U.S. Gulf: While granular prompt barge prices bounced around last week, they ultimately settled in the prior week’s range of $288-$298/st FOB. Most trades, however, were put in the $290s/st FOB. One player said most sellers were holding firm on prompt product toward the high end of the range.
April was reported in the $280s/st FOB, with May falling off into the $270s/st FOB.
Prills spanned a broader range, with some arguing that the prill market was following granular down. Prilled urea was called $300-$320/st FOB.
July-January urea imports were up 1 million st over the year-ago period, or 27 percent, to 4.64 million st from the year-ago 3.64 million st. January imports were up 29 percent, to 774,394 st from the year-ago 602,617 st.
YTD Chinese imports were 889,242 st, up from the year-ago 526,955 st. Other countries with big increases were from the Middle East: Qatar at 976,131 st versus the year-ago 802,367 st; UAE at 487,510 st versus 235,414 st; Oman at 223,118 st versus 34,232 st; and Bahrain at 291,004 st versus 241,895 st. Even Egypt was up, at 117,279 versus the year-ago 44,525 st.
Eastern Cornbelt: The granular urea market was reported in a broad range in the Eastern Cornbelt last week, from a low of $340/st FOB Cincinnati, Ohio, to a high of $360-$370/st FOB out of inland terminals.
Western Cornbelt: Urea was a “hot topic” in the region last week, according to one source, with terminal prices remaining under pressure due to a softer NOLA barge market.
“Some of the low urea prices you hear are April/May quotes,” he said, adding that some regional suppliers with inventories were “matching up” to meet the lower levels, while others are pricing “tons that are not here yet.”
The granular urea market was pegged at $345-$365/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt last week, depending on location, with the low end reported out of spot Mississippi River locations.
Northern Plains: The granular urea market had reportedly slipped to $335-$355/st FOB the Twin Cities for river-open tons. Delivered urea was reported in the $390-$405/st range in the Dakotas, with the upper end also reported on an FOB basis at Carrington, N.D.
Great Lakes: The granular urea market had reportedly slipped to $375-$385/st FOB in the Great Lakes region, with the low reported in Wisconsin and FOB Maumee, Ohio. Michigan sources pegged the dealer market at $380/st FOB Courtright and $385/st FOB Webberville, Mich.
Northeast: Granular urea pricing had dropped significantly in the Northeast, fueled by a softening NOLA barge market. Sources quoted the urea market at $370/st FOB Fairless, Penn., down some $10-$15/st from last report. Out of East Liverpool, Ohio, the urea market had reportedly slipped to as low as $350-$355/st FOB last week.
China: Sources say producers have become resigned to prices in the $270s/mt FOB for prills, and right around $290/mt FOB for granular. Unfortunately for the producers, traders report that bids are coming in for much lower prices.
Early last week, producers were saying April prilled tons would be sold at $280-$285/mt FOB. Sources say this pricing idea seems based on the notion that India will be calling a tender by April 15. Adding to the bullish attitude is the growing number of phone calls and emails by end-users looking for cargoes.
As optimistic as the producers are, however, sources say prices are now on a downward trajectory. One trader noted that the fate of the Chinese urea producers is currently in the hands of the Indians. No matter how many sales China has to other buyers, he said, India is the one big buyer that will set the tone for prices and availabi