In its Sept. 12 Crop Production report, USDA said U.S. corn production is forecast at 10.7 billion bushels, down less than 1 percent from the August forecast and down 13 percent from 2011. This represents the lowest production in the U.S. since 2006.
USDA dropped its projected average corn yield again, to 122.8 bushels/acre based on conditions as of Sept. 1, down 0.6 bushel from the August forecast and 24.4 bushels below the 2011 average. If realized, this will be the lowest average yield since 1995, USDA noted. Corn area harvested for grain is forecast at 87.4 million acres, unchanged from the August forecast but up 4 percent from 2011.
“The Sept. 1 corn objective yield data indicate the lowest number of ears per acre since 2005 for the combined 10 objective yield states (Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin),” the report said.
Referring to August weather conditions, USDA said “limited, early-month precipitation in portions of the Corn Belt was beneficial to late-planted fields, but did little to help drought-affected, mature corn.” USDA noted that “producers in some states chose to chop corn for silage or bale it for hay as it would provide better nutrition for livestock given crop conditions this year.”
USDA also released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Sept. 12, which projected corn ending stocks for 2012/13 at 733 million, up 83 million bushels. The season-average farm price for corn was projected at $7.20-$8.60 per bushel, down 30 cents on both ends of the range from last month.
USDA estimated U.S. soybean production at 2.63 billion bushels, down 2 percent from August and down 14 percent from last year. Based on Sept. 1 conditions, soybean yields are expected to average 35.3 bushels/acre, down 0.8 bushel from last month and down 6.2 bushels from last year.
Compared with last month, USDA’s yield forecasts for soybeans are lower or unchanged across the Great Plains and most of the Corn Belt “as lingering drought conditions continued to hamper yield expectations.” Soybean area for harvest in the U.S. is forecast at 74.6 million acres, unchanged from August but up 1 percent from last year.
The WASDE report projected soybean ending stocks at 130 million bushels for 2012/13, down 15 million from last month, while the season average soybean price remained unchanged from last month at $15-$17 per bushel.
All U.S. cotton production is forecast at 17.1 million 480-pound bales, down 3 percent from last month, but up 10 percent from last year. Yield is expected to average 786 pounds/harvested acre, down 4 pounds from last year. The WASDE report estimated cotton ending stocks at 5.3 million bales, while the marketing-year average price received by cotton producers was narrowed to 62-78 cents per pound.
U.S. rice production is forecast at 196 million cwt, up 3 percent from August and up 6 percent from last year. USDA said rice planted area is now estimated at 2.70 million acres, up 1 percent from the June estimate and up slightly from last year. Area for harvest is expected to total 2.68 million acres, up 1 percent from June and 2 percent higher than 2011.
Based on conditions as of Sept. 1, the average U.S. rice yield is forecast at a record high 7,334 pounds/acre, up 138 pounds from August and up 267 pounds from last year. Record high rice yields are forecast in Louisiana and Texas, USDA said.
The 2012/13 all rice season-average farm price is forecast at $13.70-$14.70 per cwt, down 40 cents per cwt on each end of the range from last month.