U.S. Gulf: The good news, according to some sellers last week, was that barges were moving. The bad news was that prices were much lower.
Price ideas on Tuesday were in the $330s/st FOB, and by Thursday were in the $320s/st FOB. Generally, recent trades were put between $322-$338/st FOB, with the most recent in the $320s/st FOB.
Upriver barges were garnering a significant premium, netting back to the $340s/st FOB at NOLA.
Sources expected the next NOLA prompt trades to be within the $320-$325/st FOB range.
Nothing new was heard for thinly-traded prills. While some felt those numbers would have to come down in order to attract new business, others disagreed, saying it is a small and specialty market. Sources continued to call it $350-$355/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt: Sources continued to report slipping prices for urea in the Eastern Cornbelt. The dealer market was quoted at $415-$435/st FOB in the region last week, with the low out of spot river locations and the upper numbers inland.
Western Cornbelt: Granular urea pricing remained in the $390-$400/st range FOB St. Louis, Mo., with the upper end of the regional range pegged in the $410-$420/st FOB range out of inland terminals.
Sources quoted the Tulsa, Okla., urea market in the $380-$390/st FOB range last week.
California: Sources quoted the terminal market for granular urea at the $480/st FOB mark on the low end in California, with rail-delivered urea pegged as low as $450/st. “Few want to buy even at these levels,” said one source. “People just prefer to buy local tons as needed instead of committing to rail, which they fear will fall further.”
Effective May 2, Agrium’s granular urea postings in California dropped to $485/st FOB West Sacramento; $495/st FOB Hanford and Richvale; $520/st truck-DEL in Central California; $530/st truck-DEL in Northern California; and $540/st truck-DEL in Southern California.
Pacific Northwest: Sources quoted the urea market at $485-$500/st FOB in the Pacific Northwest, down roughly $15-$20/st from last report. Rail-delivered urea pricing had fallen even more, to $480-$495/st in the region, depending on location. “There are traders out there wanting to dump urea,” said one contact. “If you can wait and order rail, just name your price.”
Western Canada: Western Canada sources quoted the granular urea market at $565/mt FOB and $585-$600/mt DEL in the region, while dealer postings remained in the $610-$635/mt DEL range, depending on location.
Pakistan: The only ray of sunshine for the urea industry came from the TCP call for a tender for 50,000 mt to close June 5. The tonnage called for is the remainder of the 130,000 mt the Pakistan government authorized TCP to import for this season.
Sources say the current weakness in the market would make the Pakistan finance ministry happy. At the same time, the relatively small amount being purchased would not affect the global market.
The gamble TCP is taking is that an Indian tender is expected to be called by the end of this or early next month. If the Indian tender closes near the same time as the TCP tender, said one source, TCP may have to face a urea market on the way up.
In other news, Engro Corporation, the parent company of Engro Fertilizers, said on April 30 that continued gas curtailments in Pakistan resulted in low urea production for the first three months of 2013.
While urea production remained stagnant at 1 million mt from January through March, overall industry sales increased from 1 million mt in 2012 to 1.3 million mt this year due to better crop economics driven by enhanced wheat support prices.
Engro said it