US Gulf:
NOLA urea prices slipped amid thin trading during the week. Loaded barge transactions were confirmed at the $305-$309/st FOB level early in the week, but new business on June 20 saw prompt barge business concluded at the $290/st FOB level. July business was quoted in the $290-$297/st FOB range during the week. Last week’s range was $308-$330/st FOB.
US Imports:
July-April urea imports firmed 24.6% year-over-year, to 4.74 million st from 3.81 million st. April imports were up 121.9%, to 1.27 million st from 573,500 st. July-April imports from Russia were 1.35 million st. Qatar sent 992,998 st, Algeria shipped 560,095 st, and Saudi Arabia sent 443,925 st.
US Exports:
Urea exports fell 45.5% in July-April, to 710,988 st from the year-ago 1.30 million st. April cargoes were counted at 70,866 st, nearly unchanged from the 70,604 st reported one year earlier. Exports to Canada totaled 503,371 st in July-April, followed by 89,286 st to Mexico and 77,185 st to Chile.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Urea was quoted at $360-$380/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low confirmed out of Illinois River terminals for June-July tons and the high out of inland warehouses in Ohio. The Cincinnati, Ohio, market remained at $365-$375/st FOB during the week.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea in the Western Cornbelt slipped to $335-$365/st FOB, down $10/st from last week, with the low reported at Port Neal. The St. Louis, Mo., market remained at $345-$350/st FOB at mid-month, while pricing in the Southern Plains dipped to $355-$365/st FOB Catoosa/Inola, Okla.
Northern Plains:
Urea slipped to $360-$380/st FOB regional terminals in the Northern Plains, with the St. Paul, Minn., market reported at the lower end of the range. Delivered urea was pegged at $400-$430/st in the region, down from the prior $410-$460/st DEL range, with the low confirmed for unit train shipments in eastern North Dakota.
Northeast:
Urea remained at $380-$390/st FOB in the Northeast, with the low confirmed at Fairless Hills, Pa., and the high at Baltimore, Md., and East Liverpool, Ohio.
Eastern Canada:
Urea was quoted in a broad range at C$592-$700/mt FOB in Eastern Canada, down just C$3/mt at the low end of the range.
India:
The industry continues to await India’s next urea tender call, with most players expecting the tender to come between next week and mid-July.
The number of tons that India buys will ultimately depend on the price, traders said. Prices have already dropped following last week’s jolt triggered by Egypt and China. If the trend continues, Indian buyers may look to secure the tonnage it needs for the rest of the season – upwards of 1.5 million mt – in a single go. However, if the price moves higher once again, sources speculated that buyers will take the bare minimum and call a follow-up tender in August to fill out the rest of their demand.
India has flexibility in its buying options because of the large reserves of urea it already has on hand. The country reportedly entered June with an unprecedented 11 million mt available for the upcoming season. For now, end-user urea demand is expected to marginally increase from last year, leaving buyers plenty of options on how many tons to import.
Urea imports softened 23% in January-April, Trade Data Monitor reported, to 1.5 million mt from the year-ago 1.96 million mt. April imports were noted at 410,000 mt, however, up 47% from the 279,000 mt purchased in April 2023.
Due to China’s continued restrictions on urea exports, Indian buyers have been forced to look to other suppliers to fulfill their needs. The country received zero Chinese tons in January-April, compared to 290,000 mt imported during the same period in 2023. To make up for the loss of Chinese product, India purchased 491,000 mt of urea from Russia, 435,000 mt from Oman, and 271,000 mt from the UAE.
Black Sea:
Prilled urea loading from the Black Sea was unchanged at $300-$305/mt FOB.
Mediterranean:
Fresh urea offers in Italy were heard at $375/mt CFR, with stocks described as low. Returns from FCA sales in France reflect around $380/mt CFR Atlantic Coast, but buyers are reasonably well covered. Nearby Romania also saw offers move to $375/mt CFR following the recent Egyptian rally. As a result, granular urea in the Mediterranean firmed to $375-$380/mt CFR this week.
Southeast Asia:
No new granular urea sales were reported this week, leaving the Southeast Asia market unchanged at $312-$320/mt FOB. Indonesian granular availability is limited with Kaltim down for a turnaround for the next month. Brunei has export availability for July, but no price ideas were put forward.
Indonesia:
Kaltim is still in the process of loading the tons sold during its latest tender. Weather delays at the ports have combined with production issues to push the loading dates well into July, sources said, instead of in June as previously expected. The loading of some material may even be pushed back to early August, one trader noted.
The delayed loadings could postpone a new tender call to late July or early August. Any sales at that time would most likely target demand from southern Australia, sources said.
Middle East:
Sources pegged the Arab Gulf granular urea market in the low-$350s/mt FOB, though the paper market suggests a price in the mid-$320s/mt FOB. The softer pricing comes as the market recovers from last week’s twin shocks of Egyptian production grinding to a halt and China once again putting the brakes on urea exports.
The return of Egyptian production and rumors that some Chinese urea might be available for August shipment – just in time for the next Indian tender – have softened some traders’ views on the Egyptian market. The latest price from the area was reported at $335-$340/mt FOB with the paper market in the low-$330s/mt FOB, a significant drop from last week’s $355/mt FOB.
Egyptian sources confirmed reports that natural gas supplies have returned to normal, allowing plants to slowly ramp up production. Two MOPCO plants have already returned to their normal 80% production rate, said sources, and an additional facility is expected to come online over the weekend.
Other producers are said to be slowly moving from a 60% production rate in the current week to 80% in the week ahead. The only holdout seems to be Kima, which continues to show its facilities as offline.
China:
No changes to China’s export restrictions were reported during the week. Even if urea cargoes were suddenly allowed to be exported, one trader noted, there would be delays at the ports.
Chinese regulations require work at the ports to cease when temperatures reach about 98 F. China, along with many other parts of the world, is facing a major heatwave that is causing a work stoppage at the ports. Even once temperatures drop, said one trader, the backlog will remain in place for some time, causing delays in all manner of exports.
The Chinese government has tightened its restrictions on urea exports compared to previous efforts. In the past, authorities were allowed to export small lots of 5,000-8,000 mt to South Korea for its pollution control measures and to regional buyers. Now, however, even these small lots are being held back.
January-May urea exports totaled 65,000 mt, Trade Data Monitor reported, down 92% from the year-ago 785,000 mt. South Korea took 27,000 mt, Hong Kong received 10,000 mt, and Malaysia purchased 8,000 mt.
South Korea:
In response to last year’s limitations on Chinese urea exports, South Korean buyers sought alternative suppliers to meet their needs. Beijing’s latest export restrictions have left the South Korean government concerned about securing enough urea, though the government is less worried than it was last year.
The steps to replace Chinese urea with product from the Arab Gulf, Vietnam, and Indonesia have begun to pay off. At the same time, Seoul is considering an offer of support to companies looking to establish a limited domestic urea production operation.
South Korea imported 385,000 mt of urea in during the first five months of the year, Trade Data Monitor reported, a 5% increase from the year-ago 368,000 mt. Qatar shipped 115,000 mt, Vietnam added 91,000 mt, and Indonesia sent 46,000 mt.
China sent 28,000 mt during the period, down from 154,000 mt in 2023 and 135,000 mt in January-May 2022. May imports were reported at 32,000 mt, falling more than half from the 70,000 mt received in the prior May.
Brazil:
Sources noted softer demand for the week due to rising urea prices, leaving buyers wary. The restoration of gas supply in Egypt combined with lower international prices could lead to a price correction in Brazil, players speculated, potentially helping growers to complete summer crop purchases. With imports from Nigeria and Qatar rising by nearly 25% and 5%, respectively, January-May import volumes are now similar to those seen one year earlier.
Granular urea imports softened by $5/mt, breaking a five-week uptrend to settle at $360-$370/mt CFR. Multiple offers were reported for tons originating from Oman, Nigeria, and Russia.
Rondonópolis prices rose another 6% to $500-$530/mt FOB, though a small number of negotiations were reported in the $490-$495/mt FOB range.