US Gulf:
The NOLA urea market widened to $308-$323/st FOB for confirmed business during the week, compared with last week’s $311-$322/st FOB. September trades were quoted at $318-$323/st FOB, with October business reported at the $308-$318/st FOB level.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Urea was steady at $350-$370/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported out of spot Illinois River terminals. The Cincinnati, Ohio, market was unchanged at $360-$365/st FOB in mid-September.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea firmed to $350-$370/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the St. Louis, Mo., market reported at the $355-$365/st FOB level at mid-month.
Southern Plains:
Urea pricing edged up to $360-$380/st FOB in the Southern Plains, with the Catoosa/Inola, Okla., market pegged at the upper end of the range.
South Central:
Urea was reported at $355-$380/st FOB in the South Central region, up from a high of $370/st last week, with the low reported at Convent, La., and the high at Little Rock, Ark. The Memphis, Tenn., market was pegged at $365-$375/st FOB at mid-month.
Southeast:
Urea prices were up $5/st at port terminals in the Southeast, to $365-$375/st FOB in mid-September.
India:
Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers Ltd. (RCF) on Sept. 19 called a urea tender to close on Oct. 3 with a shipping deadline of Nov. 20. Rumors began circulating this week of a new pending urea tender. The market first expected the tender to be called in early October. As the week progressed, however, a handful of traders speculated the call could come as early as this week.
The tender call came as domestic urea offtake projections shifted from steady to aggressive. Sources looked at the country’s current urea reserves of roughly 6 million mt and the urea on order from long-term contracts and the recent Aug. 29 National Fertilizers Ltd. (NFL) tender. They then compared that tonnage against the estimated demand and saw that India could fall as much as 1.5 million mt short of urea for the upcoming Rabi season. More product would have to be purchased quickly to fill the estimated shortfall.
So far, vessels have been nominated for only about 400,000 mt of the 1.17 million mt awarded by NFL, one trader noted. The remaining material still needs to be secured, but prices are moving beyond the NFL tender price.
Prices in the Arab Gulf have reportedly jumped $10-$20/mt since the previous tender was awarded. The increase will impact traders who were looking to buy October tons to fulfill their awards in the NFL tender. With sources speculating that RCF may attempt to buy more than 1 million mt, a higher price could prompt the Indian treasury to encourage RCF to take the bare minimum and refrain from a larger purchase.
The Indian government has already reassessed the country’s subsidy needs for the upcoming application season. The government will increase the amount available for urea subsidies by 10%, local media reported, to $14 billion.
Black Sea:
Prices edged up to $300-$305/mt FOB for prilled urea in the Black Sea region.
Mediterranean:
France continued to see granular urea activity $375/mt CFR this week. Offers in Spain climbed to $390/mt CFR to reflect the latest Egyptian FOB values, but there were no takers at that level, leaving the regional market unchanged at $360-$375/mt CFR.
The latest tender news from India has triggered upward pressure in the market, however, and is likely to move prices higher once the inland wholesale markets in France and Spain begin accepting higher offers.
Delivered prilled urea prices in the Mediterranean were quoted lower at $320-$340/mt FOB on reports of offers in the Black Sea following the Indian tender award, which reflects around $290/mt FOB Black Sea.
Southeast Asia:
As many as three urea cargoes from the Southeast Asia region are reportedly committed for India following the NFL urea tender, yielding netbacks of around $320/mt FOB, down from last week’s low of $330/mt FOB. No further updates on Indonesian granular exports were reported, resulting in an unchanged high of $366/mt FOB.
BFI/Brunei is said to have one cargo of 35,000-40,000 mt available for sale in late October. Petronas, in Malaysia, is reportedly sold out through October and possibly into early November.
Activity has been muted on the buy side, with a small volume secured via tender in the Philippines netting back to around $330-$335/mt FOB and falling within the existing range.
Indonesia:
Pupuk Holdings closed a quick tender on Sept. 19 for 30,000-45,000 mt of granular urea for October shipment. Initial reports put pricing in the mid-$350s/mt FOB, though confirmation of the price and awards is expected next week.
In the past, the tons offered in Indonesian tenders have marked an entry point for further discussions. Pupuk will most likely go into private talks with bidding companies for additional sales. The last granular tender was for a similar amount to the current offer, but ultimately generated sales totaling approximately 200,000 mt over a roughly two-month period.
Pupuk’s last granular tender settled at $366/mt FOB. Sources have recently discussed prices in Southeast Asia in the $330s/mt FOB. While Indonesian product typically carries a premium over tons from Malaysia or Brunei, a $20/mt gap is unusual. If Pupuk does settle in the mid-$350s/mt FOB, other prices in the region should expect to see a bounce.
The tender marks the return of Pupuk to the granular export market after a longer-than-usual break. Sources attributed the delay to a number of factors. Severe weather initially delayed the loading of product sold in June. Only in the past few weeks was the last of that tonnage finally loaded and shipped. At the same time, sources reported that disputes between Pupuk officials and the new leadership in government ministries caused additional delays in selling product offshore.
Government officials were overly anxious to ensure a domestic supply of urea beyond normal demands, said one trader. The political leadership has changed, however, and Pupuk has now been allowed to prepare the paperwork for a tender.
A July prilled tender left the market at $381/mt FOB, and Pupuk reportedly sold a small 5,000 mt lot to a Philippines buyer at that price this week. Prilled urea has been trading at a premium to granular in the Southeast Asia region due to the absence of Chinese product.
South Korea:
South Korea has been working to reduce its dependency on Chinese urea. According to the latest figures from Trade Data Monitor, the efforts are beginning to pay off.
Urea imports firmed 17% in January-August, to 492,000 mt from the 460,000 mt received in the same period of 2023. Vietnam led suppliers with 121,000 mt, up from 33,000 mt last year. Qatar sent 115,000 mt and China shipped 93,000 mt, off from 203,000 mt purchased through the same period of 2023. August imports of 72,000 mt were up 81% from the 40,000 mt received in August 2023.
Middle East:
Sources discussed deals at $340/mt FOB during the week. By the end of the week, however, reports surfaced of a late-October sale of granular urea at $350/mt FOB. Prior to that, sources were putting the market at $335-$345/mt FOB.
Until the end of the week, producers seemed content with pricing centered around the $340/mt FOB level. However, noted one source, the RCF urea tender call appears to have jump-started the market. The new price range of $335-$350/mt FOB represents an increase of $10-$20/mt from the netbacks earned in the last Indian tender.
Thanks both to the NFL tender and long-term contract sales, Arab Gulf producers are reportedly in a comfortable position. Claiming to be sold out through October, some are only willing to discuss deals for November.
The higher prices and growing supply tightness are expected to cause some concern for traders who have not yet secured October product as part of their NFL awards. While many have already cut deals at the tender-related price in the $320s/mt FOB, others will have to deal with the rising market.
Only about 400,000 mt of the 1.17 million mt awarded in the NFL tender has been booked to vessels to date, sources said. The remaining tonnage still needs to be secured and shipped, all at a time of rising prices.
Egypt:
The week closed with Egypt urea prices moving up $5-7/mt from last week’s levels. Helwan sold several lots of granular urea totaling 20,000 mt at $365/mt FOB, followed by MOPCO selling 10,000 mt at $367/mt FOB. All of the sales were for October shipment to buyers in Europe.
China:
Sources reported further urea price softening at factories in China. There appears to be no softening of the central government’s policy on restricting urea exports, however.
Ethiopia:
The Ethiopian Agricultural Businesses Corp. (EABC) tender for 250,000 mt closed on Sept. 17. The EABC called for offers to ship in five equal lots from late September through mid-November.
The lowest offer was from Pacific International at $355/mt CFR for the first lot, about $8/mt down from the July EABC tender.
| Offering Company | Price ($/mt CIF) | ||||
| Lot 1 | Lot 2 | Lot 3 | Lot 4 | Lot 5 | |
| Pacific International | 355.00 | 359.00 | 368.00 | 373.00 | 375.00 |
| West Trade | 375.00 | 378.00 | 380.00 | 385.00 | 382.00 |
| ETG | 418.00 | 419.00 | 435.00 | 422.00 | |
Samsung submitted offers on an FOB basis. The company’s offers for Lot 1 at $352/mt FOB and Lot 5 at $362/mt FOB were expected to be sourced from the Middle East, and a Lot 3 offer of $375/mt FOB was slated to come from Egypt. Midgulf also reportedly offered Egyptian tons – for Lot 5 only – at $410/mt FOB.
It appears as though Pacific International and West Trade each offered material from Oman. The single offer from Midgulf and one of the four offers from ETG were for Egyptian product. Nigerian suppliers appear to have backed the remaining offers from ETG.
Brazil:
Granular urea prices softened to $350-$360/mt CFR in Brazil. Early-week prices noted toward the lower end of the range firmed to $356-$358/mt CFR as rumors of a new India tender circulated. Prices reached $360/mt CFR when the tender was called, causing some sellers to exit the market.
The domestic market was stable at $480-$500/mt FOB Rondonópolis. Growers remain focused on planting for the summer crop, pushing nitrogen demand closer to the season’s typical fourth-quarter peak.
While the import lineup shows approximately 700,000 mt due to unload in September, port congestion may force some carryover into October, sources said.
Argentina:
The Argentina urea market remained at a standstill during the week, with prices holding at $370-$375/mt CFR.