US Gulf:
The NOLA urea market was quoted at $285-$295/st FOB for limited trades during the week, with the high confirmed for loaded barge transactions. Sources quoted full May business at the $290/st FOB level, with first-half June trades reported at $285-$292/st FOB. The range fell within last week’s $282-$298/st FOB level.
New barge business was also reported at $306-$310/st FOB for upriver tons and down to $280/st FOB for July business, but those levels fell outside of this week’s reported range due to timing and location.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Urea was unchanged at $370-$390/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported at Illinois River terminals and the high at inland warehouses. The Cincinnati, Ohio, market was steady at the $375-$380/st FOB level in late May. Delivered urea pricing in Michigan slipped to the $403-$408/st level for May tons.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea prices in the Western Cornbelt fell to $350-$390/st FOB during the week, down $10/st from last report, with the low confirmed at St. Louis, Mo., and the high reported in Iowa.
California:
Urea was quoted at $520-$540/st FOB in California, with the low reported for bulk granular tons at Stockton and the high for prilled urea at San Diego. Bagged granular urea pricing was reported at the $560/st FOB Stockton level during the week.
Pacific Northwest:
Urea pricing in the Pacific Northwest slipped to $425-$430/st FOB and $440-$450/st DEL at mid-month, down from the prior $445-$450/st FOB and $465-475/st DEL ranges. The low end of the FOB range was reported at Rivergate, Ore.
Western Canada:
The urea market in Western Canada remained at C$775-$780/mt DEL and C$760-$770/mt FOB in late May.
India:
Sources now say India’s next urea tender may not be called until July. Traders argue that India’s current urea reserves – estimated to hit 11 million mt by the end of the month – and the current national election support the delay.
A decision to import urea will be made by the Department of Fertilizers (DoF). Once the election results are known, the government will pass a final budget to replace the current provisional budget. A decision to call a tender will come only when the DoF knows how much money it will have for imports, said one trader.
First-quarter urea imports fell 35%, Trade Data Monitor reported, to 1.1 million mt from the 1.7 million mt received in January-March 2023. Russia led suppliers with 351,000 mt, the UAE shipped 259,000 mt, and Oman sent 226,000 mt. March imports were noted at 417,000 mt, above the 235,000 mt reported in March 2023.
Black Sea:
Prilled urea prices remained steady at $240-$245/mt FOB in the Black Sea.
Mediterranean:
Market participants in the Mediterranean are still recovering from the rally in Egyptian urea prices, which reached $310/mt FOB last week and $320/mt FOB on May 20. Indications in Italy were higher at $320-$325/mt CFR but buyer interest was scarce, while offers in nearby Romania were heard as high as $330/mt CFR.
With no confirmed fresh sales, the Mediterranean granular urea spot market was reported at $310-$325/mt CFR for the week, reflecting the last confirmed transaction on the low end and fresh offers on the high end.
Southeast Asia:
Reports of an imminent Indonesian granular urea tender ahead of the IFA Singapore conference materialized on May 21, when one trader was reported to bid $312/mt FOB for 45,000 mt for June loading. This moved the regional price range to $290-$312/mt FOB, with the low reflecting the latest Brunei sale and the high reflecting the highest bid seen by Pupuk Kaltim.
Indonesia:
Pupuk Kaltim closed a tender for 45,000 mt of granular urea. Nearly 20 companies bid on the tonnage, with prices ranging from the low-$290s/mt FOB to just over $310/mt FOB. In the end, sources reported that Universal Harvester, from the Philippines, was awarded the tonnage at a price of $312.26/mt FOB.
Sources said 6,000-10,000 mt of the order could easily be offered into the Atlas/Philippines tender, while the remainder could end up going to Universal’s regular plantation customers.
Following a tender, Pupuk will typically enter into talks with other traders to move additional tons at the tender price. By the end of the week, a total of 190,000 mt of granular was reportedly sold at the level set by the tender.
One trader argued that the tender was called to facilitate sales into the Philippines, as export business from Indonesia can only be accomplished through a public tender. This latest tender will allow for tons from the initial call to be included in offers into the Atlas/Philippines tender. Other tonnage could also be easily sent to Australia.
Middle East:
Circulating rumors pointed to a series of transactions this week. One confirmed deal involved 20,000 mt of SABIC prilled urea at $295/mt FOB, while other unconfirmed deals were said to include granular tons from Oman and other producers priced just above $300/mt FOB.
Traders reported hearing of the granular deals, but could offer no details on buyers or sellers. They did agree, however, that given the $295/mt FOB price for prilled urea, a granular price of $300-$305/mt FOB would make sense.
The increase in Arab Gulf pricing was expected, but did not come as dramatically as people looking for a sustainable rise wanted. They noted that the price increase did not match the ones seen last week and earlier this week in Egyptian pricing. Sources expect the typical $10-$12/mt gap between Egyptian and Arab Gulf prices to narrow due to the rising prices from Arab Gulf producers. The current estimated gap of $15/mt is still considered to be too high.
The week opened with the Egyptian government ordering urea producers to cut production by 20% due to a planned diversion of natural gas allocations away from the industry, an action similar to one taken last year.
On the heels of the government’s order, MOPCO reportedly sold a 10,000 mt cargo at $315/mt FOB, followed by another 5,000 mt at $320/mt FOB. After those sales, producers were said to pull back in order to assess their situation in light of the government-prescribed cutback, and no further deals were reported.
The reduction in output should not significantly impact export sales, sources said, as producers have already booked cargoes well into June and have the reserves on hand to ensure that each order is filled.
Sources pointed to a similar reduction in output ordered last year. The producers had enough material on hand to cover their advance orders without difficulty. At the same time, the gas allocations were restored in time to cover bids for product, again without any evident shortages.
China:
Sources said their talks with Chinese producers and traders at the IFA annual conference in Singapore led them to believe that no urea will be exported until July.
The Chinese domestic market remains stronger than expected. Sources have said the domestic price will have to come down before the government allows large-scale exports. One source noted that the drop will most likely not happen until July.
The impact of China’s policy of restricting exports was evident in the latest trade numbers. Trade Data Monitor reported January-April exports at 31,000 mt, down dramatically from the year-ago 602,000 mt. South Korea took 13,000 mt, followed by Hong Kong with 7,600 mt. April exports totaled 5,200 mt – divided equally between Hong Kong and Myanmar – off from the 76,000 mt shipped in April 2023.
Brazil:
Brazil granular urea prices jumped 5.8%, to $320-$325/mt CFR from the week-ago $300-$310/mt CFR. Players confirmed sales of both North African and Russian tons into Paranaguá, while bidding at $310/mt CFR failed to attract a seller.
Demand is rising in the inland nitrogen market as June approaches, though few deals were reported at Rondonópolis during the week. Prices firmed to $460/mt FOB ex-warehouse.
Attention was reportedly focused on the Egyptian government’s announcement that producers will reduce production by 20% due to a decrease in natural gas supplies to factories. Prices for Egyptian tons were noted as high as $330/mt FOB in June and $325/mt FOB Egypt in July. Rising prices are expected to generate uncertainty in Rondonópolis, but may also support domestic prices in the short-term.
Argentina:
Argentina imported 240,000 mt of urea in January-April, Trade Data Monitor reported, a significant increase from the 34,000 mt received during the same period of 2023.
The tons were imported before the government dropped its 5.4% import duty on non-Egyptian urea. Even with the duty in place, Nigeria, Algeria, and Bolivia surpassed Egypt’s imports during the first four months of the year, sending 86,000 mt, 42,000 mt, and 36,000 mt, respectively.
April imports were put at 38,000 mt, a notable increase from the 5,600 mt received in April 2023.