USDA, in its Aug. 10 Crop Production report, said U.S. corn production is now forecast at 10.8 billion bushels, down 13 percent from 2011 and the lowest production since 2006. Based on conditions as of Aug. 1, corn yields are expected to average 123.4 bushels/acre – down roughly 23 bushels from last month, and 43 bushels below the June estimate. The yield projection also reflects a drop of 23.8 bushels from 2011. If realized, USDA said this will be the lowest average yield since 1995. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 87.4 million acres, down 2 percent from the June forecast, but up 4 percent from 2011.
USDA said heat and drought has “devastated pastures and summer crops in a broad area covering the Nation’s Heartland, including large sections of the Plains, Midwest, and mid-South.” July rainfall totaled less than 50 percent of normal in the hardest hit areas, USDA reported, while July temperatures averaged 4-8 degrees above normal across much of the Plains and Midwest. “As a result, corn and soybean conditions fell to levels comparable to those observed at the height of the historic 1988 drought,” the report said.
“By July 29, 2012, the percentage of U.S. soybeans rated very poor to poor – 37 percent – matched the highest value observed at any point in 1988.” Soybean production is forecast at 2.69 billion bushels, down 12 percent from last year. Based on Aug. 1 conditions, soybean yields are expected to average 36.1 bushels/acre, down 5.4 bushels from last year. If realized, the average yield will be the lowest since 2003. Soybean area for harvest is forecast at 74.6 million acres – down 1 percent from June, but up 1 percent from 2011.
All cotton production is forecast at 17.7 million 480-pound bales, up 13 percent from last year. Cotton yields are expected to average 784 pounds/acre, down 6 pounds from last year. Producers expect to harvest 10.8 million acres of all cotton, up 14 percent from 2011. All wheat production, at 2.27 billion bushels, is up 2 percent from the July forecast and up 13 percent from 2011. As of Aug.1, the average U.S. wheat yield is forecast at 46.5 bushels/acre, up 0.9 bushel from last month and up 2.8 bushels from last year.
Rice production is forecast at 190 million cwt, up 3 percent from last year. Rice area for harvest is expected to total 2.64 million acres, unchanged from June, but 1 percent higher than 2011. Based on conditions as of Aug. 1, the average U.S. rice yield is forecast at 7,196 pounds/acre, up 129 pounds from last year.