US Gulf:
NOLA urea prices seesawed during the week, dipping to $330-$345/st FOB on Feb. 20 for March business but reportedly rebounded at midweek to $350-$355 FOB for March and $355-$360/st FOB for February trades. Prices moved up again on Feb. 22, climbing to a weekly high of $365-$366/st FOB for first-half March business.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Urea prices were quoted at $400-$410/st FOB Cincinnati, Ohio, and most Illinois River terminals, depending on supplier and time of shipment. In the Great Lakes region, the latest prompt urea offers were pegged at $430-$450/st FOB, depending on location.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea strengthened slightly to $400-$410/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, up from the prior week’s low of $390/st FOB, with the St. Louis, Mo., market quoted firmly at the $400-$405/st FOB level.
Southern Plains:
Urea prices continued to firm in the Southern Plains as NOLA barge values remained volatile and topdress movement accelerated on wheat. The Catoosa/Inola, Okla., urea market was quoted at a solid $415-$420/st FOB during the week, up from the prior low of $410/st FOB. The high end of the regional market was pegged at the $420-$425/st FOB level in Texas.
South Central:
Urea prices in the South Central region continued to creep up on steadily strengthening NOLA barge values during the week.
The regional terminal market covered a wide range at $385-$415/st FOB, with the low reported at Convent, La., and the high at Little Rock, Ark. The Memphis, Tenn., urea market was pegged at a solid $410-$415/st FOB, up from $395-$400/st FOB at the start of the month.
Southeast:
Urea pricing continued to inch up in the Southeast, with the latest offers confirmed at $405-$410/st FOB Wilmington, N.C., and other port terminals, up from the prior low of $390/st FOB. In the Northeast, new offers FOB Fairless Hills, Pa., were confirmed at the $420/st FOB level for February-March tons.
Black Sea:
Prices moved up for prilled urea in the Black Sea. Sources now put the market at $310-$320/mt FOB.
India:
Urea buyers in India are hoping that Chinese urea will soon be released for export. Sources said the Indian companies took the statement released by Chinese phosphate manufacturers that phosphate exports will begin on March 1 as an indication that restrictions on all Chinese fertilizers will soon be lifted. Unfortunately for India, said one trader, urea might not be permitted for export until late April or May.
Buyers in India are said to be delaying a tender call until circumstances dictate otherwise. The buying houses do not want to pressure the urea market before China begins exporting urea, sources said.
Without China participating in the global market, said one source, the market will be tight on supply at a time when India needs to make a large purchase. The extra demand, combined with limited available supply, would most likely reverse the international urea market’s current softening trend.
Southeast Asia:
Pupuk Holdings closed a tender on Feb. 22 for 25,000-30,000 mt of granular urea shipping from Kaltim during the first half of March. Koch reportedly led seven participating companies with a $385/mt FOB bid, significantly raising the price in the area. Two additional companies submitted bids in the $380s/mt FOB, while the remaining bids were reported in the $340s/mt FOB.
The tender call came more quickly than sources had expected following Indonesia’s Feb. 14 national elections. When the ruling party won reelection with different leaders, however, Pupuk moved ahead with its tender plans.
By itself that tonnage is insignificant, though sources noted that Pupuk has previously sold additional tons in private deals at the tender price shortly following a tender settlement.
The Petronas plant in Bintulu will remain down for an unspecified time. The plant was forced to close shortly after returning from a recent maintenance turnaround. Petronas’ Gurun plant also remains offline for scheduled maintenance. The remaining Petronas facilities and Brunei Fertilizer Ind. (BFI) are fulfilling orders in the region, though no spot material is available through March.
Reports also circulated that Malaysia’s Bintulu tripped after its return from a turnaround last week, while unconfirmed reports of a sale ex-Vietnam at $405/mt underlined once again the tight market.
January urea imports to South Korea firmed 30% year-over-year, Trade Data Monitor reported, lifting to 133,000 mt from 102,000 mt in January 2022.
Vietnam has begun to step up sales to buyers in South Korea, the data showed, sending 38,000 mt for the month. Vietnam is a relative newcomer to the South Korean urea market, and only began shipping product to South Korea in 2021. Qatar, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia accounted for another 27,000-29,000 mt each during the month.
China’s restrictions on urea exports were evident in the import numbers. January receipts from China totaled just 6,000 mt, off from the 22,000 mt and 48,000 mt received in January 2022 and 2023, respectively.
Mediterranean:
Granular urea in the Mediterranean stagnated this week as buyer interest appears to have faded and a lack of liquidity dominated the market. No fresh CFR business was heard in Spain, which is reportedly getting some product cross-border from France, Italy, or Turkey, but traders said prices in nearby Romania are reflecting $430/mt CFR at best.
With no new business reported in the Mediterranean basin, the price was unchanged at $415-$435/mt CFR. The expectation is that any further business will occur at lower levels, especially given waning sentiment for fresh tons ex-Egypt.
Middle East:
Urea deals were reportedly done at $375/mt FOB, followed by new bids falling to $365/mt FOB. While no details were available, the settled price and subsequent bids fit with players’ expectations of where the market is headed.
Egyptian producer MOPCO started the week with a 10,000 mt sale priced at $406/mt FOB, down $4/mt from the last-done business out of Egypt. Soon after the MOPCO deal was made public, NCIC reportedly closed a deal for 3,000 mt at the same price.
China:
A report that DAP will be made available for March export inspired hope in the market that a similar announcement would be forthcoming for urea exports. Sources said it is unlikely that urea will be approved for export before mid-April, however.
An announcement clarifying the export policy is expected on March 1. Rumors indicate that the process of clearing urea for export will begin in mid-April, with the first urea vessels expected to leave port in early May.
The early exports will likely be comprised of small lots sent to regional buyers, sources said. At best, said one trader, there will be 1-2 cargos of a suitable size for a buyer such as India.
Sources now estimate the price of prilled urea at $350-$360/mt FOB out of China, based on the current ex-factory price plus the cost of shipping the product to the ports for export. No new export deals have been done, however, leaving market watchers paying more attention to the factory price.
Brazil:
Brazil urea prices retracted 5.7%, to $370-$380/mt CFR from the previous $390-$400/mt CFR, with the bottom of the range reflecting tons originating from North Africa. Bidding was reported at $360-$365/mt CFR.
Rondonópolis offers softened $20/mt at the top of the range, to $495-$515/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Sources reported minimal business during the week due to high volatility and limited seasonal demand.
Growers continue to move forward with the region’s second corn season. Corn sowing in Mato Grosso state was 67.14% complete during the week, according to Brazil’s National Supply Co. (Conab), above the 56.65% recorded through the same period last year.