The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s March 31 Prospective Plantings report estimates corn planted area at 91.1 million acres this year, down 0.9 million from the agency’s February outlook (GM Feb. 19, p. 1) and below analyst expectations, but up 325,000 acres from last year.
The low acreage was a surprise, as Bloomberg analyst surveys conducted ahead of the report showed expectations of corn planted area ranging from 92-94.5 million acres, with the average at 93.1 million acres.
Planting intentions for corn are up or unchanged in 24 of the 48 estimating states, USDA said. The largest increases are expected in the Dakotas, where producers intend to plant a combined 8.90 million acres, an increase of 2.00 million acres from 2020. Producers across most of the Cornbelt intend to plant fewer acres than last year. If realized, the planted area of corn in Idaho and Oregon will be the largest on record.
Soybean planted area is projected at 87.6 million acres, down a full 2.4 million acres from the February outlook, but up five percent from last year. As with corn, the soybean projection fell below analyst projections, which ranged from 88.9-91.3 million acres, according to the Bloomberg survey. If realized, USDA said this year’s planted soybean acreage will be the third highest on record.
All wheat planted area for 2021 is estimated at 46.4 million acres, up five percent from 2020, but the fourth lowest all wheat planted area since records began in 1919. USDA’s wheat acreage forecast outpaced Bloomberg’s analyst survey, which yielded an estimated range of 43.0-46.6 million acres.
The 2021 winter wheat planted area, at 33.1 million acres, is up 9 percent from last year and up 3 percent from the previous estimate, but represents the seventh- lowest planted acreage on record, USDA said. Area planted to other spring wheat for 2021 is estimated at 11.7 million acres, down 4 percent from 2020, while durum wheat is expected to total 1.54 million acres in 2021, down 9 percent from last year.
All cotton planted area for 2021 is estimated at 12.0 million acres, down less than 1 percent from last year. Upland area is estimated at 11.9 million acres, up slightly from 2020, while American Pima area is estimated at only 142,000 acres, down 30 percent from 2020. All rice planted acreage was projected at 2.71 million acres, down 11 percent from last year.
USDA also released its quarterly Grain Stocks report on March 31, which showed corn stocks as of March 1 totaling 7.70 billion bushels, down 3 percent from the same time last year. Soybean stocks were reported at 1.56 billion bushels, down 31 percent from March 1, 2020, while all wheat stocks totaled 1.31 billion bushels as of March 1, down 7 percent from a year ago.