U.S. Gulf: Most last week put granular trades within the $395-$400/st FOB range, but said they were firming as the week ended to $405/st FOB. Prills were reported at $425/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt: Granular urea remained at $445-$450/st FOB in Eastern Canada.
Western Cornbelt: The granular urea market in the Western Cornbelt was quoted at $435-$445/st FOB in early February.
California: Sources tagged the granular urea market in the $525-$545/st FOB range in California last week.
Pacific Northwest: The granular urea market was pegged at $500/st FOB and $520-$525/st DEL in the Pacific Northwest in early February.
Western Canada: Although reference pricing for granular urea in Western Canada remained at $660-$680/mt DEL, sources said spot tons could be had in the low-$600s/mt DEL on a spot basis in early February.
Black Sea: Ice and bad weather last week caused delays in loadings. While the port at Yuzhnyy was declared open by the end of the week, Asian sources said reports of continued frigid weather could further delay loadings.
The material being loaded is primarily tonnage booked by Latin American buyers and the tail-end of the Pakistan tenders.
The major urea buyers are laying low. Indian buyers are not expected to start making inquiries until early- or mid-March, say sources. At the same time, Latin American buyers, while taking tons, are not making any large forward commitments. Without new deals to make the pricing expectations official, sources say the market remains in the $370s/mt FOB.
Middle East: To hear producers tell the story, they are sold out and prices should be picking up soon. Traders and buyers, however, have a different tale.
All sides agree that Sabic is perhaps in the best shape of all the regional suppliers. Its contracts to Asia and the Americas, combined with the government-to-government deals with Pakistan, pretty much ensure Sabic will be shipping all it can produce for the next few weeks.
Other producers, however, are not so lucky. Sources report reserves are building up for other Arab producers.
One trader noted that Qafco is pushing back the date when its #5 facility comes fully online.
Sources say exports from Iran will most likely not be affected by the new sanctions placed on that country by the U.S. and Western Europe.
Buyers such as India, South Korea, and Taiwan will continue to buy fertilizer, ammonia, and petroleum from Iran.
For India, Iranian urea has become a major component of its buying program.
All in all, sources say prices have not shifted in the region.
India: Traders are beginning to speculate how soon India will re-enter the market. The best guess is that IPL will initiate talks with producers sometime during the first week of March. Others say those talks will not start until just after March 15.
A consensus is growing that a tender will be called near the middle or end of March for April delivery.
The Indian buyers will not be able to issue awards until after the new fiscal year begins April 1. That date, said one trader, pretty much means that a tender will not close until the last week of March.
Indonesia: Pusri is facing a problem, say sources. It did not use up its quota of urea for export in 2011. At the same time, its license to export has expired. Sources say the paperwork to renew the license for 2012 is moving through the government bureaucracy. In the meantime, the tonnage that could not be sold because bids were far below the target price set by the government and Pusri will most likely be used to jump start the domestic market.