USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) on Sept. 10 boosted yield and acreage estimates for corn. Analysts had expected the increases after USDA on Sept. 1 announced plans to revisit those figures in its September Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports (GM Sept. 3, p. 27).
Corn production for grain is now forecast at 15.0 billion bushels, up 2 percent from the previous forecast and up 6 percent from 2020. Based on conditions as of Sept. 1, corn yields are expected to average 176.3 bushels/acre, up 1.7 bushels from the previous forecast and up 4.3 bushels from last year.
Total area planted to corn, at 93.3 million acres, is up 1 percent from the previous estimate and up 3 percent from the previous year. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 85.1 million acres, also up 1 percent from the previous forecast and up 3 percent from the previous year. NASS said acreage updates were made in several states based on a thorough review of all available data.
USDA said this month’s 2021/22 U.S. corn outlook is for larger supplies, increased feed and residual use, greater exports, and higher ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2021/22 were 70 million bushels higher based on a lower use forecast for 2020/21, with reductions in corn used for ethanol and exports. With supply rising more than use, USDA said ending stocks were increased by 166 million bushels, to 1.4 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers was lowered 30 cents, to $5.45/bushel.
Soybean production is now forecast at 4.37 billion bushels, up 1 percent from the previous forecast and up 6 percent from 2020. Based on conditions as of Sept. 1, yields are expected to average 50.6 bushels/acre, up 0.6 bushel from the previous forecast and up 0.4 bushel from 2020.
Total area planted to soybeans this year is estimated at 87.2 million acres, down less than 1 percent from the previous estimate but up 5 percent from the previous year. Area harvested for beans in the U.S. is now forecast at 86.4 million acres, also down less than 1 percent from the previous forecast but up 5 percent from 2020.
The soybean export forecast was raised 35 million bushels on increased supplies and lower prices. Ending stocks were projected at 185 million bushels, up 30 million from last month, with the U.S. season-average soybean price now forecast at $12.90/bushel, down 80 cents.
All cotton production is forecast at 18.5 million 480-pound bales, up 7 percent from the previous forecast and up 27 percent from 2020. Cotton yields are expected to average 895 pounds/acre based on conditions as of Sept. 1, up 95 pounds from the previous forecast and up 48 pounds from 2020.
All cotton planted area totaled 11.2 million acres, down 5 percent from the previous forecast and down 7 percent from 2020. All cotton area harvested is forecast at 9.92 million acres, down 4 percent from the previous forecast but up 20 percent from 2020.
The outlook for the 2021/22 U.S. wheat crop is for reduced supplies, slightly higher domestic use, unchanged exports, and decreased ending stocks, USDA said. Wheat imports were reduced by 10 million bushels, to 135 million, with exports unchanged at 875 million bushels. Projected 2021/22 ending wheat stocks were reduced 12 million bushels, to 615 million, some 27 percent below last year and the lowest in eight years.
The projected 2021/22 season-average farm price for wheat was lowered $0.10 per bushel, to $6.60 on reported NASS prices to date and price expectations for the remainder of 2021/22.