices in the Pacific Northwest in early February. The latest offers jumped to $480/st FOB Rivergate, Ore., $485/st FOB Aurora, Ore., and $515-$540/st DEL, up from the prior $425-$430/st FOB and $458-$490/st DEL ranges, respectively.
Western Canada:
Urea firmed to C$690/mt FOB and C$720-$765/mt DEL in Western Canada, depending on location and time of shipment, up significantly from the previous C$650-$655/mt FOB and C$660-$685/mt DEL ranges.
Black Sea:
Urea prices in the Black Sea moved up in step with the rest of the world. While initial reports hinted at a new $305/mt FOB price for prilled urea, confirmed deals showed the market leaping to $311-$317/mt FOB during the week.
India:
Industry watchers remain convinced that a new urea tender could be called as early as mid-February. There is also a competing view that the tender will be called closer to the end of the month.
Once the tender is called, the focus will be on April deliveries. Under that timeframe, large amounts of Chinese urea are unlikely to be included in the tender, sources said, as traders expect only limited quantities of urea to ship from China in April after the government lifts its export restrictions. That will once again leave the bulk of orders to be sourced from the Arab Gulf, and possibly Russia.
Just how many tons will be taken in the next tender is a big question. India’s proposed FY2024/25 budget, which takes effect April 1, includes reduced funding for fertilizer subsidies, sources noted. So far, the government has not publicly discussed how much of that reduced amount will be used for nitrogen fertilizers – mostly consisting of urea – and how much will be allocated to phosphates.
Several cargoes booked under the previous tender will arrive at Indian ports later than expected. The Indian government told local media that seven fertilizer vessels had been diverted from their original route through the Suez Canal and Red Sea because of attacks by Houthi militants against cargo vessels passing through the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
India purchased about 400,000 mt of Russian urea in the last tender. Sources said the cargoes would most likely come from the Black Sea, from which the quickest route to India runs through the Suez Canal. The seven diverted ships are now taking the longer route around the southern tip of Africa.
The government statement added that the Indian Navy is gearing up to provide an escort service for India-bound vessels. When in place, future shipments might consider using the Suez Canal once again.
Indonesia:
Even with urea plants in Indonesia down for routine maintenance turnarounds, sources reported a growing reserve of product available for export. According to circulating reports, the government is ready to allow Pupuk to export 500,000 mt of urea this year. A selling tender will most likely be called after the country’s Feb. 14 general elections, one trader noted.
Middle East:
Deals were reported concluding in the low-$380s/mt FOB late last week and over the weekend. The urea market’s upward price movement is reflective of a tight market, players said.
With both a new Indian tender rumored to be called by the end of the month and increased demand reported from Australia, sources said producers are beginning discussions at higher levels. The opening price has firmed into the mid-$390s/mt FOB, one trader said, with indications that nothing lower than $390/mt FOB will be considered.
The Egypt market has gone quiet as producers tackle paperwork for the February-March deals signed in the past couple of weeks. Sources said the starting price is now $410/mt FOB, based on the deals concluded last week, with producers looking to push up the price if any new buyers come knocking.
Sales from Iran have picked up. Sources reported deals at $350/mt FOB for granular urea and $360/mt FOB for prilled. Several plants currently undergoing routine maintenance turnarounds are expected back online by the end of the month.
Iran exported 342,000 mt of urea in January, Trade Data Monitor reported, up 76% from the 194,000 mt exported in January 2023. Turkey led buyers with 135,000 mt, Brazil took 71,000 mt, and Iraq bought 41,000 mt.
Mediterranean:
The Mediterranean urea market followed Egypt values higher. In Italy, buyers were reportedly paying $415-$420/mt CFR for imported granular urea, but several players said these levels are bound to climb, given current replacement values on an FOB Egypt basis.
Buyers may get some respite near the end of the month, however, when Yara Ferrara is expected to return online after a two-month shutdown.
No new prices were reported in Spain as farmers remain reluctant to accept further price increases. Similarly, no CFR deals were heard in Turkey after AGT scrapped its Jan. 30 tender and Iranian material continues to put pressure on the market with values heard at sub-$400/mt CFR levels.
China:
While urea exports from China remain nonexistent, industry watchers continue to speculate on where the price might lie should any tons find their way past the government’s customs controls.
Recent $385-$390/mt FOB sales out of Vietnam indicated a China-equivalent price of $370-$380/mt FOB, players said, with some arguing for even higher levels. Sources also pointed to Arab Gulf prices in the low-$380s/mt FOB as a marker for any theoretical Chinese exports.
Rumors continue to circulate that a small amount of urea might be released for export by late March, although there is a growing consensus that exports may not occur until early April. Even then, said one trader, the cargoes are likely to be limited to lots of 10,000 mt or less for regional Southeast Asian buyers. This expectation has also dampened hopes from India that China will be able to offer large quantities of product in its next tender.
Turkey:
Turkey closed its 2023 urea import ledger with 3.2 million mt received, according to Trade Data Monitor, a 22% year-over-year increase from 2.6 million mt. Oman shipped 1.4 million mt, Egypt sent 902,000 mt, and Russia added 322,000 mt. Imports stood at 276,000 mt in December, off 17% from the 332,000 mt reported one year earlier.
Ethiopia:
The Ethiopian Agricultural Businesses Corp. (EABC) has reportedly canceled its Jan. 29 tender for delivery of 365,000 mt through May. After scrapping tenders in the past, EABC has typically called another within weeks.
The first wave of urea purchased through Ethiopia’s final tender of 2023 arrived in January. Trade Data Monitor noted imports of 101,000 mt for the month, more than double the 50,000 mt received in January 2023, with all of the tonnage coming from Egypt.
Brazil:
Urea import prices in Brazil lifted 3.2% for the week in the face of rising international demand. Sellers are finding market conditions to be more attractive outside of Brazil and are prioritizing offers to other markets, sources said. Offers into Brazil were pegged at $390-$405/mt CFR, below the higher offers heard during the week’s Fertilizer Latino Americano (FLA) conference in Miami, Fla., though no trades were reported due to low seasonal demand in Brazil.
While some Rondonópolis suppliers held pricing at $520-$535/mt FOB ex-warehouse, lower offers remain available. Discussions were noted as low as $490-$495/mt FOB, leaving a wide range of $490-$535/mt FOB for prompt corn season demand.
Brazil imported 714,000 mt of urea in January, according to Trade Data Monitor, the country’s strongest January import total in the past five years, and up about 5% from the 680,000 mt received in January 2023.