American farmers will plant more corn, soybeans, and wheat this spring, with Russia’s war in Ukraine keeping crop prices high and supplies tight, USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer said at the agency’s annual Outlook Forum on Feb. 23.
Corn plantings are projected at 91 million acres, up 2.4 million acres from last year and the highest planted acreage since 2021. USDA said reduced corn exports from Ukraine and strong demand from China should boost corn exports by 275 million bushels this year, with feed and residual use up 6%.
Soybean planted acreage is estimated at 87.5 million acres, unchanged from last year, but a projected yield increase to 52 bushels/acre from last year’s 49.5 bushels/acre should boost soybean annual production in 2023.
Planted wheat acreage is projected at 49.5 million acres, up 3.8 million acres from last year due to high global prices and tight supplies, partially due to the ongoing war in Ukraine. US cotton plantings, by contrast, are expected to decline by almost 21%, dropping to 10.9 million acres in 2023.
Total planted acreage in the US in 2023 is expected to be up nearly 3% from 2022. Corn futures fell as much as 1% after the estimates were released, dropping to $6.675/bushel in Chicago. Soybean futures also fell, while wheat and cotton rose, with cotton futures moving up as much as 1.6%.
Crop prices, while still high, are projected to decline in 2023, USDA said. Corn prices are estimated to drop more than 16%, with the season-average price projected at $5.60/bushel. Soybean prices are expected to fall nearly 10%, to a season-average price of $12.90/bushel, while the season-average price for wheat is projected at $8.50/bushel, down almost 6%.
The lower crop prices will also drive farm income lower, USDA said, with 2023 net cash farm income falling nearly 23% from 2022’s record levels, and net farm income dropping approximately 18%. While down from last year, Meyer stressed that US farm income will still be strong, driven by thin global supply.
“The supplies that are available for purchase on the global market remain tight,” he said.
The estimates are USDA’s first acreage outlook for the spring season, with more definitive estimates based on thousands of farmer surveys due in the Prospective Plantings report on March 31.