US Gulf:
NOLA urea prices continued to cover a broad range, but sources said the market was slipping slightly with each new trade.
March business was quoted at $382-$392/st FOB during the week, with first-half April trades reported at $353-$358.50/st FOB. Prices were lower further out into April, however, with full-April business reportedly concluded at the $340/st FOB level during the week. Those levels were down from last week’s range of $354-$406/st FOB for March and first-half-April business.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Urea remained at the $450-$460/st level FOB regional terminals in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported out of spot Illinois River terminals and the upper end of the range confirmed at Cincinnati, Ohio. In the Great Lakes region, the latest urea offers in Michigan slipped to $490/st FOB or DEL for March-April tons.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea prices were quoted at $450-$465/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the high confirmed in Iowa and the low reported at St. Louis, Mo.
Northern Plains:
Urea was quoted at $480-$500/st FOB in the Northern Plains, with the lower end of the range reported at St. Paul, Minn. Delivered urea was pegged at $540-$560/st for the last offers in the Northern Plains.
Northeast:
Urea prices were higher in the Northeast. The latest urea offers were pegged at $465/st FOB East Liverpool, Ohio, $460-$470/st FOB Baltimore, Md., and $450-$460/st FOB Fairless Hills, Pa. Rail-DEL pricing in New England was quoted in the $485-$500/st range in late March.
Eastern Canada:
Urea pricing slipped to a broad C$640-$725/mt FOB in Eastern Canada, with the low end of the range reflecting a C$60/mt drop from last report.
India:
The Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers Ltd. (RCF) urea tender closed on March 27 with 19 companies offering a total of 3.2 million mt. East Coast offerings totaled 1.4 million mt, while West Coast offers were 1.8 million mt. The lowest price for West Coast delivery came from Liven with 50,000 mt at $339/mt CFR. The lowest East Coast offer came from Samsung at $347.70/mt CFR with 90,000 mt.
The proposed tonnage was said to include some double offers, which could reduce the total amount of urea offered to 2.5 million mt or less. The tonnage is in line with the average of the five Indian tenders conducted in 2023. Only the October 2023 and January 2024 tenders were conducted during China’s restrictions on urea exports, however.
The current tender is not expected to involve more than one or two cargoes of Chinese product. The bulk of the material is expected to come from the Arab Gulf, and possibly Russia.
| West Coast India Offers | ||||
| Offering Company | Quantity | $/mt CFR | ||
| Agrifert Liven | 50,000 | 339.00 | ||
| OQ Trading | 360,000 | 340.20 | ||
| Samsung | 90,000 | 340.70 | ||
| Continental | 100,000 | 341.00 | ||
| Agri Commodities | 150,000 | 342.00 | ||
| Aditya Birla | 200,000 | 344.00 | ||
| Alkagesta | 35,000 | 344.00 | ||
| Medallion | 50,000 | 345.45 | ||
| Dreymoor | 50,000 | 346.00 | ||
| Fertiglobe | 45,000 | 348.00 | ||
| Ameropa | 94,300 | 349.50 | ||
| Indagro | 47,000 | 351.00 | ||
| Midgulf | 150,000 | 351.19 | ||
| Hexagon Fertilizers | 100,000 | 352.52 | ||
| Koch | 95,000 | 353.20 | ||
| FertiStream | 50,000 | 356.00 | ||
| Keytrade | 77,000 | 360.00 | ||
| MacroSource | 50,000 | 368.48 | ||
| Total | 1,793,300 |
| East Coast India Offers | ||
| Offering Company | Quantity | $/mt CFR |
| Samsung | 90,000 | 347.70 |
| Dreymoor | 120,000 | 348.00 |
| Aditya Birla | 200,000 | 349.50 |
| OQ Trading | 90,000 | 351.75 |
| Continental | 100,000 | 352.25 |
| Fertiglobe | 45,000 | 353.00 |
| Hexagon Fertilizers | 50,000 | 354.52 |
| Ameropa | 94,300 | 355.00 |
| Medallion | 50,000 | 355.45 |
| Agri Commodities | 45,000 | 355.50 |
| Indagro | 47,000 | 356.00 |
| Midgulf | 150,000 | 356.19 |
| FertiStream | 50,000 | 359.00 |
| Koch | 95,000 | 362.00 |
| Keytrade | 32,000 | 370.00 |
| MacroSource | 50,000 | 372.48 |
| RE Energy | 50,000 | 375.25 |
| Total | 1,358,300 |
Two companies with direct ties to producers – OQ Trading and Fertiglobe – only offered tons on a delivered basis. At least one Arab Gulf producer will typically present an FOB offer to set the tone for where producers think the AG price should settle.
As soon as the offered tonnage was revealed, traders moved to ascertain where pricing might land. Some initially predicted a price as low as $315/mt CFR, which would indicate an essentially flat market compared to the last tender. Within hours, however, the discussion firmed into the low- to mid-$340s/mt CFR.
In the end, the average West Coast price was $330.12/mt CFR, about $14/mt higher than the previous tender. The East Coast average price was $357.27/mt CFR, or almost $30/mt above the National Fertilizers Ltd. (NFL) tender from January.
As the lowest offering companies, Samsung and Liven are committed to supplying the 50,000 mt and 90,000 mt they respectively offered. The amount of tonnage taken by RCF will most likely depend on the price, players said previously. Had prices settled in the $330s/mt CFR, sources said the buyer would try to purchase as many tons as possible, with the potential goal of nabbing 2 million mt. Now, however, the price indicates RCF may take less than 1 million mt.
India is under no pressure to buy large quantities of urea at this time, as the country’s urea reserves reportedly stand at around 7 million mt. If RCF takes less than 1 million mt, it will still show local distributors and farmers that the government is ensuring a plentiful amount of urea for the upcoming application period, a move that could force international prices lower. A subsequent tender in late May or early June could see softer prices as global reserves build, especially with the return of China to the global market.
Urea imports fell significantly in January, according to Trade Data Monitor, to 401,000 mt from 1.3 million mt in January 2023. Russia led suppliers with 199,000 mt, while Oman added 110,000 mt.
The tonnage was comprised of the final awards from the October 2023 tender – which featured a late-December shipping deadline – and monthly purchases made under contract with OMIFCO. The impact of China’s export restrictions was evident in the month’s numbers. India received 254,000 mt from China in January 2023, but imported no Chinese urea in January 2024.
Black Sea:
Prilled urea prices in the Black Sea were steady at $300/mt FOB.
Sources expect Russian material to make up a large part of the Indian tender awards. While some material might come out of the Black Sea, most of the Russian urea offered is expected to ship from Baltic ports, as sources noted limited rail capacity to move urea to the far eastern portion of the Black Sea for safe loading.
Mediterranean:
The Mediterranean urea market was largely illiquid this week as buyers awaited direction from the Indian tender before making further purchase decisions. Spain and Italy were still consuming existing stocks and France saw retail offers that would net back to around $370/mt CFR, which reflects the high end for this week. The lower end of the range reflects business into Romania done at around $360/mt CFR for product of unspecified origin.
New indications from Egypt at $330-$335/mt FOB would reflect close to $365/mt CFR in the Mediterranean, which is this week’s midpoint. No new prilled urea business was reported for industrial use in the region, but the range tilted lower to $360-$380/mt CFR based on granular trends.
Indonesia:
Pupuk closed a tender through PT Pupuk Sriwidjaja Palembang (Pusri) on March 26 for 5,000 mt of prilled urea. Universal, of the Philippines, snagged the deal at $349/mt FOB.
Pupuk has permission to ship an additional 5,000-10,000 mt of urea, sources said, and another prilled tender is likely to be called soon. The tender, which may not come until after the April 10 Eid holiday, will be for the remaining prilled product.
Pupuk has been offering only prilled urea in accordance with government efforts to ensure a plentiful supply of granular for the domestic market. Additionally, with Pupuk restricted to shipping only small lots of material, potential buyers are effectively limited to those in the Southeast Asia region. Pupuk is expected to offer 30,000 mt of granular urea for buyers located farther afield once new permits are issued.
The lack of any granular exports has left the market to calculate an estimated granular price based on the prilled deal. Granular urea usually maintains a $5-$10/mt premium to prilled, leaving the estimated granular price at $354-$359/mt FOB.
Southeast Asia:
No further granular export business could be confirmed in the region, with Pupuk Indonesia not yet having additional export licenses for granular material but reportedly selling prills. The last granular business was done at $386/mt FOB a month ago, but indications have slipped to $340-$360/mt FOB since then based on prilled business.
Malaysia’s Gurun and Bintulu plants have now returned to full operation. The output from the facilities will go directly to fulfilling contracted deals, sources said, leaving nothing for the spot market. Players reported an inquiry in the vessel market to take 30,000 mt of Petronas product to Chile in mid-April.
Thailand imported 437,000 mt of urea in January-February, Trade Data Monitor reported, more than doubling its year-ago 195,000 mt take. Saudi Arabia accounted for 52% of the imports with 228,000 mt, Malaysia sent 56,000 mt, and Oman added 47,000 mt.
February imports stood at 192,000 mt, up 45% from the 133,000 mt received in February 2023, with Saudi Arabian material capturing 47% of the month’s total. The dominance of Saudi Arabian urea in the Thai market is unsurprising, as Thai buyers are reportedly given substantial discounts by Saudi producers. The CFR price in Thailand is often equal to the FOB price that Saudis quote to other buyers, sources have said.
Middle East:
Sources are waiting for the prices to be revealed in the RCF urea tender. If either OQ or Fertiglobe present an FOB price, that will give players an indication of where producers think the market should be. At the same time, the landed offers into the Indian West Coast will show where everyone else sees the market.
If the Indian price falls in the mid-$340s/mt CFR, as is being discussed, Middle East netbacks could land in the $325-$335/mt FOB range. An outlier offer sub-$340/mt CFR could take the netback closer to $320/mt FOB or below. Producers will have to decide if holding on to a price near $330/mt FOB is worth losing business, and possibly facing even lower prices in a subsequent tender.
The paper market is already looking at a softer Middle East price. Sources reported June price speculation at $310/mt FOB, and $302-$305/mt FOB for the third quarter.
There were multiple reports that some Egyptian producers have concluded deals at $330-$335/mt FOB with buyers filling short orders into Europe. Each sale was noted at 3,000-6,000 mt. Publicly, the producers continue to claim they are holding steady at $340/mt FOB, and that any discussion of pricing in the $330s/mt FOB is just talk.
Despite the denials by the Egyptian producers, sources reported an increase in vessel inquiries seeking to move material from Egypt to Europe.
China:
The domestic urea price in China has continued to fall. The export-equivalent price is now pegged at $306-$309/mt FOB for prills and $324-$328/mt FOB for granular.
Sources stressed that these prices are merely estimates of what urea prices would be based on the ex-plant price, plus costs to transport the tons to a bonded warehouse and complete the export paperwork. No deals to export urea have been done at this time, however. Sources have pointed out that efforts to get a head start on the customs paperwork so shipments can begin in May are being rebuffed by customs officials.
Despite the inability to apply for clearance to export urea in May, sources said producers continue to predict an export price in the $350s/mt FOB once exports resume.
One trader described the large gap between the domestic and export prices as unsurprising. The producers that are given export allocations will look to increase their margins as much as possible.
The trick for the exporters is to ensure that the higher international price does not have a blowback effect on the domestic market. Sources have said that if the Chinese government sees domestic prices rising too rapidly, officials could quickly reinstate export restrictions until the price drops.
The government’s reluctance to allow the export paperwork to move ahead is an indication to traders that only one or two cargoes of urea already held at bonded warehouses will be included in the RCF tender.
Brazil:
Granular urea prices pressed 4.9% lower at Brazil, to $335-$345/mt CFR from last week’s $355-$360/mt CFR, with multiple lots reportedly transacting. Bids reported at $325/mt CFR failed to attract sellers.
Following the weaker pricing in the Brazil CFR and international markets, Rondonópolis prices edged lower as suppliers attempted to stimulate corn safrinha demand. Business was reported in the $475-$500/mt FOB ex-warehouse range during the week.
Argentina:
January-February urea imports to Argentina totaled 160,000 mt, Trade Data Monitor reported, a significant increase on the 13,000 mt received through the same period of 2023. Nigeria sent 86,000 mt, ahead of 42,000 mt from Algeria. February imports of 10,000 mt – all from Bolivia – represented a marginal increase from 9,500 mt in February 2023.