U.S. Gulf: As the industry moves from spring toward summer, NOLA urea prices were steadily declining, with each week seeing lower pricing.
While upriver barges last week were called $670-$700/st FOB, NOLA prompt was giving way to lower numbers. Most said barges that were loaded and ready to go traded at a premium of $660-$675/st FOB, with the higher end at the beginning of the week. Those that were soon to load, within a week or so, were down to $630/st FOB.
End of May was called anywhere from $575-$640/st FOB. In reality, however, sources said buyers only want material that is loaded or ready to load. They do not want forward product or are afraid of the risk, as they fear rapid price erosion.
June, depending on time of the month, was called anywhere from $485-$550/st FOB.
CF last week acknowledged to analysts that urea prices are coming off from the high $600s/st FOB, but the company does not believe it will get into the $350/st FOB marginal producer level.
July-March urea imports were off 9 percent, to 4.89 million from the year-ago 5.36 million st. March was up 4 percent, to 717,215 st from 692,273 st.
Eastern Cornbelt: Urea prices continued to slide in the Eastern Cornbelt region, with sources quoting the regional market at $730-$740/st FOB at mid-month. An Illinois contact also quoted rail-delivered tons at the $740/st level for June delivery.
Western Cornbelt: With demand tapering off quickly, urea prices were sliding in the Western Cornbelt. Sources pegged the regional market at $730-$740/st FOB last week, depending on location.
Southern Plains: With demand ebbing and inventories improving, granular urea pricing to the dealer had reportedly slipped to $700-$710/st FOB the Tulsa, Okla., market at mid-month.
South Central: The urea market in the South Central region had reportedly slipped to $725-$730/st FOB regional terminals as the week progressed, down from $740-$765/st FOB earlier in May. “This is the time where I’m really fearful of the risk,” said one source. “From this time forward, it’s going to get tough because now is the time it’s fixing to drop, seriously.”
Sources talked of a slow pace in the region in mid-May, with cooler weather and dry conditions slowing rice development and topdress activity.
“Corn was fast, and rice is slow,” observed one contact, who said growers haven’t yet hit the big run on urea and ammonium sulfate for the first application on rice. An Arkansas source said it would be another week before urea movement picks up on rice in that location, while Louisiana sources said growers were just beginning to put down some urea on rice last week.
Southeast: The granular urea market had reportedly drifted to the $710/st level or lower FOB most port terminals in the Southeast, with little demand. Most of the spring fertilizer work was finished n the region, though one North Carolina source said his trade area will likely see another three weeks of moderate to good sales, depending on weather.
India: The STC talks closed Tuesday. In the end, STC scaled back its purchases to 690,000 mt.
Sources say the decision came when 10 companies stepped forward and accepted the counter bid. In many cases the price difference was more than $15/mt.
Observers noted that the willingness of the companies to accept the $535-$540/mt CFR price told STC that the traders and producers saw a downward shift occurring in the market.
Awards to specific companies, as supplied by various sources, vary in exact quantities. What everyone agreed on, however, is the final take of 690,000 mt.