The NOLA urea market was quoted at $298-$308/st FOB for prompt/loaded barges, with first-half May business reported at $288-$291/st FOB and full-May trades reportedly concluded at a low of $285/st FOB. Last week’s range was $288-$315/st FOB for prompt and May business.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Urea remained at $390-$410/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low confirmed out of spot Ohio and Illinois River terminals. The Cincinnati, Ohio, market was unchanged at $400-$410/st FOB in early May. In the Great Lakes region, the latest Michigan terminal offers slipped to $418-$450/st FOB, depending on location.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea prices in the Western Cornbelt were reported in a broad range at $370-$410/st FOB during the week, with the high reported in Iowa. The St. Louis, Mo., market was pegged at $370-$380/st FOB, down from last week’s $380-$395/st FOB range. Delivered urea in Nebraska was quoted at the $425/st level for tons shipped from Oklahoma.
In the Northern Plains, the latest St. Paul, Minn., urea offers slipped to $380-$410/st FOB, down from $410-$430/st FOB the week before. In the Southern Plains, the Catoosa/Inola, Okla., market was reported at $385-$400/st FOB, down from $390-$410/st FOB, while the low in the South Central region dropped to $350-$360/st FOB Convent, La., down from $370/st FOB.
California:
Urea prices were down in California, with the latest offers quoted at $520/st FOB Stockton, below the previous $545/st FOB level.
Pacific Northwest:
Urea prices in the Pacific Northwest slipped to $445/st FOB Rivergate, Ore., $450/st FOB Aurora, Ore., and $465-$475/st DEL, down sharply from the prior $525-$530/st FOB and $540-$590/st DEL ranges.
Western Canada:
Delivered urea in Western Canada was quoted at C$775-$780/mt in early May, largely unchanged from mid-April levels.
India:
Players continued to voice expectations that a new urea tender will be called in mid- to late-May.
Pakistan:
The Pakistan government called on domestic urea producers to lower the price of urea during the week. A price hike announced by the three major producers came without justification, Bloomberg reported, leading the government to demand the price rollback. Producers have requested a few days to prepare a response.
Traders said the government appears ready to import 200,000 mt of urea for the upcoming application season. Top trading houses remain hesitant to participate in a urea tender with Pakistan, however, with sources describing the country’s payment process as disadvantageous to suppliers. In order to avoid the tender process, Trading Corp. of Pakistan Ltd. (TCP) has negotiated recent import transactions through government-to-government deals, sources said.
Black Sea:
Black Sea prilled urea prices tightened to $250-$260/mt FOB.
First-quarter urea imports to Turkey stood at 1.1 million mt, Trade Data Monitor reported, a 21% increase from the 886,000 mt received in January-March 2023. Oman led suppliers with 614,000 mt, for 57% of the tonnage, followed by Egypt with 325,000 mt.
Mediterranean:
Small sales in Italy at $320/mt CFR brought urea prices down in the Mediterranean. In nearby Romania, prices were reported down to $315/mt CFR, which constitutes this week’s low. There continued to be higher offers in the market as well, however, including €330/mt FCA in France, which reflects around $335/mt CFR, a level no longer deemed workable by buyers.
It remains to be seen whether Egyptian producers succeed in propping up prices at or above the $300/mt FOB mark. For now, granular urea in the Mediterranean was reported at $315-$320/mt CFR. There were no further reports of new prill business, but prices were indicated at $325-$345/mt CFR, in line with the downward trend for granular.
Indonesia:
Pupuk closed granular urea sales totaling 85,000 mt priced at $305-$306/mt FOB, with the entire amount slated for delivery to eastern Australia. The price for the deals was based on last week’s concluded tender.
Southeast Asia:
With Malaysia and Brunei reported fulfilling contract business, this week’s Southeast Asia granular price was reported at $305-$306/mt FOB.
Middle East:
While no deals were cut this week, sources said talks for new urea business have settled in the low-$280s/mt FOB. Producers are said to be pushing for $285/mt FOB, while buyers are arguing for $280/mt FOB.
Deals from last week reported just above the $300/mt FOB mark no longer appear to be possible for producers. The closest they might come will result from backing potential awards into Ethiopia.
Sources put Arab Gulf netbacks from the Ethiopian Agricultural Businesses Corp. (EABC) tender at $290/mt FOB. While awards have yet to be issued in the tender, sources said it is likely at least some of the awards will include Arab Gulf material, leaving granular urea from the region at $280-$290/mt FOB.
The unusual $290/mt FOB prilled urea deal from last week is now seen by the market as a one-off, and new talks underway for prilled tons are expected to return the price to its typical discount to granular. Sources reported discussions in the upper-$270s/mt FOB and lower-$280s/mt FOB, though no deals were concluded during the quiet week.
Following last week’s sale at $302/mt FOB, Egyptian producers have gone silent. Since that deal, nothing new has been publicly conceded by producers or buyers, leaving the price unchanged.
China:
Both the Labor Day Golden Week holiday and uncertainty surrounding China’s updated export regulations have left few opportunities for price discovery in China. With urea exports still unsettled, sources said few players appear willing to take large positions involving Chinese product.
Traders expect the dust to begin settling next week. Urea sales might begin to conclude in time for the IFA conference in Singapore, players said.
Thailand:
Extreme heat has many in Thailand worried about the upcoming application season, and urea imports have slowed compared to 2023. Buyers are reportedly awaiting predictions for the rain season expected to begin in June.
First-quarter urea imports fell 8% year-over-year, according to Trade Data Monitor, to 88,000 mt from 96,000 mt. Australia and Malaysia supplied 31,000 mt and 30,000 mt, respectively. March imports were pegged at 24,000 mt, a roughly one-quarter decline from the 31,000 mt received in March 2023.
Ethiopia:
EABC has yet to issue awards in the urea tender that closed last week. The bulk of the lowest-priced offers will likely originate from the Arab Gulf, sources said, with an estimated netback of $290/mt FOB. All told, EABC is seeking six cargoes of about 52,000 mt each for May-June shipment.
Brazil:
Brazil granular urea prices stood at $310-$315/mt CFR, narrowing from last week’s $305-$320/mt CFR range. Offers reported at $320/mt CFR and bids at $300-$305/mt CFR failed to attract business during the week, players said.
Rondonópolis prices fell to a flat $455/mt FOB, the bottom of last week’s $455-$475/mt FOB range, as buyers in the region remain focused on phosphates rather than nitrogen.