US Gulf:
Limited NOLA urea business this week was reported at $300-$302/st FOB for loaded barges and $288-$297/st FOB for full July, down from last week’s $303-$308/st FOB range.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Urea was quoted at $365-$375/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at Cincinnati, Ohio. Most Illinois River terminals were reported at the $370/st FOB level for July-August tons.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea in the Western Cornbelt was pegged at $345-$365/st FOB, with the low reported at St. Louis, Mo.
California:
Urea was unchanged at $490-$540/st FOB in California, with the low reported for granular bulk tons at Stockton and the high for prilled urea at San Diego. Bagged granular urea pricing remained at the $560/st FOB Stockton level during the week. No current DEL prices were confirmed in California in early July.
Pacific Northwest:
The urea market was quoted at $415-$420/st FOB in the Pacific Northwest, depending on location, with delivered tons reported at $385-$410/st in early July.
Western Canada:
Urea was up slightly in Western Canada, to C$630-$640/mt DEL from the prior C$625-$640/mt range, depending on time of shipment.
India:
The market continued to await the close of the Indian Potash Ltd. (IPL) tender on July 8. Sources expect prices to run slightly above the last tender and that IPL will take less than 1 million mt, with the bulk of the product coming from the Arab Gulf. There are also reports that a number of traders are talking with Russian suppliers for support in the tender.
Black Sea:
Prices remained stable for Black Sea prilled urea at $305-$310/mt FOB. Sources continue to speculate that Russian prilled will make a large appearance in the IPL/India tender that is slated to close July 8.
Turkey:
January-May urea imports fell 6% year-over-year, according to Trade Data Monitor, to 1.6 million mt from 1.7 million mt. Oman led suppliers with 849,000 mt, while Egypt added 517,000 mt. May imports were noted at 280,000 mt, a 24% decline from the 368,000 mt received in May 2023.
Ethiopia:
Urea imports to Ethiopia stood at 502,000 mt in January-June, Trade Data Monitor reported, more than double the 250,000 mt received in January-June 2023. Egypt supplied 60% of the tonnage with 304,000 mt, followed by Oman with 155,000 mt. Ethiopia imported 205,000 mt in June, a significant increase from the 50,000 mt received one year earlier. Second-quarter imports were counted at 255,000 mt, up from 100,000 mt in April-June 2023.
Mediterranean:
Granular urea in the Mediterranean was up slightly at $375-$385/mt CFR.
European urea buying is seasonally muted, easing concerns and moderating the price impact of prolonged Egyptian outages. Fresh offers in Italy were heard at $385/mt CFR, and with Yara’s production still down, stocks at Ravenna port are low. Elsewhere in the Mediterranean, French buyers are not motivated to resupply and offers of $390/mt CFR and above failed to attract interest.
Southeast Asia:
Southeast Asia granular urea pricing remained at $312-$350/mt FOB. No granular urea sales were reported this week in the region as suppliers assess their positions ahead of the IPL tender closing on July 8. Availability is limited, with Kaltim in turnaround and Bintulu tripped.
Indonesia:
Pupuk Holdings on July 4 called a snap tender to close July 5 for up to 45,000 mt of granular urea. This is Pupuk’s first tender since mid-May, when the company sold 280,000 mt of product for June and July shipment. The tons offered this week were said to be for August shipment.
While Pupuk did not indicate a reserve price, prior to the tender call sources said the producer would be looking for a minimum of $350/mt FOB. That idea was based on recent sales from Malaysia and Brunei in the mid- to upper-$340s/mt FOB. Tender results were not available as Green Markets went to press on July 5.
The tender call surprised many in the industry. Sources were expecting Pupuk to hold off until the IPL/Indian tender closes on July 8. In calling a tender now, Pupuk might be helping to establish a price for the Indian tender more to its liking. One trader noted that any offer into India under $360/mt CFR would not sit well with the Indonesians.
Thailand:
Urea imports totaled 1.1 million mt in January-May, according to Trade Data Monitor, a 20% increase from the year-ago 931,000 mt. Saudi Arabia, which traditionally offers steep discounts to Thai buyers, sent 461,000 mt. May imports were 173,000 mt, down by almost half from the 329,00 mt received in the prior May.
Middle East:
Traders are reportedly bidding in the $340s/mt FOB while producers continue to hold offers in the $350s/mt FOB. The lack of new spot business prevented any confirmable price changes.
Producers are slowly rebuilding their inventories after several plants were taken offline for routine maintenance. The area’s return to production is coming just as India called a urea tender. Sources expect the bulk of the tons offered in the tender to come from the Arab Gulf.
Natural gas supplies were being restored to urea production facilities during the week, Egyptian producers reported. Some plants have begun to slowly ramp up operations, though concerns remain that supplies could be cut back once again.
MOPCO is reportedly starting up only one of its three urea lines. One trader said the move made sense given the volatility of gas supplies in Egypt.
The recent closure of plants cost the country an estimated 550,000 mt of its roughly 7 million mt/y production capacity, sources said. Once production is back up and any domestic concerns are covered, sources speculated that producers will be aiming for at least a $30/mt price increase, placing Egyptian prices in line with recent deals closed by Algeria in the $370s/mt FOB.
China:
Rumors from China now indicate the government may extend its export restrictions into October. The restrictions were initially slated to be lifted in June. However, concerns surrounding rising prices in the domestic market prompted the government to block exports in an effort to force the local market down.
In addition to discouraging exports, the government is said to be leaning on producers to increase output. Most plants are reportedly functioning at just 60% of rated capacity. Sources said the government would like to see production increase to at least 80%.
Brazil:
Brazil granular urea prices were steady at $355-$365/mt CFR. Buyers remained on the sidelines pending the results of the Indian tender, and the week’s limited demand was further constrained by the devaluation of the Brazilian real. International factors remained largely unchanged, with natural gas supply in Egypt gradually returning while Chinese export restrictions continue. Sanctioned product was offered at $340/mt CFR.
A 5% week-over-week decline in corn prices reportedly impacted sentiment at Rondonópolis, though buyers still have time to decide on fertilizer purchases for the second corn crop and how best to maximize barter ratios. Prices fell in the $480-$500/mt FOB range for immediate delivery. Fourth-quarter deals closed above $500/mt FOB, with offers noted at $505-$510/mt FOB.