USDA’s March 28 Prospective Plantings report estimates planted 2024 acreage at 90.0 million acres for corn, 86.5 million acres for soybeans, 47.5 million acres for wheat, and 10.7 million acres for cotton. Compared with last year, the projections reflect a 5% drop for corn, a 3% increase for soybeans, a 4% drop for wheat, and a 4% increase for cotton.
Corn futures for May delivery jumped as much as 5% on the Chicago Board of Trade – their biggest daily gain since November – while soybeans fluctuated between gains and losses. USDA’s corn acreage estimate fell below the average of analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg, and also came in under USDA’s February estimate of 91 million acres (GM Feb. 16, p. 1).
The reduction in corn acreage comes at a time when corn prices are under downward pressure amid ample global supplies and sluggish demand for US exports, Bloomberg reported, with soybeans trading at relatively higher prices.
Underscoring how ample corn supplies are, US inventories on March 1 totaled 8.35 billion bushels, up 13% from a year ago, USDA said in a separate report. The amount of grain held in farms was 24% larger.
Compared with last year, USDA said planted corn acreage is expected to be down or unchanged in 38 of the 48 estimating states, while planted soybean acreage is up or unchanged in 24 of the 29 estimating states. The 86.5 million acres of estimated soybean acreage is down from USDA’s February estimate of 87.5 million acres.
USDA’s wheat acreage estimate is roughly in line with the average analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Plummeting prices and lukewarm global demand have made wheat less attractive for planting, Bloomberg reported, as US wheat faces strong competition from cheaper supplies worldwide, including from the politically volatile Black Sea region.
Area planted to rice, a big user of topdress urea, is estimated at 2.93 million acres this year, up 1 percent from last year’s 2.89 million acres and slightly above USDA’s February estimate of 2.9 million acres.