U.S. Gulf: Granular urea continued to skyrocket last week, and prices for NOLA barges increased to a range of $560-$595/st FOB, based on confirmed transactions. Most of the trades last week were in the $570/st FOB range. The lowest price in the range was at the beginning of the week and the highest at the end, and there were several at the high end.
Rumor held that one urea barge was traded at $600/st FOB, but no one was able to determine who the buyer was or where the barge was at the time of purchase, so that was not included in the range.
The number of NOLA barges available last week was small and may become even thinner this week. Demand remained very high due to the early spring.
Forward prices for April ran as high as $575/st FOB, which was also a sharp increase, and May reached $500/st FOB. Speculation was those prices will have to rise, and are likely to do so sometime soon.
A 40,000 mt urea vessel was scheduled to arrive or had just arrived late last week, but all of the product was planned in advance for terminals.
Eastern Cornbelt: Fueled by another surge in NOLA barge prices, the granular urea market firmed quickly in the Eastern Cornbelt region as the week advanced. The low end of the terminal range was quoted at $580/st FOB Cincinnati early in the week, but sources said the market had firmed $20/st by March 22. Illinois sources on Thursday also quoted the granular urea market solidly at the $600/st FOB mark to the dealer.
Western Cornbelt: Granular urea pricing had firmed to $595-$615/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt region, up some $30-$35/st from the previous week, with the low reported in Nebraska and the upper end in the Missouri market. An Iowa source described the urea market as “on fire,” and pegged the dealer price solidly at the $600/st FOB mark in his trade area at midweek.
Effective March 22, Koch’s urea postings FOB Enid and Inola/Catoosa, Okla., firmed to $595/st FOB.
California: The granular urea market was pegged at $550-$575/st FOB in California, depending on location. That range reflected a $40/st increase from last report, with several sources tagging the common dealer price in the $550-$555/st FOB range at mid-month.
Sources talked of limited product availability for prompt shipments from suppliers. “They’re all saying they’re going to run out,” said one source.
Pacific Northwest: The granular urea market was quoted in a broad range at $550-$590/st FOB in the region last week, depending on supplier and location. The low end of the range was for Simplot tons FOB Rivergate, Ore., which reflected a $10/st increase from the company’s Feb. 27 posting at that location. Washington sources quoted the market at $560-$590/st FOB for any available tons, but supplies were described as snug.
Delivered urea was pegged in the $585-$595/st range in the Pacific Northwest.
Western Canada: The granular urea market was steady at $655-$680/mt DEL in Western Canada.
India: The first IPL tender of 2012 closed Friday, March 23, as Green Markets went to press. In the run up to the tender, however, industry sources were not getting too excited. One trader said the malaise was due to a widely held belief that the whole tender would be an Iranian play.
Other traders agree that Yuzhnyy and the Arab producers would be hard pressed to match the price mostly likely to come from Iran. Sources say the top price IPL has indicated it would accept is $400/mt CFR. At that level, Yuzhnyy would have to drop to $340/mt FOB and the Arab producers would have to offer at $360-$380/mt FOB. Both ideas are way out of the current pricing ideas from those suppliers.
In the past few years India