USDA projects more corn, less soy, wheat, cotton

Arlington, Va.—USDA reported that U.S. farmers are expected to plant about 90 million acres of corn in 2016, up from 88 million acres last year and the first acreage increase since 2012’s record 97.291 million acres. The projection was made on Feb. 25 at the opening session of USDA’s annual Agricultural Outlook forum in Arlington, Va. Corn yields are expected to be down slightly, at 168 bushels/acre compared with last year’s 168.4 bushels/acre, while total corn production is forecast at 13.825 billion bushels, up 2 percent from 2015, but below 2014’s record 14.216 billion bushels. The 2016 soybean crop is projected at 82.5 million acres and 3.81 billion bushels, down slightly from last year on both fronts, while soybean yields are expected to come in at 46.7 bushels/acre, compared with 48 bushels/acre in 2015. Total wheat acres are forecast at 51 million, down from 54.6 million in 2015, with declines projected for both winter and spring wheat due to low prices. Total wheat production is forecast at 1.991 billion bushels, down about 3 percent from last year’s crop, while average wheat yields are expected to climb to 45.9 bushels/acre from last year’s 43.6 bushels/acre. All U.S. cotton production is estimated at 12.9 million bales, down fully 21 percent from last year, with planted cotton acreage falling 22 percent to 8.6 million acres. The 2016 U.S. rice crop was projected at 2.8 million acres, up from 2.61 million acres last year, with total rice production forecast at 211.5 million cwt, up 10 percent from 192.3 million cwt in 2015. Average rice yields are projected at 7,633 pounds/acre, up from 7,470 pounds/acre last year. Average crop cash prices will also decline from last year, with corn falling to $3.45/bushel from $3.60/bushel; soybeans to $8.50/bushel from $8.80/bushel; wheat to $4.20/bushel from $5/bushel; and cotton to 59.5 cents/pound from 61.3 cents/pound. Cash prices for rice are expected to hold steady at $12.90/cwt. USDA said large supplies of all crops should continue to pressure prices, and farm debt as a percentage of income is projected to rise to the highest level since 1984. “Lower commodity prices are expected to idle some land, which had been brought into production as commodity prices rose through 2012,” said Robert Johansson, USDA’s chief economist.